Severe Thunderstorm Warning 199, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
257 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROF OVER THE E US HAS CONTINUED TO DIG. AS A
RESULT... DRY AIR ALOFT HAS MADE FURTHER PROGRESS INTO THE AREA.
SFC FRONT HAS SHIFTED S INTO OUR SE GA ZONES AND IS MARKED BY A
WIND SHIFT AND A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM NEAR KSSI
TO KAYS. OTHER MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ACROSS
NE FL...BUT DEEPER MOISTURE FEED HAS SHIFTED S OF THE AREA OVER
CENTRAL FL. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HELD DOWN IN MORE PERSISTENT
RAIN AREAS...BUT SUNNIER LOCALES HAVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
80S.

.SHORT TERM...GRADUAL REDUCTION IN POPS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE
SHORT TERM WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SW DURING THE MORNINGS
SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NE FL BY AFTN. LOWEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE OVER SE GA WHERE DRIER AIR WILL RESIDE. WILL NEED
TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE MCS FORMATION UPSTREAM FROM THE AREA WITH
THIS SCENARIO...BUT S PLAINS RIDGE MAY BUILD FAR ENUF E TO PREVENT
THIS. DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT SHOULD NOT GET TOO MUCH ABOVE CLIMO. NAM CONTINUES TO
BE A LITTLE TOO COOL WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS OVER NW ZONES...AND HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS MOS.

.LONG TERM...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE
AREA. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE N BY THU.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH RAIN
CHANCES NEAR NORMAL. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
EXISTING PACKAGE OTHER THAN TO TWEAK TEMPERATURES AND LOWER
NIGHTTIME POPS A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION...
NARROW LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE CURRENT ORIENTATION OF
THIS ACTIVITY DOES NOT PLACE ANY TERMINALS IN ANY DIRECT THREAT.
THIS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS TO INCLUDE
SPECIFICS ON CONVECTIVE IMPACT AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
LATE TONIGHT AT THE USUAL SUSPECTS...VQQ AND GNV. SSI WILL HAVE TO
CONTEND WITH SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS AS STRATUS CLOUDS
MOVE IN BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW JUST SOUTH OF THAT AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN FRONT OF IT AND WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND IT. WINDS
AHEAD OF IT WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA BUT SEAS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
4 FEET OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND
MORE SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  87  68  90 /  30  30  10  20
SSI  74  84  73  85 /  40  40  20  20
JAX  70  86  69  88 /  30  40  20  20
SGJ  71  84  73  86 /  40  50  20  30
GNV  69  87  69  90 /  30  50  20  30
OCF  70  87  70  90 /  30  60  30  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

CARROLL/SHULER/KERNS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
600 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2009

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-100955-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
600 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2009

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN TODAY WITH ISOLATED STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE...

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS TO OCCASIONALLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TRENTON TO ST AUGUSTINE. BY LATE
MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
IN THE STRONGER ACTIVITY. THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED
MINOR FLOODING OF MAINLY THE NORMAL FLOOD PRONE AREAS. IN ADDITION...
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS OVER 50 MPH...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO SLOWER MOVING STORMS. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE MAINLY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED
TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

ARS

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