Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
225 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2009

...DAILY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WHILE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY MOIST SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST GOMEX THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

MAX TEMPS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY AND WITH PWATS IN
THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH RANGE...EXPECT SCTD/NUMEROUS CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP MAINLY OVER INLD AREAS AS BOTH SBRZS WILL BECOME ACTIVE WITH
THE ATLC SBRZ MOVING INLD TO THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN WHILE THE
GOMEX SBRZ FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE I-75/US301 CORRIDOR WITH
OUTFLOWS AND BOUNDARY COLLISIONS TAKING OVER DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL DRIFT
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE DEEPER
SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY A SREF POP
DISTRIBUTION WHICH WAS ABOUT 10-20% HIGHER THAN GFS/NAM OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE. MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN COOL ENOUGH ALONG WITH DAILY SFC
BASED CAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-4000J RANGE TO SUPPORT SCTD STRONG TO
ISOLD SVR TSTMS EACH DAY WITH WET MICROBURSTS (GUSTY WINDS) THE MAIN
THREAT ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
SETTLING OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL SLOWLY
BRING POPS BACK TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY IN THE 40-50% RANGE. MAX TEMPS
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO TSRA IN TAFS MAINLY BETWEEN 20Z-00Z AS SEABREEZES
MOVE INLAND AND EVENTUALLY COLLIDE WITH STORM MOTION MOVING THE
STORMS BACK TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE BECOMING SOUTHEAST NEAR
THE COAST DUE TO PM SEABREEZES. SEAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY 2 TO 3 FEET
IN AN EASTERLY SWELL WITH PERIODS AROUND 9 SECONDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  92  69  91 /  40  50  20  60
SSI  76  91  75  88 /  40  40  20  40
JAX  73  93  72  92 /  50  60  40  60
SGJ  73  91  74  89 /  30  50  40  60
GNV  71  92  70  91 /  20  60  20  50
OCF  71  91  71  91 /  20  50  20  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

HESS/ZIBURA/KERNS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
520 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2009

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-260930-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
520 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2009

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY. A FEW
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND INTENSE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST SURF ZONE FORECAST FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY WITH AN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

JDS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
440 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2009

FLZ020-GAZ162-163-252130-
CLINCH-ECHOLS-HAMILTON-
440 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2009

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEASTERN
HAMILTON...SOUTHERN CLINCH AND EASTERN ECHOLS COUNTIES FOR STRONG
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 440 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 11 MILES WEST OF NEEDMORE...OR 10 MILES
NORTHEAST OF JASPER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND NEEDMORE AND FARGO THROUGH
530 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3098 8266 3066 8243 3059 8264 3060 8270
      3058 8270 3056 8273 3051 8286 3069 8298
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 237DEG 14KT 3063 8286

DEESE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
451 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2009

FLZ025-032-033-037-252130-
CLAY-DUVAL-PUTNAM-ST. JOHNS-
451 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2009

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CLAY...NORTHERN
PUTNAM...WESTERN ST. JOHNS AND SOUTHWESTERN DUVAL COUNTIES FOR STRONG
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 451 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 3 MILES EAST OF BOSTWICK...OR 7 MILES
NORTHWEST OF HASTINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND PALATKA...ORANGE MILLS...
EAST PALATKA...CARRAWAY...BOSTWICK...HASTINGS...GREEN COVE SPRINGS
AND PICOLATA THROUGH 530 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING
OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3021 8203 3022 8154 2963 8147 2959 8198
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 237DEG 7KT 2978 8159

ZIBURA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
456 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2009

FLZ024-GAZ165-166-252145-
COASTAL CAMDEN-INLAND CAMDEN-NASSAU-
456 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2009

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN NASSAU
AND CAMDEN COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

AT 456 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED OVER KINGSLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10
MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND KINGS
FERRY...KINGSLAND...WOODBINE...COLESBURG...HARRIETTS BLUFF AND KINGS
BAY BASE THROUGH 545 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3078 8147 3079 8148 3077 8149 3059 8180
      3074 8190 3097 8182 3104 8168 3082 8144
      3080 8144
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 244DEG 10KT 3079 8168

DEESE

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