Severe Thunderstorm Warning 520, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
330 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS A GOOD BIT OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS SINKING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION.  THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES SOUTHWEST FROM WEST CENTRAL
TENNESSEE INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA
REGION INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.  BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER DRIER AIR
IS SPILLING SOUTHEASTWARD...EVIDENT FROM THE MID AND UPPER 60 DEW
POINTS THAT ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS ARKANSAS AND WEST
TENNESSEE...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION.

LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO FIRE
ACROSS AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME
STRONG...WITH A FEW PERHAPS BECOMING SEVERE.  ALSO...WITH THE SOUPY
AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A GOOD BIT OF THIS AFTERNOONS CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE BEFORE MENTIONED
COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS SOUTHWARD TREK THROUGH THE REGION.
MEANWHILE BEHIND THE FRONT...AS THE COOLER DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
FILTER IN...LOOK FOR CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT AS LOWS RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S IN THE NORTH ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR TO AROUND 70
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.  WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD...LOOK FOR
WARM BUT LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGHS TOP OUT FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
NORTH TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE SOUTH.  THEN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
A MUCH COOLER FEEL TO THE AIR...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 60S IN THE SOUTH
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR.

THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS COVERING THE
PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. /19/

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY SUNDAY IN
NLY FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SWWD MONDAY...UNDERCUTTING UPPER
RIDGING CENTERED TO OUR WEST. WE WILL SEE A WEAK REFLECTION AT LOW
LEVELS AS WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN GULF AND
EDGES TO THE WEST...THE PRIMARY EFFECT BEING A SHIFT TO MORE ESELY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AFTERNOON CLOUD DECKS. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH MID WEEK. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO CLIMB SLOWLY BY WEDNESDAY
WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH PHASES IN WITH DEVELOPING WESTERLIES OVER THE
NERN U.S. AND BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE GFS DEVELOPS UPPER
RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WED INTO THURSDAY...REFLECTED AT
LOWER LEVELS BY DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE EURO AND GFS
ENSEMBLE RETAIN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER TROUGH OVER THE AREA...FORCING
THE BETTER RIDGING TO THE NORTH OR WEST. WILL FOLLOW DRIER GFS FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIODS FOR NOW. IF THE TROUGH REMAINS PINCHED OFF FROM
THE MAIN FLOW THEN SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OF THIS FEATURE IS
NOT LIKELY. NWLY FLOW BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING TO THE WEST AND
TROUGHING TO OUR EAST WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO THE POSSIBILITY OF MCS
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING UPSTREAM AND PROPAGATING THIS WAY. THE
DEVELOPING WEATHER PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK SUGGESTS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR THIS. A HEALTHY SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PUSH OVER
THE RIDGE INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THURSDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS NRN AR INTO WRN TN...POSSIBLY
SETTING US UP FOR PERIODS OF MORE ACTIVE WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.

THE DRY AIR MASS THAT IS ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN MILD NIGHTTIME/EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. TWEAKED LOWS ONE OR TWO DEGREES COOLER HEAR AND
THERE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /03/

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT APPROACHES A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING AND MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MERIDIAN TO
JACKSON TO TALLULAH STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING THIS
ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT...ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY
DETERIORATE TO IFR...OR EVEN LOCALLY LIFR...CONDITIONS IN THE
VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD AT 5 TO
10 KT. AFTER 22/0600 UTC...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...LEAVING A
DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI BY
LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. /COHEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       66  89  60  88 /  12   0   0   1
MERIDIAN      66  89  58  87 /  27   0   0   1
VICKSBURG     65  89  60  89 /  10   0   0   1
HATTIESBURG   70  92  63  88 /  36   5   0   3
NATCHEZ       68  88  62  86 /  23   2   0   3
GREENVILLE    63  86  58  88 /   6   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     63  86  58  87 /   7   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

19/COHEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
146 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2009

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-MSZ018-019-025>041-221900-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-
LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-
WINSTON-NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-
146 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

LAZ016-023>026-MSZ042>066-072>074-221900-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-YAZOO-
MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-
ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
146 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MERIDIAN TO
JACKSON TO BUDE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
BY MID-EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH WHILE WEAKENING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
BY SATURDAY MORNING...ENDING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

COHEN

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