Severe Thunderstorm Warning 548, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WWUS54 KJAN 092049
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
349 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009

MSC129-092057-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0548.000000T0000Z-091009T2100Z/
SMITH MS-
349 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN SMITH COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3199 8918 3199 8930 3222 8930 3223 8927
      3223 8924 3223 8902 3205 8895
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 252DEG 25KT 3214 8914

$$

MSC061-092100-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0548.000000T0000Z-091009T2100Z/
JASPER MS-
349 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN JASPER COUNTY...

AT 347 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 60 MPH 
WIND GUSTS WAS INDICATED NEAR MONTROSE MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. 

THE STORM WILL IMPACT THE ROSE HILL AREA BY 355 PM

WINDS OF 60 MPH CAN BRING DOWN TREES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN INJURY 
AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. ROOFS OF MOBILE HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS COULD BE 
DAMAGED...AND MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO WELL BUILT HOMES AND STRUCTURES 
COULD OCCUR.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3199 8918 3199 8930 3222 8930 3223 8927
      3223 8924 3223 8902 3205 8895
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 252DEG 25KT 3214 8914

$$

40

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1000 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009

.UPDATE...LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. SPC HAS ALREADY
ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IT
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE MAIN RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BUT WITH THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SMALL
WINDOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WERE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHEAR
MAINLY OVER THE DELTA AREAS FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO OUR WEST AND EL DORADO
AR REPORTED A GUSTS TO 53 MPH WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS. AS THE LINE
MAKES ITS WAY FURTHER EAST EXPECT THE SEVERE RISK TO BE DIMINISHED
AS THE THERE WILL BE MUCH LESS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY EAST OF
I-55...BUT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THOSE
AREAS WILL HEAT UP INTO THE UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE UPDATED FORECAST IS ALREADY OUT
AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME./15/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ORIENTED COLD FRONT IS SAGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ARKLATEX THIS
MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE BOUNDARY AND A WIDE
BAND OF RAIN AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FRONTS WAKE. THIS
FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL CREEP SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
ARKLAMISS TODAY...PROBABLY MAKING IT INTO BOLIVAR COUNTRY (IN THE
NW) FROM 9 TO 10 AM...BUT THEN MAYBE TAKING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON TO
APPROACH THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR. BUT TIMING OF PRECIP IS TRICKY
BECAUSE ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING TO MID
AFTERNOON TO ALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDS TO START DEVELOPING A LITTLE OUT
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALL OF OUR
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT AS
PLENTY OF SHEAR WILL BE IN PLAY IN CONCERT WITH 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE. CAPPING ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND LACK OF FORCING SHOULD
KEEP THE RISK FOR POTENT STORMS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE
TRACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS RISK WILL SHIFT ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE TRACE EARLY THIS EVENING. LOOKS LIKE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WORRY...BUT LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
PRESENT A NON-ZERO TORNADO RISK (AND THIS RISK HAS A RELATIVE
MAXIMUM NORTH OF INTERSTATE TWENTY).

WILL ALSO BE WATCHING FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING SOUPY AIRMASS AND SATURATED GROUND. PROBABILITIES OF
FLOODING TODAY SEEM HIGHEST NORTHWEST OF NATCHEZ TRACE...BUT THERE
ARE STILL TOO MANY QUESTION MARKS WITH REGARD TO PREFRONTAL
CONVECTION TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. IF THERE ARE
NO PREFRONTAL STORMS THEN THE HEAVIEST FRONTAL ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO KEEP TOTALS THROUGH TONIGHT PEAKING AT
NO MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO.

EXPECT A VERY WARM START TODAY TO ALLOW FOR HIGHS EASILY WELL UP
INTO THE 80S IN MANY SPOTS BY MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW AREAS
MAY EVEN HIT 90...AND THIS NOTION PUTS RECORDS AT GWO AND TVR IN
SOME JEOPARDY.

THE FRONT SHOULD GET THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TONIGHT...BUT
IT PROBABLY WONT GET MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THAT BEFORE STALLING.
DESPITE THE FRONT GETTING THROUGH THE AREA...FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WARM/MOIST AIR OVER COOLER
SURFACE AIR ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A STRONG HIGH LEVEL JET STREAK TO OUR NORTH TO ENHANCE
LIFT. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS ARE RECIPES FOR RAIN AND MAYBE EVEN A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE RAIN TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW EVENING
MIGHT END UP BEING SOMEWHAT HEAVY AND BRINGING AT LEAST AN
ADDITIONAL INCH TO A SW TO NE ORIENTED ZONE SOMEWHERE ALONG AND JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 60S IN MOST AREAS. /BB/

