Severe Thunderstorm Warning 203, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
248 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2009

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROF HAS FURTHER SHARPENED FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. WEAK UPPER HIGH HAS SHIFTED SE. ALTHO FLOW
HAS NOT BECOME MUCH MORE DIFFLUENT ALOFT...VORTICITY LOBES HAVE
BEGUN TO FORM AND ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF. SFC COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL OH TO N MS. AS A RESULT OF INCREASING
MID-LEVEL SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING
ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE...SW GA AND SE AL. IN FACT...A PRE-FRONTAL
SQUALL LINE HAS DEVELOPED FROM N OF KALB TO KPNS. IN OUR AREA...
MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN FIRING WITH SOME WIND GUSTS TO
40 KTS. TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF RAIN AREAS ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
90S.

.SHORT TERM...EXPECTED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IN INCREASE FROM
THE W THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. SOMEWHAT
CONCERNED WITH GFS AND NAM BOTH INDICATING RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ENTERING OUR W ZONES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH TAE...HAVE GONE 10% HIGHER THAN MOS POPS OVER
OUR W ZONES DURING THE EVENING...BUT MAY NEED TO ADJUST THIS UP A
BIT MORE PRIOR TO ISSUANCE.

AS FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SE INTO THE AREA ON SAT...BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL FOCUS ACROSS NE FL. MAY BE SOME STRONG STORMS IF
ACTIVITY HOLDS OFF UNTIL MORE HEATING OCCURS. FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA FOR SUN WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS
WILL DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM DURING THE DAYTIME
EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT MIN TEMPS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 60S
OVER OUR NW ZONES.

.LONG TERM...FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG
BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS OVER THE N ATLC. THIS WILL SPELL PROLONGED E
TO SE FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH MORNING E COAST SHOWERS BECOMING
AFTN INLAND TSTMS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AND NIGHTTIME LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE E COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...GUST TO 41 KTS LAST HOUR AT JIA PROMOTED US TO BUMP UP
TEMPO WIND GUSTS IN TS THIS AFTN. SCT PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE
AT ALL TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY VCSH TONIGHT AS PRE-FRONTAL
SQUALL LINE APPROACHES. THIS LINE WILL LIKELY LOSE SOME ENERGY WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT BELIEVE THAT ENOUGH DYNAMICAL SUPPORT
WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT VCSH.

&&

.MARINE...SSW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTN AND EVENING
IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING FRONT. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE TO CAP
WINDS AT 15 KTS OFFSHORE...JUST BELOW SCEC HEADLINE. FRONT WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND BECOME DIFFUSE SUN...THEN WINDS WILL VEER
AROUND TO ESE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE N ATLANTIC. ONSHORE
FLOW INCREASES MON THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SEAS INCREASING AS WELL DUE
TO LONG EASTERLY FETCH.

&&

.FIRE WX...AN HOUR OR TWO OF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 35% ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF OUR SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY
ZONES (HAMILTON...COLUMBIA AND SUWANNEE) SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  91  65  92 /  40  20  10  20
SSI  75  90  72  88 /  30  30  20  20
JAX  74  90  70  89 /  30  40  20  20
SGJ  75  87  72  87 /  20  50  30  40
GNV  73  88  69  89 /  30  60  30  30
OCF  74  87  70  89 /  30  60  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

CARROLL/ENYEDI/WALKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
500 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2009

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-181000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
500 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2009

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. STORMS WILL
BECOME NUMEROUS OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS...INTENSE
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2
INCHES IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG AND PRODUCE
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

MKT

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