Red Flag Warning 11, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
200 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009

.SHORT TERM...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AND WILL BRING US ONE LAST BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR
BEFORE LIFTING ON OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. AN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH INTO THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT SHARPENING THE TROUGH AND
LEADING TO DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE CAROLINAS
ALONG THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO THE CAROLINA
COAST AND RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEAST WELL
OFFSHORE. THE FETCH BETWEEN THE LOW AND A HIGH BACK OVER TEXAS
WILL BRING A NORTHERLY FLOW RIGHT DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THIS IS THE WIND DIRECTION WE LOOK FOR FOR STRONG COLD AIR
OUTBREAKS OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA AND IT LOOKS
LIKE THAT IS JUST WHAT WILL HAPPEN. CURRENTLY GFS MOS GUIDANCE IS
GOING FOR THE LOWER 20S FOR TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT
TEND TO THINK THE MODEL IS BRINGING THE COLD AIR IN A BIT TOO
RAPIDLY. EXPERIENCE HAS PROVEN THAT THE FIRST NIGHT OF A COLD AIR
OUTBREAK IS USUALLY NOT THE COLDEST SO WILL GO WITH THE ETA/NAM12
GUIDANCE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE HIGH WILL BE POSITIONED RIGHT OVER
THE NORTH FLORIDA PENINSULA AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING THINK THIS WILL BE THE NIGHT WHEN THE BOTTOM
DROPS OUT OF THE THE THERMOMETER (IN SOUTHERN TERMS ANYWAY) AND WE
SEE LOW TEMPS FLIRTING WITH THE 20 DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...
AFTER THURSDAY THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT AND WE WILL SEE
A MODERATING TREND WITH HIGH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE CLIMO BY THE
WEEKEND. BEYOND THAT WITH A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE 7-10
DAY EXTENDED OUTLOOK IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF SEASONABLE TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS...JUST HAVE TO GET THROUGH THIS LAST ARCTIC
BLAST FOR THE REWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND VCSH. CLOUD DECKS AT THIS POINT REMAIN VERY MUCH VFR
BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON CLOUD DECKS LOWERING THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL...EXPECT VALUES TO
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 4K FT FROM ROUGHLY 03Z TO 09Z. WINDS WILL BE THE
BIGGER STORY STARTING TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON
WITH NORTHWEST GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS LIKELY AFT 16Z TUE.

&&

.MARINE...FIRST PHASE OF THE WIND INCREASE IS IN PROGRESS AT THE
OFFSHORE BUOYS WITH SCEC CONDITIONS NOW PRESENT IN THE NEARSHORE
ZONES AS WELL. WILL BUMP UP SHORT TERM WINDS OUT TO 12 HOURS IN
THE GRID SET TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...THE BIG QUESTION IS
HOW WRAPPED UP CAROLINA LOW GETS AND THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THAT
LOW. GFS IS MUCH STRONGER AT THIS POINT WITH OVER 30 KNOTS
SUSTAINED...ALTHOUGH THAT IS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME...WITH NAM12
COMING IN AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. AT THIS POINT...FAVOR THE NAM12
SLIGHTLY BUT STILL FEEL THERE WILL BE WIND GUSTS TO GALES TO
CONTEND WITH FOR A 6 TO 8 PERIOD TONIGHT AND INTO TUE MORNING.
AFTER COORDINATION...WILL GO WITH A GALE WARNING FOR THE OFFSHORE
PORTION BEGINNING TONIGHT AT 02Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG VERIFYING NICELY IN THE WARNING AREA OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FLORIDA CWA. WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN PROGGED WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT TIMES OVER THE
COASTAL SITES. WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH
TONIGHT...ANOTHER SHOT OF DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
COMBINED WITH THE WINDS WILL RESULT IN RED FLAGS FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA FOR TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS A CERTAINTY
FOR THE FLORIDA PORTION FOR WED AND THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  34  44  24  51 /  10  10   0   0
SSI  36  48  26  46 /  20  10   0   0
JAX  39  51  24  51 /  20  10  10   0
SGJ  40  50  28  48 /  20  10  10   0
GNV  43  49  24  51 /  10  10  10   0
OCF  41  50  26  52 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR FLAGLER-ST JOHNS.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-DUVAL-
     FLAGLER-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ALACHUA-
     BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-
     HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM TO 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR APPLING-
     ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF
     DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

     HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-
     COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-
     INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
     20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

SANDRIK/DEESE/KEEGAN

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