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...THE ECMWF/GFS/GEFS ARE
ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON RETROGRADING THE INTENSE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
CENTER FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WWD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
PERIOD. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL RETREAT NWD AND
MOISTURE/LIFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE ARKLAMISS. WAS INITIALLY
RELUCTANT TO ACCEPT THE HIGH GFS MOS POPS FOR MON-TUES AS THE GEFS
SHOWS A GOOD DEAL OF MEMBER SPREAD IN QPF DETAILS...BUT THE ECMWF
FULLY SUPPORTS IT AND REALLY HAVE NO COMPELLING REASON TO NOT EXCEPT
GFS MOS. WOULD IMAGINE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
GIVEN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST TO BE > TWO INCHES. THE
FORECASTED SHEAR/INSTABILITY LOOKS INSUFFICIENT FOR MUCH IN THE WAY
OF SEVERE WEATHER RISK.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...IT IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY THAT
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE A SURGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE DOMINANCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND
UNUSUALLY HIGH HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA...EVEN THOUGH THE 00Z GFS DOES
SHOW A GLANCING BLOW OF COOLER AIR UNDER-CUTTING THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
HIGH. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
COULD APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK RESULTING ANOTHER MAJOR ROUND
OF RAINFALL AND THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH FOR THAT. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...BROKEN MVFR DECKS AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE BEING
OBSERVED THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SQUALL LINE THAT
SHOULD MOVE INTO VCTY OF GLH 16-17Z. A PEAK WIND OF 53KTS WAS
OBSERVED WITH THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS IT PASSED KPBF. THE LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING A
WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH ITS PASSAGE. THE COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS BY 11 AM...AND THEN SLOWLY PUSH
SOUTHEAST TO THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BREAK OUT IN ADVANCE OF THIS LINE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THE BAD WEATHER RISK WITH COME ALONG
THE FRONT. ANTICIPATE IFR CEILINGS AND RAIN TO LAST FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. THE FRONT
SHOULD STALL NEAR THE COAST TOMORROW AND ADDITIONAL RAIN AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM NORTH OF THE FRONT AND AFFECT MUCH
OF THE AREA. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL AT NEARLY ALL SITES ALL
DAY ON SATURDAY. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       88  61  67  58 /  62  89  76  42
MERIDIAN      89  65  69  59 /  43  85  79  55
VICKSBURG     83  58  65  57 /  89  83  57  31
HATTIESBURG   88  69  72  63 /  35  74  68  54
NATCHEZ       85  61  67  58 /  77  85  72  43
GREENVILLE    80  55  64  52 / 100  61  31  15
GREENWOOD     83  56  63  55 /  96  73  43  22

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MSZ018-019-025>028-034>037-040>043-047>049-
     053-059.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

BB/EC
UPDATE:15/22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
257 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>028-034>037-
040>043-047>049-053-054-059>062-102000-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-
HOLMES-ATTALA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-WARREN-HINDS-
RANKIN-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
257 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO THE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS ALONG AND BEHIND OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

MSZ029>033-038-039-044>046-050>052-055>058-063>066-072>074-102000-
WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-LEAKE-
NESHOBA-KEMPER-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-
FORREST-
257 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS HAS BEEN REQUESTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IS NOT EXPECTED
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

22

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
154 PM CDT FRI OCT 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S WAYSIDE             33.25N 91.03W
10/09/2009                   WASHINGTON         MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            *** 1 FATAL *** IN THE VICINITY OF, AND ALONG, KEY ROAD
            JUST OFF OF HIGHWAY 1, APPROXIMATELY 15 MOBILE HOMES
            DAMAGED. THREE WERE DESTROYED WITH 1 FATALITY CONFIRMED.
            SEVERAL MEDIUM TO LARGE SIZE TREES KNOCKED DOWN.

&&

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
204 PM CDT FRI OCT 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0137 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WINONA                  33.49N 89.73W
10/09/2009                   MONTGOMERY         MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN

&&

JALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
206 PM CDT FRI OCT 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0137 PM     DENSE FOG        DUCK HILL               33.63N 89.71W
10/09/2009                   MONTGOMERY         MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOF BLOWN OFF HOUSE IN DUCK HILL COMMUNITY.

&&

JALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
212 PM CDT FRI OCT 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0119 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE CARROLLTON         33.48N 89.90W
10/09/2009                   CARROLL            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS HIGHWAY 35 SOUTH AND ALONG
            HIGHWAY 82 IN CARROLL COUNTY.

&&

JALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
254 PM CDT FRI OCT 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1103 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N RAYVILLE            32.50N 91.76W
10/09/2009                   RICHLAND           LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SERVERAL POWERLINES DOWN WITH SEVERAL POWER OUTAGES
            REPORTED BY RICHLAND SO

&&

JALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
255 PM CDT FRI OCT 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1103 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N RAYVILLE            32.50N 91.76W
10/09/2009                   RICHLAND           LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL POWERLINES DOWN WITH SEVERAL POWER OUTAGES
            REPORTED BY RICHLAND SO

&&

JALLEN