Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WWUS54 KJAN 272303
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
603 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

LAC025-272313-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-090327T2330Z/
CATAHOULA LA-
603 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN CATAHOULA PARISH IS
CANCELLED...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3150 9185 3148 9181 3151 9178 3161 9182
      3165 9177 3162 9174 3164 9170 3173 9169
      3175 9139 3163 9144 3165 9151 3160 9150
      3159 9145 3153 9151 3148 9151 3145 9172
      3148 9180 3147 9181 3144 9178 3143 9185
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 257DEG 26KT 3160 9160

$$

LAC029-272330-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-090327T2330Z/
CONCORDIA LA-
603 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN CONCORDIA PARISH...

AT 603 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND 
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR 
FERRIDAY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RIDGECREST AND FERRIDAY BY 610 PM CDT...
  7 MILES SOUTH OF CLAYTON BY 615 PM CDT...
  SPOKANE BY 620 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS OF 60 MPH CAN BRING DOWN TREES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN INJURY
AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. ROOFS OF MOBILE HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS COULD BE
DAMAGED...AND MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO WELL BUILT HOMES AND STRUCTURES
COULD OCCUR.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

&&

LAT...LON 3150 9185 3148 9181 3151 9178 3161 9182
      3165 9177 3162 9174 3164 9170 3173 9169
      3175 9139 3163 9144 3165 9151 3160 9150
      3159 9145 3153 9151 3148 9151 3145 9172
      3148 9180 3147 9181 3144 9178 3143 9185
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 257DEG 26KT 3160 9160

$$

GARRETT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
317 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK AND FLOODING POTENTIAL EXPECTED TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM...ACTIVE NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS
REGION TONIGHT.  CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STALLED BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.  THE SURFACE LOW
WHICH WILL BE MOVING TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS REGION LATER THIS EVENING
IS POSITIONED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST TX...WITH STORMS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER EAST TX THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE STRONG UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO
THE TX PANHANDLE.

AS THE UPPER LOW TRAVERSES TOWARD THE REGION THE SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO NORTHEAST TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS REGION...REACHING THE
ARKLATEX BY THIS EVENING AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING A BROKEN LINE OF INTENSE
STORMS THROUGH THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY FOR ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER. THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR
INDIVIDUAL CELLS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE AHEAD OF THE LINE WHICH WILL
BRING AN ENHANCED TORNADO RISK FOR THE REGIONS. CURRENT THINKING FOR
TIMING WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER IS THAT THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWFA
WILL SEE THEIR MAIN RISK BETWEEN 5 PM AND MIDNIGHT...THE CENTRAL
THIRD BETWEEN 7 PM AND 3 AM...AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWFA
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 7 AM.  EXPECT ALL SEVERE WEATHER TO BE OUT OF
THE CWFA SOON AFTER DAYBREAK.

CURRENTLY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MOST OF THE ARKLAMISS
UNDER A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS
ASSESSMENT AS SEVERAL PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE. THERE IS GOING TO
BE PLENTY OF SHEAR TO WORK WITH.  THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AS WELL WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 2K J/KG.  MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 7 C/KM.  AND THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S AND
PWATS AROUND OR ABOVE 1.7 INCHES.  SO EVERYTHING SHOULD BE IN PLACE
TO SEE AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION
INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TORNADOES.

IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER THE REGION WILL HAVE A FLOODING
POTENTIAL. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS MUCH OF THE ARKLAMISS REGION
HAS RECEIVED A FEW INCHES OF RAIN.  WITH ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED AS THESE STORMS MOVE THROUGH...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING.  THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE
FOR LOW LYING AREAS AND LOCATIONS NEAR RIVER BASINS WHICH ARE
ALREADY EITHER IN OR APPROACHING FLOOD.  SO AS A RESULT A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

ON SATURDAY THE SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND...WHICH SHOULD MOVE OUT
BY MIDDAY. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MAY BE SQUEEZED OUT OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWFA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE ONCE
THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

ONE THING TO NOTE FOR SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS.  WINDS AT LEAST
OVER THE DELTA REGION WILL BE RATHER GUSTY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF
15-20KTS AND HIGHER GUSTS. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY NEED A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY.  HOWEVER WITH SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING
CONCERNS TONIGHT EXPECTED...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING THE
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW.  BUT THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL NEED TO BE
KEPT IN MIND FOR SATURDAY BEHIND THIS STRONG FRONT.

