Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2009

...DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH WED...

.SHORT TERM...MEAN LAYER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A
RIDGE AXIS TO OUR SOUTH WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED WHICH WILL KEEP A
WARM WLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. A WEAK SFC FRONT OVER SOUTH GA WILL
SHIFT SWD TONIGHT AND LINGER OVER N-CENTRAL TUE TRAILED BY DRIER
AIR. THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CONCERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL
BE WET DOWNBURSTS DUE TO HIGH SFC CAPES AND HIGH PWATS SOUTH OF THE
SFC FRONT.

THIS EVENING DIVERGENCE WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA WITH STRONG
STORMS ALREADY FIRING OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND SW GA. EXPECT THIS
TYPE OF ACTIVITY TO INCREASE OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER THIS AFTN
AND IT WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY
REMAINS ELEVATED. DO NOT EXPECT AN EAST COAST SEABREEZE THIS AFTN
DUE TO MODERATE WLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS.

LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TUE OVER OUR GA ZONES FOLLOWING THE
FROPA...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED OVER OUR FL ZONES BY WED
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM IN LOW
90S TUE THEN MID TO UPPER 90S WED.

.LONG TERM...THU THROUGH MON...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
IN THE EXTENDED AS THE MEAN RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA WITH LIGHT WLY STEERING FLOW SUPPORTING CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA. SAT ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
AND LINGERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...AN EARLY START TO BENIGN TSRA ACTIVITY OVER THE FLORIDA
PORTION WITH VCTS LARGELY COVERING THE SCT ACTIVITY THUS FAR.
HOWEVER...MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACTIVITY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR
TO THE WEST PROMISES FOR A MORE ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND HAVE CONTINUED INCLUSION OF TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL SITES WITH
POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT GUSTS IN THE STRONGER ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...FORECAST BEGINNING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD WITH
TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CREATING
BORDERLINE SCA ACTIVITY EACH EVENING IN SURGE. TROUGH WILL BEGIN
TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
GRADIENT TO RELAX SLIGHTLY BUT SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  94  67  97 /  20  10  10   0
SSI  76  92  74  94 /  30  10  10   0
JAX  75  92  72  96 /  40  30  10  10
SGJ  77  88  74  92 /  50  50  30  20
GNV  75  89  72  95 /  50  50  20  20
OCF  75  87  72  92 /  50  60  40  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

ENYEDI/DEESE/KEEGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1120 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2009

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-301000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
1120 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2009

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS FROM GAINESVILLE
TO PALATKA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NEAR 1 T0 2 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN
MARION COUNTY...AND AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CONCERNS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. STORMS WILL MOVE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND BRING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

MKT/ABE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
422 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2009

FLZ036-037-292115-
ALACHUA-PUTNAM-
422 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2009

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN ALACHUA
AND WESTERN PUTNAM COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

AT 423 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF INTERLACHEN...MOVING EAST
AT 10 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
PUTNAM HALL...ORANGE HEIGHTS...MELROSE...JOHNSON...GROVE PARK...
FLORAHOME...INTERLACHEN...MANNVILLE AND CARRAWAY THROUGH 515 PM EDT.
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2946 8173 2947 8178 2948 8178 2948 8183
      2953 8184 2951 8199 2955 8222 2980 8222
      2977 8207 2976 8208 2972 8204 2975 8196
      2969 8163
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 289DEG 10KT 2966 8195

PETERSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
446 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2009

FLZ023-030>032-292130-
BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-UNION-
446 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2009

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN
BRADFORD...NORTHEASTERN UNION...NORTHWESTERN CLAY AND SOUTHEASTERN
BAKER COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
VALID UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 447 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF RAIFORD...MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND LAKE
BUTLER...JOHNSTOWN...RAIFORD...ELLERBEE...LAWTEY...MIDDLEBURG AND
KINGSLEY THROUGH 530 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2993 8188 3001 8239 3019 8240 3019 8185
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 269DEG 20KT 3010 8229

PETERSON

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