Severe Thunderstorm Warning 477, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
350 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2009

.UPDATE...UPDATED ZONES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME IMPRESSIVE FLOW AROUND A
MIDLEVEL SHORT WAVE THIS AFTERNOON PUSHING INTO THE ARKLAMISS
REGION. THE MCV OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA WAS
PUSHING TO THE EAST...WHILE STRONG CELLS WERE DEVELOPING FROM THE
SOUTH IN THE SEA BREEZE AS A COMPLEX OF STRONG STORMS WAS PUSHING THROUGH
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS FROM THE WEST. LATEST 18Z
JAN SOUNDING SHOWED AN SB CAPE APPROACHING 4000 FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...GOOD LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS AHEAD OF
THE SHORT WAVE...PWAT NEAR 2 INCHES. IT HAD A LOW LEVEL DRY POCKET
BETWEEN 600 AND 850 MB FOR SOME GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL WITH THE STORMS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO SHOWED SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES
BETWEEN 600 AND 700 MB. AREA RADARS WERE SHOWING STORMS BECOMING
STRONG WITH SOME WARNINGS BEING ISSUED.

FOR THE PERIOD A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL AFFECT THE REGION AS WE
CONTINUE OUR UNUSUAL WET PATTERN.

FOR TONIGHT...OUR WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS WE GET ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINS WITH SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL. MODELS SHOWS THAT A COMPLEX OF
HEAVY STORMS WILL CROSS THE REGION FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS FROM THE WEST AS MORE CELLS COMES FROM THE SOUTH. LOCAL WRF
ENSEMBLES SHOWS ANOTHER COMPLEX COMING INTO THE REGION DURING THE
EVENING HOURS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG
STORMS WITH EFFICIENT HEAVY RAINS. THE COMPLEX OF HEAVY STORMS WILL
VEER OFF FROM THE REGION DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. WENT CLOSE TO MAV
GUIDANCE ON LOWS WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. MADE
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO MODEL POPS...WENT A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE DELTA
REGION. KEPT THE MENTION OF HEAVY STORMS FOR THE NORTH HALF FOR
TONIGHT.

FOR FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW A COMPLEX OF HEAVY STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH
HALF OF THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE HEAVY STORMS WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL KEEP GOOD POPS ACROSS
THE REGION ALL DAY. EXPECT SEA BREEZE STORMS TO KEEP THINGS GOING IN
THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO WENT WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTH WITH
HEAVY POTENTIAL SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND CHANCE POPS NORTH. WENT
CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOWS THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
GIVE US SOME TEMPORARY SUBSIDENCE AS WE AWAIT FOR ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SATURDAY. SO MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO MODEL
LOW POPS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. WENT CLOSE
TO MAV GUIDANCE.

FOR SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION. WENT WITH MAV GUIDANCE ON GOOD CHANCE POPS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S./17/

HAZARD WEATHER AFTERNOON UPDATE...
UPDATE...WITH REGARD TO HAZARDOUS WEATHER NEXT 24 HOURS...BECOMING
INCREASINGLY CONCERNED ABOUT SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...
PARTICULARLY FOR THE ARKLAMISS DELTA THIS AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY
EXPANDING ENE INTO THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE REGION THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. VERY ANOMALOUS SETUP FOR JULY ACROSS REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH 30-40 KT 850 MB LLJ SHOWN BY PROFILERS/VWP ACROSS
AR/LA/E TX. THIS IS FEEDING 16-17C 850 MB DEWPOINTS AND A SWATH OF 2
INCH PW VALUES INTO THE REGION. COMBINATION OF STG LLJ AND EXTREME
MOISTURE LEADS TO MOISTURE TRANSPORT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 300 G/KG
FOCUSED INTO THE ARKLAMISS BY LATER TODAY...AND ACROSS MUCH OF NRN
MS TONIGHT. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SUBTLE BOUNDARY LYING FROM THE
ARKLATEX ENE INTO NRN AL. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY
CONVECTIVE RAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY
DRIVING MCS OVER ARKLATEX APPROACHES. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-3 INCHES LOOK LIKELY ACROSS THIS REGION BY 12Z FRI...BUT LOCALIZED
TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES LOOK POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING OCCURS GIVEN
EFFICIENT RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR BACK BUILDING GIVEN VERY WEAK
CORFIDI VECTORS WITH SOME ORIENTATION ALONG THE FLOW PARTICULARLY
TONIGHT. 06Z RUN OF LOCAL WRF ENSEMBLE SHOWS PROBABILITIES GREATER
THAN 50 PCT OF SOME 5 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE DELTA...WITH
10-20 PCT PROBS OF SPOTS GREATER THAN 10 INCHES.

FFG VALUES ARE EXTREMELY LOW ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION N OF
I-20...AND SOME SPOTS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING. FARTHER
S...ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL SEEMS LESS LIKELY...AND FFG VALUES ARE
MUCH HIGHER GIVEN RECENT DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER...SOME LOCALIZED
PONDING ISSUES COULD BE A CONCERN WHERE CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

WHILE FLASH FLOODING IS THE BIGGEST CONCERN...SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO
AN ISSUE...PARTICULARLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WELL
ORGANIZED MCV MOVING THROUGH E TX AS THE PRESENT TIME AS SHOWN BY 50
KT REAR INFLOW JET AT 850 MB AS SHOWN A PALATINE TX PROFILER. AREA
SOUNDINGS SHOW SBCAPE VALUES OF 3500 TO 4500 J/KG BY AFTERNOON GIVEN
TEMPS NEAR 90F AND DEWPOINTS IN MID 70S. COMBINED WITH ENVIRONMENTAL
500 MB FLOW OF 20-35 KT..EXPECT SOME ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION
WITH LINES AND POSSIBLY A FEW HP SUPERCELLS AS DISCUSSED BY SPC.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME WET MICROBURSTS...AND WITH SUPERCELLS A LOW
RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO GIVEN
MODERATE VALUES OF LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND VERY LOW LCL HEIGHTS.

