Tornado Warning 69, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WWUS54 KJAN 030150
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
850 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2009

MSC007-019-030159-
/O.CAN.KJAN.TO.W.0069.000000T0000Z-090503T0200Z/
CHOCTAW MS-ATTALA MS-
850 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2009

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL ATTALA AND SOUTHWESTERN
CHOCTAW COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT SUNDAY 
MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. A TORNADO 
WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT SUNDAY MORNING FOR 
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3304 8881 3310 8920 3320 8920 3324 8882
      3323 8881
TIME...MOT...LOC 0149Z 265DEG 24KT 3313 8916

$$

MSC159-030200-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0069.000000T0000Z-090503T0200Z/
WINSTON MS-
850 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN
WINSTON COUNTY...

AT 849 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUE TO 
TRACK A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO AND HAIL 
TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF 
LOUISVILLE MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  LOUISVILLE AND MILLCREEK BY 900 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT A TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. YOU
SHOULD ACTIVATE YOUR TORNADO ACTION PLAN AND TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTION
NOW.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT SUNDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300
AM CDT SUNDAY MORNING FOR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

&&

LAT...LON 3304 8881 3310 8920 3320 8920 3324 8882
      3323 8881
TIME...MOT...LOC 0149Z 265DEG 24KT 3313 8916

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
449 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY REMAINS BEST TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST WHERE LI VALUES WERE AROUND -10 AND DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE
LOWER 70S. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
PARISHES...BUT STRUGGLE TO DO MUCH. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...BUT STILL HAVE THE DRY POCKET JUST OFF THE SURFACE. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE STEEP...SO SUSPECT THERE COULD BE SOME GOOD
HAIL PRODUCERS TO THE WEST IF THEY EVER GET GOING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
AROUND GWO SHOW ABOUT 2300J/KG OF CAPE WITH THE OTHER STABILITY
INDICES APPROACHING OR SUGGESTING SEVERE STORMS. PW VALUES WERE ALSO
ESTIMATED AROUND 2 INCHES. WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 CAN NOT DISPUTE
THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODEL SOUNDING AT
GLH DOES NOT LOOK NEARLY AS GOOD...BUT THERE WAS STILL SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A LOW LEVEL DRY POCKET. A FEW
STORMS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR WERE PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND
PULSED UP ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WAS NOT AS GREAT WEST OF INTERSTATE 55...BUT CAPE VALUES
ON THE SOUNDINGS WERE AROUND 4500J/KG. ROTATING STORMS TO THE NORTH
WERE PRODUCING HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE...SO THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR
SEVERE STORMS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THINKING THE LOSS OFF HEATING WILL DIMINISH THE RISK...BUT
THE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TONIGHT.

GUIDANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WERE CATEGORICAL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. CONSIDERED BACKING OFF ON THE RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT WITH SUMMER
LIKE CONDITIONS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD EASILY DEVELOP...SO
CHANCE POPS WERE GOOD. THE MODELS KEEP THE RAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WAS SUPPOSED TO
DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THE ARKLATEX TONIGHT AND SHIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA. MSAS SHOWS SEVERAL LOWS TO THE WEST...WITH A 1012 LOW OVER
THE ARKLATEX AND ANOTHER ONE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. STILL LOOKING FOR
THE FIRST DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE TO BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE DELTA IN EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHIFTING EAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDED SEVERE/HEAVY
RAIN WORDING TO THE NORTH AND WESTERN GROUPS THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD SHEAR AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. THE
BEST LAPSE RATES WERE TO THE SOUTH...AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED
STORMS AHEAD OF EVERYTHING SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. THE GFS
SHOWS INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...AS THE
SYSTEM EXITS THE CWA. THE HWO MENTIONS SEVERE THROUGH THE EVENT...SO
WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE ZONES BEYOND SUNDAY AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SEEM TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT...LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S.

DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT. THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE NOT RECEIVED MUCH RAIN THE PAST
FEW WEEKS...SO THEY SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAKE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN.
STORMS DEVELOPING AT THIS POINT WERE MOVING FAST OR SHORT LIVED...SO
WILL RE-EXAMINE THE IDEA LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
TO THE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHER HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CONTAIN
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOTS OF TURBULENCE. ALL SITES ARE REPORTING
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 3KFT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SOUTH THIS EVENING WHILE MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER STORM CLUSTER
IS EXPECTED TO THREATEN NE LA...SE AR AND NCNTRL MS LATER THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO THE AREA.
FARTHER SOUTH...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 06Z.  ON
SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL THREATEN ALL SITES
FROM AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       68  81  62  74 /  44  76  74  29
MERIDIAN      65  83  64  76 /  43  59  71  50
VICKSBURG     68  80  62  76 /  46  78  71  17
HATTIESBURG   67  86  67  78 /  15  40  57  53
NATCHEZ       69  81  65  76 /  25  75  71  27
GREENVILLE    67  75  57  72 /  80  90  54  13
GREENWOOD     67  77  58  72 /  78  88  65  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

7/22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
305 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2009

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-MSZ018-019-025>042-032015-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
305 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING FOR THE AREA GENERALLY NORTH OF A RAYVILLE LOUISIANA TO
YAZOO CITY TO DE KALB MISSISSIPPI LINE. THE DELTA REGION WILL HAVE
THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE RISK WILL
SHIFT EAST DURING THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL ALSO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS TO BRING 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN MINOR TO MODERATE PONDING OF WATER ISSUES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LAZ015-016-023-025-MSZ043>058-032015-
RICHLAND-MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-TENSAS-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-
KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-
COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-
305 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING ALONG THE INTERSTATE TWENTY CORRIDOR.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MIDDAY
SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THESE AREAS AS A STRONG
DISTURBANCE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN RISK
WILL BE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...BUT TORNADOES WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE. LOCATIONS IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WILL LIKELY HAVE
THE MAIN RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY DELAYED UNTIL AT LEAST LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAYBE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

LAZ024-026-MSZ059>066-072>074-032015-
CATAHOULA-CONCORDIA-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
305 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT SUNDAY

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MIDDAY SUNDAY
AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS LOCATIONS IN EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA
AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI SOUTH GENERALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THE MAIN RISK WILL BE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL...BUT TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI WILL LIKELY HAVE THE MAIN RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER DELAYED
UNTIL AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

22

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
620 PM CDT SAT MAY 02 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BELZONI                 33.18N 90.49W
05/02/2009                   HUMPHREYS          MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES AND LIMBS DOWN IN THE BELZONI AREA. ONE
            TREE DOWN ON A HOUSE.

&&

GERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
644 PM CDT SAT MAY 02 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     HAIL             BLACK HAWK              33.33N 90.01W
05/02/2009  E2.00 INCH       CARROLL            MS   PUBLIC

            HAIL LARGER THAN GOLF BALLS REPORTED IN THE BLACK HAWK
            COMMUNITY.

&&

WESTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
725 PM CDT SAT MAY 02 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     HAIL             1 N LEXINGTON           33.13N 90.05W
05/02/2009  E0.88 INCH       HOLMES             MS   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL REPORTED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
            LEXINGTON.

&&

WESTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
729 PM CDT SAT MAY 02 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     HAIL             POSSUMNECK              33.14N 89.74W
05/02/2009  E0.88 INCH       ATTALA             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN POSSUMNECK.

0725 PM     TSTM WND GST     POSSUMNECK              33.14N 89.74W
05/02/2009  M60.00 MPH       ATTALA             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER MEASURED 60 MPH WIND IN POSSUMNECK.

&&

WESTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
736 PM CDT SAT MAY 02 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0722 PM     HAIL             2 SW SILVER CITY        33.08N 90.52W
05/02/2009  E1.00 INCH       HUMPHREYS          MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SILVER
            CITY.

&&

WESTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
802 PM CDT SAT MAY 02 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0758 PM     HAIL             ACKERMAN                33.31N 89.17W
05/02/2009  E1.00 INCH       CHOCTAW            MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN ACKERMAN.

&&

WESTER