Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
908 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

.DISCUSSION...HAVE MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS
AND TO ISSUE THE NEW TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 66 FOR SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWS AN INTENSE
LINE OF STORMS FROM AROUND CROSSETT ARKANSAS STRETCHING TO SOUTHEAST
TX. THIS LINE IS APPROACHING THE CWFA MORE QUICKLY THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED. AS A RESULT HAVE UPDATED THE WX GRIDS TO GIVE A QUICKLY
PROGRESSION OF THE SQUALL LINE. IN ADDITION...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE LINE OF STORMS IS NOT AS INTENSE AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION. AS A
RESULT HAVE REMOVED SEVERE WEATHER WORDING FROM THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA...OR BASICALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DOES NOT NEED MANY
CHANGES.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE A NEW TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THIS WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 3 AM. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE
ARKLAMISS REGION THIS EVENING.  A WARM FRONT IS MOVING NORTH THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION THIS
EVENING.  IN ADDITION...A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
LOUISIANA IS RAPIDLY MOVING EAST TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS REGION.  THIS
LINE OF STORMS SHOULD REACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY ROUGHLY AROUND
MIDNIGHT.  THIS LINE SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BY AROUND 5
OR 6 AM.  THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF IFR TO POSSIBLY
LIFR CONDITIONS AS IT PASSES THROUGH MOST SITES.  THIS WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO SITES AS IT PASSES THROUGH.  CEILINGS
WILL BE LOWERING AS THIS LINE APPROACHES. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ON
THURSDAY THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER.  THIS SHOULD BE DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY BEFORE MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       57  76  58  79 / 100  22  81  50
MERIDIAN      57  74  57  79 / 100  48  79  52
VICKSBURG     57  76  60  80 / 100  25  78  48
HATTIESBURG   61  75  60  78 / 100  72 100  57
NATCHEZ       60  76  60  80 / 100  44  83  50
GREENVILLE    52  74  58  78 / 100  20  75  43
GREENWOOD     53  76  57  78 / 100  18  73  37

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
815 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
261945-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
815 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT BETWEEN 930 PM AND 4 AM. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GREATER
THAN 70 MPH AND TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG...WILL BE
LIKELY WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS OVERNIGHT. THE GREATEST RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 82...AND THE GREATEST TORNADO
RISK WILL BE FROM INTERSTATE 20 SOUTH. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT.

THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD REACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BETWEEN 11 PM
AND MIDNIGHT...THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR...BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2
AM...AND THE HIGHWAY 45 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 3 AND 5 AM. A FEW INTENSE
STORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE AS WELL.

HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE TO LOCALLY THREE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THIS RAISES CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IS LIKELY FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION.
ONCE AGAIN...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THEN...A MORE
POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL BE GATHERING OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION ON
FRIDAY AND PUSHING NORTHEAST WITH IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE...INSTABILITY
AND WIND SHEAR COMBINING ACROSS OUR REGION FOR AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE
STORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE TWENTY..HOWEVER A SQUALL LINE SHOULD
SWEEP EAST ACROSS MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY WEATHER ALERT FOR UPDATES ON THIS DANGEROUS
STORM SYSTEM.

OTHERWISE...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL BE
LOW FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT...MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

08

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1008 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

LAZ009-016-MSZ040>042-047-260345-
EAST CARROLL LA-WARREN MS-SHARKEY MS-ISSAQUENA MS-YAZOO MS-MADISON LA-
1008 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MISSISSIPPI RIVER OVER WARREN AND
ISSAQUENA COUNTIES...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH
WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ONWARD TO 9 MILES SOUTH
OF TALLULAH AT 1006 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN EXTREME WEST CENTRAL YAZOO...SOUTHERN ISSAQUENA...SOUTHERN
SHARKEY AND NORTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTIES...AND EASTERN MADISON AND
SOUTHEASTERN EAST CARROLL PARISHES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS
CLOSELY.

MME