Red Flag Warning 39, NWS Jacksonville, FL

000 
WWUS82 KJAX 262243
RFWJAX

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
643 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2009

FLZ037-038-040-262345-
/O.EXP.KJAX.FW.W.0039.000000T0000Z-090326T2300Z/
PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
643 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE LONGER OBSERVED SO THE RED FLAG WARNING
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
410 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2009

.SHORT TERM (THU-SAT)...RIDGE ALOFT JUST EAST OF THE AREA STARTS
TO SHIFT SE AS A SHORT WAVE OVER LOWER MISS VALLEY MOVES EAST
INTO GA THIS EVE. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TRACKS NE TOWARDS MID ATLANTIC
BY LATE TODAY WHICH PUSHES FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO SE GA BEFORE
STALLING OUT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IN COMBO WITH SHORT WAVE
ENERGY RIDING ALONG IT WILL LEAD TO LIKELY POPS BY LATE TODAY
FROM NEAR I-10 NORTH INTO SE GA. APPROACH OF LOW LEVEL JET AND
A WARM UP (WHICH WILL HELP PROMOTE MIXING) WARRANTS A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR SE. HAVE GONE WITH
MAINLY SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED STORMS. INSTABILITY MARGINAL BUT
WITH A 30 TO 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET IN THE AREA AND AFTERNOON
HEATING...MAY GET SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY GOING ESP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
STORMS...BUT A COUPLE COULD BE STRONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS. WILL
CONTINUE WITH POPS TONIGHT...HIGHEST IN SE GA...AS STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY COMBINES WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH. MAY SEE A FEW
ELEVATED STORMS TONIGHT ESP NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE GONE WITH
QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1 INCH TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES AND
LESS AMOUNTS FURTHER S AND E.

POPS DECREASE S-N FRI MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NWD AS A
WARM FRONT WITH WAA RISING AFTN TEMPS INLAND INTO THE 80S WITH A SEA
BREEZE MERGER POSSIBLE SPARKING SOME LATE AFTN SHRA INLAND. ANOTHER
LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FRI. HAVE A SHARP N-S POP DISTRIBUTION
FROM 50% NORTH TO 20% FAR SOUTH.

ON SAT A PHASED STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. LATEST MODEL
RUNS SLOW DOWN TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM EVEN MORE. THE 00Z GFS MOVES
THE PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE ACROSS NE FL AT AROUND 06Z WHICH IS IN
FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z ECMWF. THE DGEX IS AROUND 6
HOURS SLOWER. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE 00Z GFS WITH THIS PACKAGE AND
MOVE THE PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE THROUGH INLAND SE GA AND SUWANNEE
VALLEY DURING SAT EVE AND REST OF NE FL/EXTREME SE GA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE STORMS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...FRONT AND PRECIP ARE EXPECTED RAPIDLY CLEAR
THE AREA SUNDAY WITH BREEZY FLOW OVER THE AREA. NOT A SIGNIFICANT
COOL DOWN EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE FROPA WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GULF COAST
THROUGH TUE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
THE NEXT SHOT OF ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO BE LATE TUE/WED AS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE 00Z RUNS OF GFS AND DGEX SHOW LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AND WILL KEEP PREVIOUS LOW POPS IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH TODAY WITH MAIN ISSUE SLY WINDS AT
10-15G25KT. LLWS INDICATED IN VWP (35 KT AT 1200-1500 FT) AND RUC
GUIDANCE AS WELL AS NAM. THIS SHOULD DECREASE AS WINDS INCREASE THIS
MORNING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND FOR NOW HAVE MAINLY VCSH FOR THIS EVENING EXCEPT PROB
GROUP FOR KSSI AFTER 02Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE CERTAINLY RAMPED UP FROM THIS TIME LAST NIGHT
WITH 41012 SHOWING SLY WINDS AT 21G27KT AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH SCA CONTINUING FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SCEC WILL BE CONTINUED NEARSHORE FOR TODAY.
LATEST WAVEWATCH IS ON TRACK WITH OBSERVATIONS AND LITTLE WAS
CHANGED. WINDS CONTINUE GUSTY ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND AN OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUST POSSIBLE GIVEN LLVL
JET OF 35-45 KT.

&

.FIRE WX...A DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOWERING
HUMIDITIES RESULTING IN A RISK OF FOREST FIRES GIVEN DRY FUELS. EVEN
WITH GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING NOT A WIDESPREAD RED FLAG WARNING
AREA ANTICIPATED DUE TO GENERAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS FROM YESTERDAY
AND THUS HAVE FOR NOW ONLY INCLUDED MARION...PUTNAM AND FLAGLER COUNTIES
WHERE GENERALLY DRIEST OF LOW LEVEL AIR EXISTS. 1 OR 2 MORE COUNTIES
POSSIBLE BUT WERE EVEN MORE MARGINAL SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLAY
AND ST JOHNS COUNTIES. HIGHER MOISTURE ON FRI WILL PRECLUDE
WATCHES/WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  58  74  60 /  60  70  60  40
SSI  72  61  72  62 /  40  60  40  30
JAX  79  60  80  63 /  30  50  30  20
SGJ  78  62  77  64 /  20  40  20  20
GNV  81  59  83  59 /  20  40  20  20
OCF  82  59  84  61 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-NASSAU-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR FLAGLER-MARION-PUTNAM.

GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-
     COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-
     INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

PP/ARS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
224 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2009

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-261000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-CAMDEN
(COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-
ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-
JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-ST
JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
224 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2009

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES...

DUE TO CONTINUED LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELLS...THE RIP CURRENT RISK
WILL BE MODERATE AT THE BEACHES. REFER TO THE SURF ZONE FORECAST
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR WINDS
SUSTAINED NEAR 20 MPH AT TIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SOUTH AND STALL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THURSDAY. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY NIGHT
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRECEDING A STRONG FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE
AREA. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG AND PRODUCE STRONG WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

PP/ABE