Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
954 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2009

.UPDATE...SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING OFFSHORE AND EARLIER
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SE GA HAVE EXITED THE SCENE. MEAN LAYER
(1000-500 MB) RIDGE STRETCHES ACRS CNTRL FL. COLD FRONT EXTENDS
THRU UPSTATE SC...NORTH GA TO NEAR MS/LA GULF COAST. ISOLD STORMS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE TRAVELING OVER THE MEAN RIDGE AND ARE JUST
OUTSIDE THE CWA ATTM. AS THE FRONT SINKS SWD SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER NRN TIER. WILL KEEP CURRENT POP
DISTRIBUTION OF 80% NORTH TO 30% EXTREME SOUTH. AS FOR THE 12Z
SOUNDING...ITS MOIST (PW IS 1.73 INCHES) AND UNSTABLE. SFC BASED
CAPE IS OVER 3000 J/KG WITH NO CAP. SLOW MOVING SHRA/TS (10 MPH)
WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MOTION WILL BE AROUND THE RIDGE
OR TOWARD THE NORTH ACRS SRN TIER AND TOWARD THE NE ACRS NRN TIER.

&&

.AVIATION...COMBINATION OF APPROACHING FRONT AND DAYTIME HEATING
WILL GIVE WAY TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE OVER SE GA. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD BEGIN 16-18Z ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPO GROUPS ARE IN ALL TAFS
FOR AFTN CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...STILL RATHER QUIET THIS MORNING WITH BUOYS REPORTING
GENERALLY SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KT. SEAS ARE RUNNING 3-4 FT. CONDS
WILL DETERIORATE EARLY MONDAY WHEN FRONT PUSHES THRU AND STRONG NE
FLOW SETS UP. CURRENT GALE WATCH LOOKS GOOD FOR NRN WATERS AND SCA
FOR SRN TWO LEGS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  83  55  68  50 /  80  60  60  40
SSI  81  60  67  59 /  60  70  70  60
JAX  84  63  69  58 /  50  50  70  60
SGJ  83  67  71  64 /  40  50  70  60
GNV  87  64  75  58 /  50  50  60  50
OCF  87  66  77  60 /  40  50  60  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

MKT/RK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
504 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2009

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-180915-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
504 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2009

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR FLORIDA WATERS...

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE TODAY WITH
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE GEORGIA
PORTION. WITH THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING MOIST AND UNSTABLE...ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS. ACTIVITY WILL
BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE OVER THE FLORIDA PORTION THIS
AFTERNOON BUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP INLAND AND THEN WORK THEIR WAY BACK TOWARD
THE COAST IN THE EVENING HOURS.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE FLORIDA
WATERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST SURF ZONE FORECAST FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS...

AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TO THE NORTH AND PROVIDE FOR A STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST FLOW
REGIME. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED HAZARDS WILL BE IN THE MARINE
ENVIRONMENT...BUT SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE
MAINLAND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FLORIDA COASTAL SECTIONS WHERE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
WESTWARD AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. DEPENDING UPON WHETHER IT
TRACKS INTO THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN GULF IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
AT THIS POINT BUT WILL HAVE RAMIFICATIONS ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER.
SHOULD IT TRACK INTO THE EASTERN GULF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE PREVALENT THROUGH WEEKS END WITH A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK LEADING TO DRIER CONDITIONS. THESE DETAILS WILL BE
REFINED WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.

AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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