Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
225 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2009

...SEVERE WEATHER FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES...

.SHORT TERM...LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL GA MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH SOUTHEAST AL
THROUGH THE WESTERN PANHANDLE OF FL AND THE GULF COAST OF
MISSISSIPPI. A WARM FRONT IS DEPICTED THROUGH EAST CENTRAL GA AND
THE LOWLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS CONFIGURATION LEAVES OUR AREA
FIRMLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WITH STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND TEMPERATURE ALREADY ABOVE FORECAST HIGHS IN SOME CASES WITH
LOWER 80S PRESENT. A NEW TORNADO WATCH BOX HAS BEEN ISSUED WHICH
ENCOMPASSES THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF OUR GA COUNTIES AND RUNS
THROUGH 7 PM. INITIAL WAVE OF CONVECTION ALONG SLOWLY MOVING FRONT
WILL LIKELY JUST CLIP THE GA PORTION...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

BIGGEST CHANGE AMONG THE MODELS FOR THE 12Z CYCLE HAS BEEN A
SLIGHT SLOWING TREND WRT STRONG CLOSED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM WILL ACT AS THE IMPETUS
FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF THE SQUALL LINE AND THE BEST CHANCE AT OUR
AREA SEEING SEVERE WIND GUSTS. WITH THIS NEW TINING...WE ARE NOW
LOOKING AT SOME DEVELOPMENT TO MATERIALIZE LATE THIS EVENING BUT
THE BULK OF THE SECONDARY FRONT ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH AFTER 06Z
AND LIKELY PERSIST WELL INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH FIRST GOOD 850 WIND CORE WILL MISS THE AREA TO THE NORTH
AND EAST....MODELS AGREE ON A SECONDARY SURGE OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS
MOVING THROUGH BY 09Z...AFFECTING MAINLY THE SUWANNEE VALLEY TO
BRUNSWICK AND POINTS SOUTHWARD WITH SEVERE GUST POTENTIAL. 500 MB
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE -15 TO -17 DEGREE RANGE WHICH MAKES HAIL A
DISTINCT LIKELIHOOD DESPITE SUSPECT LAPSE RATES IN THE HAIL GROWTH
ZONE.

FOR THE GRIDS...AS MENTIONED...MAIN CHANGE HAS BEEN TO EXTEND
HIGHEST POPS INTO THE 12Z TO 15Z TIMEFRAME ON SUNDAY AND HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO NEAR CATEGORICAL FOR MOST AREAS. DESPITE COOLER
AIR RUSHING IN...SREF THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES REMAIN NEAR
STEADY STATE DURING THIS PERIOD AND HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM.

ONCE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF COAST...FRONT WILL EXIT THE
REGION VERY QUICKLY SUN AFTERNOON WITH CONCERN SHIFTING TO
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN WRAP AROUND ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR
FROZEN PRECIP BEFORE MOISTURE SCOURS OUT. AT THIS POINT...FEEL
WITH STRENGTH OF UPPER LOW...LOW END PRECIP CHANCES ARE
WARRANTED...ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY AS HIGH AS MOSGUIDE INDICATES.
THICKNESS VALUES FROM ALL MODELS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SN
AFTER 18Z ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...LOWEST 2M TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN MUCH
TO WARM INITIALLY AND WILL CARRY JUST RAIN THROUGH 00Z.
THEREAFTER...AS SURFACE TEMPS COOL...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF CHANGEOVER BEFORE PRECIP ENDS. FOR NOW...WILL JUST INDICATE
A MIXTURE IN THE GRIDS. WITH UNUSUAL STRENGTH AND DEGREE OF COLD
AIR ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS AND FORECASTS
WILL NEED TO BE SCRUTINIZED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES.

UPPER LOW FINALLY SHEARS AND LIFTS OUT MONDAY WITH DRIER BUT
COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA. BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH TEMPS
ONLY IN THE MID 50S WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE A RAW DAY FOR SURE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE ARE FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH
CONTINUED FLOW INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP AREAS FROM
REACHING THEIR MIN TEMP POTENTIAL...BUT STILL MAY NEED A FREEZE
WATCH WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...LOOKS LIKE A LONG AND NEEDED RESPITE FROM ACTIVE
WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND TEMPERATURES MODERATE
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NO SIG CHANGES PLANNED
TO THE EXTENDED PORTION.

&&

.AVIATION...AS EXPECTED WINDS ARE SUSTAINED SW AROUND 16-18G30KT AT
TIMES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ANTICIPATE CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION MOVE INTO CWA
AFTER ABOUT 06Z THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING. LOW CIGS IN LOW END MVFR
RANGE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY STILL EXPECTED SUN MORNING AS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION/STRONG LIFT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS CONSISTENTLY IN THE 15-18 KT RANGE AND GUSTING JUST
OVER 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING UP TO 4 FT AT THIS TIME. WILL RAISE AN SCA
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING AND CONT THE
SCA FOR OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO MON NIGHT. WILL MENTION ONCL GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE POSSIBLE ON SUN WHICH MAY CONT FOR ABOUT 6-9 HRS. WINDS
AND SEAS SUBSIDE TUE AS LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES OUT AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LOW RH CONDS DEVELOPED BY NOT ENOUGH FOR A SHORT
FUSE WARNING. DEWPOINTS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. DRIER
AIR FINALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MON AND WINDS MAY HELP MEET
CRITERIA AS WELL SO WILL PLAN TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MOST
OF NE FL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  77  47  50  31 /  60  80  60  20
SSI  73  50  54  34 /  20  70  80  20
JAX  80  54  55  32 /  10  60  80  10
SGJ  78  54  59  35 /  10  50  70  10
GNV  80  53  56  31 /  10  60  80  10
OCF  80  55  59  32 /  10  50  80  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-
     DUVAL-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-
     SUWANNEE-UNION.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-
     CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-
     NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR APPLING-
     ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF
     DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

DEESE/SHASHY/KEEGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1200 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2009

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-010100-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
1200 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2009

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...TORNADO WATCH 42 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT MOST AREAS TODAY...

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND
ALONG THE FRONT...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE. STRONG
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN BUT THE STRONGEST STORMS
MAY ALSO PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. A TORNADO WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 7 PM FOR ATKINSON...COFFEE...
JEFF DAVIS...BACON...WAYNE...AND APPLING COUNTIES. PLEASE MONITOR
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FROM THIS OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THE DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

WINDS WILL BE INCREASING OUT AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM TODAY
AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST AREAS. DETAILS
CAN BE FOUND IN THE URGENT WEATHER MESSAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH WEST WINDS NEAR 20 MPH
AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME BUT SPOTTERS AND
EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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