River Flood Warning 3, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
913 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST FLORIDA UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT...

.UPDATE...MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWING 1011 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS APALACHEE
BAY AND WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NE FL. 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS
INDICATE LOW WILL TRACK NE...ALONG WARM FRONT...ACROSS N FL AND SE
GA BY LATER TONIGHT. SHORT WAVE...WHICH IS PRODUCING AN MCS OVER
THE AREA...WILL ALSO BE MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG JET DYNAMICS
AND CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH STORMS WEAKENING SOMEWHAT
AFTER THAT DUE TO SOME STABILIZATION. HIGH 0-3 KM HELICITIES ALSO
SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOES. OTHER MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. HEAVIEST RAINS (2 TO 3 INCHES) TONIGHT WILL BE FROM JUST
WEST OF JAX TO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION AND INTO SE GA. AREA IS
UNDER FLOOD WATCH AND PROJECTED RAINFALL MAY REQUIRE AREAL FLOOD
WARNINGS OVER NITE.

&&

.AVIATION...WITH WARM FRONT DRAPED OVER THE AREA AND AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT...EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS/VSBY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MCS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WILL PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS AT THE JAX...CRG...
VQQ...AND SSI TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z AND WILL AMEND.

&&

.MARINE...FOR THE INITIAL PHASE OF THE FORECAST...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE INITIALIZATION SHOWING GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT. MODELS HOWEVER...DIVERGE QUICKLY
AND SEVERELY WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH THE
GFS SHOWING A MUCH STRONGER LOW DEVELOPMENT AND CONSEQUENTLY RAMPS
WINDS UP MUCH MORE RAPIDLY THAN NAM12. LOW CERTAINLY LOOKS WEAKER AT
THIS POINT THAN GFS PROJECTION AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER IN
LEANING TOWARD THE NAM12 IN MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS
YIELDS GENERALLY SCEC CONDITIONS FOR THE OFFSHORE PORTION AND ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TO HOLD OFF ON SCA FOR TONIGHT AND WED. MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT EARLY FRIDAY IN STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR FRI TIME PERIOD
WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  60  71  58  70 /  80  80  60  90
SSI  64  70  62  70 /  90  90  80  80
JAX  65  74  62  75 /  80  80  70  70
SGJ  66  76  64  77 /  80  70  50  70
GNV  65  76  62  79 /  80  80  50  70
OCF  66  80  63  81 /  70  60  40  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-
     CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-NASSAU-SUWANNEE-
     UNION.

GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-
     BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.

&&

PP/SEC/JD/PK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
545 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2009

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-011000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
545 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2009

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 99 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND MOST OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH THURSDAY...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE
AREA...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE SEVERE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND EXTREME
NORTHEAST FLORIDA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY BEGINNING
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE AREA AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH THE
REGION. HEAVIEST RAINS MAY FOCUS NEAR AREAS WHICH RECEIVED HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THE PAST WEEKEND...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN
POSSIBLE TONIGHT. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
WEST OF WAYCROSS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

...FLOOD WARNING FOR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AT BAXLEY...

RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF WAYCROSS...MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES TO AREA RIVERS
THIS WEEK. THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AT BAXLEY IS ALREADY FORECAST TO RISE
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FOR UPDATED STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL
WARNINGS.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE REGION.
HEAVIEST RAINS MAY FOCUS NEAR AREAS WHICH RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL
DURING THE PAST WEEKEND...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN
POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT...A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO ACTIVATE IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
AREA AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO
SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED OR IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED.

JCH/SEC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
423 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2009

FLZ040-312100-
MARION-
423 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2009

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EXTREME EASTERN
MARION COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 500 PM
EDT...

AT 423 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JUNIPER
SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL
AFFECT AREAS AROUND JUNIPER SPRINGS THROUGH 500 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO
ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2908 8180 2926 8177 2925 8164 2910 8163
      2905 8163
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 277DEG 16KT 2916 8168

CARROLL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
526 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2009

GAZ132-149-312230-
ATKINSON-COFFEE-
526 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2009

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWESTERN
ATKINSON AND SOUTHERN COFFEE COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND FUNNEL
CLOUDS VALID UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

AT 526 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 10 MILES WEST OF WILLACOOCHEE...OR 8
MILES NORTH OF NASHVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND WILLACOOCHEE AND DOUGLAS
THROUGH 630 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED WEAK ROTATION
WITHIN THIS STORM. TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE
WARNING.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

LAT...LON 3160 8279 3140 8268 3127 8304 3130 8306
      3133 8307 3136 8311 3140 8315 3144 8315
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 242DEG 32KT 3131 8321

DEESE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
631 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2009

GAZ132-134-149>151-312315-
ATKINSON-BACON-COFFEE-PIERCE-WARE-
631 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2009

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN
ATKINSON...NORTHWESTERN WARE...WESTERN PIERCE...SOUTHEASTERN COFFEE
AND SOUTHERN BACON COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID
UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

AT 631 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 6 MILES WEST OF BICKLEY...OR 10 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF DOUGLAS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS AROUND NICHOLLS...BICKLEY...ALMA...
NEW LACY...DIXIE UNION AND DEENWOOD THROUGH 715 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO
ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3159 8231 3124 8235 3135 8282 3153 8280
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 276DEG 16KT 3143 8270

CAMP

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
923 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0919 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 NW LIVE OAK          30.40N 83.10W
03/31/2009                   SUWANNEE           FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT FROM A TRAINED SPOTTER IN SUWANEE RIVER STATE PARK
            2 TREES SNAPPED OFF AT ABOUT 35-40 FOOT ELEVATION.
            NUMEROUS SIGNS AND DEBRIS IN THE ROAD. MAIN GATE TO PARK
            DAMAGED AND BLOWN DOWN.

&&

PKEEGAN