HWO COVERS SETUP QUITE WELL...BUT DID TWEAK THE HAZARD GRIDS TO
INCREASE THE FLASH FLOOD AND SEVERE POTENTIAL VALUES JUST A BIT
GIVEN LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL TRENDS.             /08/

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. EXPECT GREATEST RISK FOR
PERSISTENT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN PRECIP TO BE AT KGWO/KGTR THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH KGLH...KJAN AND KMEI ALSO LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE SUCH CONDITIONS AT TIMES. KHBG LOOKS TO HAVE MORE OF A
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE RISK THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL INDICATE
ACCORDINGLY IN TAFS. LATEST GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO KHBG...AND HAVE SHOWN
PREDOMINANT TSRA THERE TOWARD MORNING. BEHIND THIS CONVECTIVE
SETUP...WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO NW AND BECOME LIGHT LATE TONIGHT AT
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ZONES...LIKELY ALONG WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS GIVEN
DRY AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADING EXTREMELY MOIST LOWER LEVELS GIVEN
RECENT AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

&&
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...IT APPEARS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST THAT THE ONSLAUGHT OF SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FOR A BIT LONGER. THE TREND OF MODELS HAS
BEEN TO DELAY THE INTRUSION OF A RIDGE FROM THE WEST.

FOR THE WEEKEND...EXPECT A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF DISTURBANCES TO COME
THROUGH THE AREA EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW SANDWICHED BETWEEN A
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CANADA.
THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN/SVR WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO EXCEED 2
INCHES...AND WITH FAIRLY GOOD WESTERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW OF
20-30KTS...WHICH WILL ADVECT IN 340K+ 850 THETAE AIR...WE CAN EXPECT
TO CONTINUE WITH THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

THE TRAIN OF DISTURBANCES LOOK TO START TO DWINDLE BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS WESTERN RIDGE WANTS TO TRY TO NOSE INTO THE REGION AND
HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE. A FINAL(AT THIS POINT) DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE REALLY STARTS TO
BUILD IN. RISING HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN THE RELAXATION OF FLOW AND
WEAKER FORCING....THUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE
DISORGANIZED AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF. WHEN
THE RIDGE FINALLY DECIDES TO BUILD BACK IN...GIVEN VERY SATURATED
SOILS...WE SHOULD NOT SEE THOSE 100+ DEGREE TEMPS. HOWEVER...BE
PREPARED FOR SOME STEAMY CONDITIONS AS HEAT INDICES WILL MAKE IT
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 90S/NEAR 100.

OVERALL...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS...HAVE GONE WITH
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS POPS SEEM
REASONABLE. AFTER THE WEEKEND...LOWER END POPS ARE INTRODUCED AS
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS SHOULD BE THE NORM. TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE AS
NEAR AVERAGE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. GUI WAS BEGINNING TO COME IN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS THE RIDGE WAS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THIS
MAY BE THE CASE...BUT GIVEN SATURATED SOILS...I AM AFRAID IT MIGHT
BE TRYING TO GET A LITTLE WARM A LITTLE TOO QUICK...SO TWEAKED A
COUPLE OF HIGH SITES DOWN A DEGREE ON A COUPLE OF DAYS TO KEEP IN
THE LOWER 90S. OVERALL...MAV/MEX TEMPS AND POPS SEEM REASONABLE. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  89  72  90 /  90  54  30  49
MERIDIAN      74  86  71  90 /  82  58  30  49
VICKSBURG     74  90  74  92 /  92  51  30  49
HATTIESBURG   75  88  74  91 /  73  74  30  64
NATCHEZ       74  87  74  90 /  73  60  30  50
GREENVILLE    70  88  70  91 /  91  24  30  52
GREENWOOD     71  88  72  89 /  91  26  30  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MSZ018-019-025>050.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>025.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR ARZ074-075.

08/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
206 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2009

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>025-MSZ018-019-025>050-311915-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-
GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-
WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-
SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-
206 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND MOST OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE THE
ENTIRE AREA HAS A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING...THE GREATEST RISK LOOKS TO
BE FROM THE LOWER DELTA REGION INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE JACKSON METRO AREA...VICKSBURG...YAZOO
CITY...KOSCIUSKO... TALLULAH...AND WINNSBORO. LOCALIZED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WHICH WOULD POTENTIALLY
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE NIGHT...BUT ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS TO 60
MPH...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

LAZ026-MSZ051>066-072>074-311915-
CONCORDIA-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
206 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY COULD THEN REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...BUT AS A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

08

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
339 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LAKE PROVIDENCE         32.81N 91.18W
07/30/2009                   EAST CARROLL       LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN...POWER POLE DOWN...AND HIGH VOLTAGE POWER
            LINES DOWN. APPROX 300 CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER.

&&

JALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
353 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0346 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E HICKORY             32.32N 89.00W
07/30/2009                   NEWTON             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ACROSS HIGHWAY 80 BETWEEN HICKORY AND CHUNKY.

&&

JALLEN

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