Severe Thunderstorm Warning 485, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
330 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LOCAL RADARS INDICATE
THAT DAYTIME HEATING IS LEADING TO A RASH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE WHOLE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE THUS FAR HAS BEEN OVER OUR DELTA REGION. A MORE
ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS NOTED OVER NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. THIS
CLUSTER WAS STILL AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL SWING ACROSS OUR
AREA LATER TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND ANY ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BRING A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS WELL AS HEAVY
RAIN. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR OUR HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR AND NORTH. AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES
EAST...THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER OUR REGION EMANATING FROM
THE UPPER LOW OVER MANITOBA WILL SHIFT EAST AS WELL. THIS WILL
RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION AND SEND A WEAK COLD
FRONT INTO OUR CWFA AFTER MIDNIGHT. CURRENT CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN
THIS EVENING WILL THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BUT REDEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN OUR NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY NOON SUNDAY. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR OVER
OUR NORTHERN ZONES. PWS WILL DROP BELOW AN INCH AND A HALF THERE
WHILE REMAINING ABOVE TWO INCHES IN OUR SOUTH. THE DRIER AIR SHOULD
BEGIN TO LIMIT CONVECTION IN OUR NORTH BY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MONDAY NIGHT. WL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND
DROP ALL MENTION OF RAIN FOR MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE TEMPS WERE CLOSE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND GENERALLY ACCEPTED. MAV GUIDANCE LOOKED TOO
WARM IN THE NW ON MONDAY SO CUT A FEW DEGREES THERE BUT MID 90S LOOK
ACHIEVABLE FOR FOR THE NORTHERN HALF MONDAY. /22/

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WILL
BRING A BREAK IN RAINFALL FOR SOME AREAS OF THE ARKLAMISS. FORCING
WILL WEAKEN AS DEEPER UPPER TROUGHING EXITS THE REGION WITH FLAT
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FORECAST AT LOWER LEVELS. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES SRN ZONES HOWEVER AND WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING AND FORECAST CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 WILL
TREND TOWARD WETTER MOS WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON THOSE AREAS. KEPT DRIER NUMBERS FOR THE NORTH AND TRIMMED
CENTRAL POPS SLIGHTLY. FOLLOWED DRIER POPS FOR TUESDAY ACROSS THE
REGION. UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO TIGHTEN A BIT WEDNESDAY...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR NWLY FLOW THAT WILL STEER WAVES INTO THE REGION LATER IN
THE WORK WEEK. WILL FINALLY SEE THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSH IN FROM THE
NW WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL STALL OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY WHEN A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NW. THE REGION
WILL BE POSITIONED IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN EXITING UPPER
JET ADDING INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. CONFIDENCE IN MODEL TIMING AND PROGRESSION IS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED THIS FAR OUT BUT THEY SUGGEST THAT STRONG CONVECTION MAY BE
SETTING UP FOR THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING PERIOD.

EXTENDED MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS AND EURO AGREE THAT A
WAVE WILL BE POISED TO DROP INTO THE REGION THURSDAY BUT THE EURO IS
MUCH FASTER IN SHIFTING STRONGER FLOW TO OUR EAST AND SETS UP STRONG
UPPER RIDGING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND HOLDS ON TO
THE NWLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE AREA TUESDAY. THE
DECREASE IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION NRN/CENTRAL AREAS WILL RESULT IN
MORE DAYTIME HEATING BUT MOS NUMBERS FOR THE NORTH LOOK A BIT TOO
WARM CONSIDERING THE DAMP SOIL CONDITIONS THAT WILL PERSIST. ALSO
CUT HIGHS WEDNESDAY FOR NWRN ZONES SLIGHTLY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AHEAD OF IT WILL PREVENT
LOWER TO MID 90S FORECAST BY MOS. MODELS INDICATE A MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FOR NRN ZONES FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL NOT BITE OFF ON SUCH DRASTIC COOLING YET AND WILL KEEP
LOWS NRN/ERN ZONES IN THE UPPER 60S FOR NOW. /03/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGH MUCH AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.  NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO SITES WHERE THEY ARE OBSERVED.  WE SHOULD SEE A
DECENT BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...
BEFORE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING...OVER AREAS MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.  TIMING THIS ACTIVITY
REMAINS DIFFICULT...AND ILL CONTINUE TO COVER LONG PERIODS WITH THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT
SITES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  90  70  93 /  63  58  21  18
MERIDIAN      73  89  69  92 /  71  62  34  22
VICKSBURG     73  91  70  95 /  63  56  18  15
HATTIESBURG   73  91  72  91 /  36  45  27  46
NATCHEZ       73  90  72  92 /  36  44  20  29
GREENVILLE    72  91  70  95 /  77  39   8   7
GREENWOOD     72  90  70  94 /  80  44  10   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>035.

LA...NONE.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

SHORT TERM: 22
LONG TERM: 03
AVIATION: 19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
258 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2009

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025>035-022000-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-
HUMPHREYS-
258 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A DECENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES
TO COLLIDE WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE INTO
THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
3 INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME OVER THIS AREA.
AS A RESULT...THE FLOODING OF AREA ROADS...SMALL CREEKS AND
STREAMS...AND LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE AND COULD
QUICKLY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AFTER A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD
HAZARDOUS WEATHER FOR SUNDAY IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...
ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ036>066-072>074-022000-
MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
258 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL
AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A DECENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES
TO COLLIDE WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ACTIVITY THIS EVENING.

AFTER A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER
FOR SUNDAY IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...
ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
306 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BROOKLYN                31.06N 89.19W
08/01/2009                   FORREST            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            THREE TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN IN THE BROOKLYN AREA.

&&

HAMRICK

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
412 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2009

MSZ042-043-047>050-012210-
HINDS MS-RANKIN MS-WARREN MS-SCOTT MS-MADISON MS-YAZOO MS-
412 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2009

...A LINE OF DEVELOPING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HEADING THROUGH THE
   METRO JACKSON AREA WITH 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS UP TO ONE INCH WAS LOCATED FROM 6 MILES WEST
OF FLOWERS TO 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FLORENCE AT 409 PM CDT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HEAVY RAINS WILL PRODUCE MINOR STREET FLOODING ALONG WITH FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AS THESE STORMS PASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
METRO AREA INCLUDING THE ROSS BARNETT RESERVOIR THROUGH 5 PM. SECURE
YOUR OUTDOOR PROPERTY FROM THESE WINDS AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY
UNTIL THE STORMS END.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL YAZOO...SOUTHWESTERN MADISON...EXTREME WEST
CENTRAL SCOTT...EAST CENTRAL WARREN...RANKIN AND NORTHERN HINDS
COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

40

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
423 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2009

MSZ030-031-033-012220-
CLAY MS-LOWNDES MS-OKTIBBEHA MS-
423 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2009

...BROKEN LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH
MOVING INTO COLUMBUS AND WEST POINT AREAS MOVING NORTHEAST...

A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY RAINS UP TO ONE INCH WAS LOCATED
FROM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MONTPELIER TO 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BENT
OAK AT 420 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HEAVY RAINS WILL CAUSE MINOR PONDING OF WATER ON STREETS ALONG WITH
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AS THESE STORMS CROSS THE
WEST POINT TO COLUMBUS AREAS THROUGH 500 PM. SECURE YOUR OUTDOOR
PROPERTY FROM THESE WINDS AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY UNTIL THE
STORMS END.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN OKTIBBEHA...LOWNDES AND CLAY COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

40