Severe Thunderstorm Warning 270, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
240 PM EST WED DEC 2 2009

.SHORT TERM...TNGT THRU FRI NGT...SQUALL LINE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS FL PENINSULA AND SRN GA.  LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS DECREASING DYNAMIC SUPPORT OVER AREA (SHIFTING MORE OVER
ERN CAROLINAS)...MAY SEE SOME WEAKENING OF TSRA LATE IN THE DAY/INTO
EVNG AS ACTIVITY WORKS TWRD COAST. EVEN SO...WITH STRONG WINDS ABOVE
THE GROUND...MAY NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.
WILL GO WITH HIGH POPS THRU EVNG...DECREASING OVERNIGHT.

COLD FRONT FCST TO STALL OVER SCTRL FL. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THURS WITH SEASONAL TEMPS. MODEL GUID SHOWS BACKING FLOW ALOFT
INITIATING ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY THU NGT AND
FRI. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS LATE THU NGT WITH SLGT CHC OF
SHWRS OVER OUR SRN COUNTIES LATE.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND PCPN FRI AND FRI NGT GIVEN STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ENHANCED BY RRQ
OF STRONG UPPER JET. WILL RANGE POPS FRI FROM 20 AMG AREA TO 50 FL/GA
BORDER TO 70 GNV-SGJ SOUTHWARD. FOR FRI NGT...WILL RANGE POPS FROM
50 AMG AREA TO 80 GNV-SGJ SOUTHWARD. MAY EVEN SEE A FEW ELEV TSRA
BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE AT THE MOMENT. MODELS SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OF 1-3 INCHES ACRS NCTRL FL.

.LONG TERM...SAT-WED...PCPN GRADUALLY DIMINISHES LATER SAT...WITH
ONLY SOME COASTAL SHOWERS ANTICIPATED SUN GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING N OF THE REGION. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
OVER WEEKEND WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY...WITH TEMPS GETTING A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...OCNL MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR TAF SITES.
MAINLY EXPECTING IFR CONDITIONS IN THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
BTN 22Z AND 02Z TONIGHT. BEHIND THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ANTICIPATE OCNL MVFR CIGS FOR BETTER PART OF THE NIGHT BEFORE DRIER
LLVL AIR FILTERS IN ON THU. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER IFR CIGS IN TAFS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVY REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT/EARLY
THU. INITIALLY PREFERRED GFS WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT AND THEN BLENDING
WITH NAM. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TONIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND DECREASE. WINDS/SEAS WILL START TO DECREASE THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND GRADIENT WEAKENS. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS ANOTHER GULF SYSTEM AFFECTS THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  52  65  40  56 /  30   0  10  20
SSI  57  67  47  59 /  80   0  10  40
JAX  57  70  46  60 /  80  10  10  60
SGJ  63  70  52  63 /  80  10  20  70
GNV  58  71  47  60 /  80  10  20  70
OCF  59  72  48  60 /  80  10  20  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ALACHUA-BAKER-
BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-
PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-
     ATKINSON-BACON-CLINCH-COFFEE-ECHOLS-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ALTAMAHA
SOUND      GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-     ST
AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT
     20 NM.

&&

WOLF/SHASHY/PRESNALL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1100 AM EST WED DEC 2 2009

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-031000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
1100 AM EST WED DEC 2 2009

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA THROUGH 5 PM...

...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE...

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS...

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA
RIVER IN EXTREME NORTHWEST GLYNN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE TODAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST WITH A
SQUALL LINE CONTAINING STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF IT.
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES AS WELL AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
A PORTION OF THE AREA. DUE TO THE EXISTENCE OF A LOW LEVEL JET OVER
THE AREA...HEAVY SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OVER
40 MPH. THESE WINDS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MINOR DAMAGE.

ALTHOUGH THE MOST ORGANIZED STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SQUALL LINE...
ISOLATED DISCRETE CELLS MAY BECOME SEVERE AHEAD OF THE MAIN SQUALL
LINE.

RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TODAY. MAKE SURE YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALERT
FEATURE IS TURNED ON.

SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA EVEN OUTSIDE OF STORMS
BY LATE THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM. A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE GREATEST STORM TOTALS
EXPECTED OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY
OF NORTH FLORIDA. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO 2 INCHES IN
THESE AREAS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. DUE TO THE ADDITIONAL
RAINS...AREAS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN EXTREME NORTHWEST GLYNN
COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MAY CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE MINOR
FLOODING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AND A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SUNDAY
MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO ACTIVATE LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

CARROLL/SHASHY

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