Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
546 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2009

...TORNADO WATCH 90 IN EFFECT FOR SE GA THROUGH 8 PM EDT...

.UPDATE...HAVE EXTENDED LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR NE FL UNTIL 9 PM DUE
TO STRONG WINDS STILL BEING OBSERVED.

.SYNOPSIS...POTENT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO
SEVERELY IMPACT THE FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTH GA THIS AFTN WITH
ROTATING SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND LIKELY WIND DAMAGE.
ROTATION IS EVIDENT IN SEVERAL CELLS...AND A TORNADO WATCH WAS
RECENTLY ISSUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF SE GA THROUGH 8 PM EDT. THERE
APPEARS TO BE A MID LEVEL LOW TRACKING NE ACROSS CENTRAL GA THIS
AFTN WITH A TRAILING WAKE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM JUST N OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER SW TOWARD DESTIN. THE ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT IS STILL
NOTED UPSTREAM NEAR MOBILE BAY. WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LOCAL CWA WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS SSW 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH NOTED AT VALDOSTA AND CROSS CITY. TEMPS ARE RISING INTO
THE LOWER 80S WITH DEW PTS IN THE MID 60S.

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTN THROUGH TUE...
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE CLOSER TOWARD OUR WESTERN
GA COUNTIES THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH FRACTURED LINES
OF SHRA STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY WHERE
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY THIS AFTN WITH
LAPS CAPES NEAR 1500-2000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES -6 TO -7. ALTHOUGH
THE 12Z JAX RAOB INDICATED STRONG CAPPING OVER OUR FL ZONES...WILL
NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SUWANNEE
RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS ANOTHER LINE OF TSRA
MAY FORM AS LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY POPS CAPPING INVERSIONS. SUSPECT
MAIN TIME PERIOD OF TS IMPACT WILL NOW BE BETWEEN 21Z-03Z...THEN
RAIN DECREASING FROM THE NW THROUGH SUN EARLY MORNING. MAIN
CONVECTIVE CONCERNS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES...ALTHOUGH
LARGE HAIL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT TOR
WATCH FOR SE GA AND WILL INCLUDE STRONG TS WORDING FOR NE FL FOR NOW
WITH GUSTY WINDS.

SUN A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED WITH STRONG 850MB 40-50 KTS
LIKELY MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC IN THE AFTN. SUN NIGHT SFC HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE AREA FROM THE GULF WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW 40S
ACROSS SE GA...THE MON ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS WITH MAXES IN THE 70S
AND MINS MON NIGHT REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
INLAND. TUE ONSHORE FLOW AND RISING TEMPS WILL ENHANCE AFTN CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK FORCING ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES IN ADVANCE OF
WEAK APPROACHING FRONT POSSIBLY SPARKING SCT AFTN SHRA.

.LONG TERM...WED THROUGH SAT...
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
MID SHIFT. MEAN LAYER SWLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO
THE AREA AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WHICH ARE PROGGED TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/LOW 80S AND
MINS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...BREEZY IF NOT WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE FROM THE WEST THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
VFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR CATEGORY AFTER 00Z.
VCTS WORDING LOOKS GOOD UNTIL 00Z...WITH ESTABLISHED LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING EASTWARD BETWEEN 00Z AND 05Z. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY DOMINATE AFTER 00Z THROUGH 12Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING BY 12Z/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...SCA HEADLINES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS...AS
SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWING THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
POST-FRONTAL HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WX...HAVE EXPANDED FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO INCLUDE A FEW MORE
COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA. COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT...PRECEDED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG OR SEVERE. FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE...MUCH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL WORK INTO THE AREA.
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS FOR BOTH WINDS AND RH AS WINDS WILL LIKELY
SUSTAIN AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH POSSIBLE...COUPLED
WITH RH VALUES FOLLOWING TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35 PERCENT FOR THE ADVISORY
AREA.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  58  72  43  75 /  90   0   0   0
SSI  63  73  49  67 /  80  20   0   0
JAX  65  77  47  73 /  90  20   0   0
SGJ  67  76  51  69 /  80  40   0   0
GNV  65  76  47  78 /  90  30   0   0
OCF  67  76  47  79 /  90  40   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALACHUA-
     BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-
     HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR BAKER-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-
     HAMILTON-NASSAU-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

MZ

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