FOR TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED RATHER CLOSE TO GUI FOR THE SHORT
TERM. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED LOWS IN THE FAR EAST BY A COUPLE
DEGREES FOR TONIGHT WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND WEATHER AROUND THROUGH
THE NIGHT EXPECTED.  HAVE REMAINED WITH GUI IN THE WEST WHERE COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE FRONT. /14/

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRY
WEATHER(PWATS LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH) AT THE START OF THE WEEK WILL
FEATURE A WEAK PACIFIC SURFACE HIGH(1018MB) CENTER OVER NRN FL
MOVING E. A CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE MS
VALLEY BY MONDAY EVENING AND PROVIDE THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR
TRANSIENT SHRA/TSRA IN OUR CWFA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS PWATS
PUSH BACK TO NEAR 1.4 INCHES. K INDEXES REACH 30-35 WITH NEAR ZERO
SHOWALTERS IN 25KTS OF 850MB THETA E AIR NEAR 322K. BY LATER ON
TUESDAY...WE EXPECT A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE SITUATED OVER
THE COASTAL REGION WITH MID LEVEL DRYING TO THE N KEEPING POPS DOWN
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEN A MORE POTENT STORM SYSTEM
DIGS BACK DOWN THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE ARKLATEX ON THURSDAY
BRINGING US ANOTHER CHANCE OF STRONGER CONVECTION IN A BAND OF
1.5+INCH PWATS. WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING ANY STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA
IN THE HWOJAN FOR NEXT THURSDAY UNTIL BETTER CONFIDENCE BETWEEN
ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.

HAVE LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY FROM MEX MOS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK BETWEEN MAIN SHORTWAVE IMPULSES. AFTER A CHILLY START TO MONDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 40S...TEMPERATURE REGIME LOOKS PRETTY
CLOSE TO NORMS AND RATHER REASONABLE WITH MOST HIGHS 70-75F AND LOWS
IN THE 50S./40/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES EXIST OVER THE ARKLAMISS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE PERIODIC BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 2-3K FEET
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOK FOR LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME
SELY ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND BE INCREASING TO ROUGHLY
15-20KTS THIS FOR THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH AN
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR EARLY AFTERNOON.
ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
INCREASING PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS BY 06Z THROUGH 14Z SATURDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AT
TIMES. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY
MORNING AND QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  THIS
WILL ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR THE DELTA REGION INCLUDING GLH AND GWO. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       52  63  39  63 / 100  37  10   1
MERIDIAN      58  66  37  63 /  92  59  14   2
VICKSBURG     50  61  40  64 / 100  26   8   2
HATTIESBURG   59  66  40  65 /  91  41  10   1
NATCHEZ       48  60  37  64 / 100  20   8   2
GREENVILLE    48  57  39  61 / 100  26   9   1
GREENWOOD     51  60  39  61 / 100  34  12   1

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
239 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
281945-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
239 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ARKLAMISS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STRONG LONG TRACK TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS
OF 80 MILES AN HOUR OR HIGHER AND LARGE GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS THAT WILL BE PRODUCED BY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE TWO MAIN INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INTENSE WIND
SHEAR AND DEEP MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ARKLAMISS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND EAST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA BEFORE SUNSET...WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES FROM TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA.
SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG LONG LIVED TORNADOES AS WELL AS DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO FORM INTO A
LINE OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS
EAST MISSISSIPPI AFTER MIDNIGHT. TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

IN ADDITION...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED
RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
SATURDAY. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AREA WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS FROM 30 TO 40
MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER OTHER
AREAS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS WILL BE NECESSARY TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

03

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
344 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0317 AM     TSTM WND DMG     6 ESE LAUREL            31.66N 89.05W
03/26/2009                   JONES              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CHICKEN HOUSE HAD MINIMAL DAMAGE. A MOBILE HOME WAS MOVED
            AND GARAGE DOOR WAS BOWED OUT AT A RESIDENCE.

&&

JCULIN