Severe Thunderstorm Warning 451, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
325 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS FIRING ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...FROM THE MCS THAT SKIRTED THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...CONTINUES TO SURGE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON.   AS IT DOES SO...LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH ALONG AND JUST AHEAD IT.  A STORM
OR TWO COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
ALONG WITH SOME HAIL.  WITH THE ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY WANE THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARDS DAY BREAK
FRIDAY MORNING THOUGH...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO
SWING EAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  THIS
LOOKS TO CAUSE YET ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS TO DEVELOP AND RACE
EAST SOUTHEAST.  THIS COMPLEX COULD VERY WELL IMPACT MY NORTHERN
ZONES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  THUS ILL MAINTAIN POPS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH
FOR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

FRIDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE ITLL BE OUR BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE CWA AS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION.  THIS WILL FORCE A COLD
FRONT...THAT CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...TO DROP SOUTH TOWARDS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AT PRESENT...THE BEST COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND STORMS STILL
LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HALVES OF THE CWA  DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. NORTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE GOOD
STORMS EARLY IN THE DAY WHICH SHOULD LOWER THEIR SEVERE POTENTIAL AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES.  WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
THESE AREAS...ILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR
FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.   IN
ADDITION TO THIS...WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE ROOTED OVER THE AREA AS
PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 2-2.5 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BEGINNING WITH
SATURDAY. /19/

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...WE WILL HAVE AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
REGION WHICH WILL SEND THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS GENERAL PATTERN WAS AGREED UPON BY THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THINGS SHOULD
DRY OUT IN THE SOUTH BY SUNDAY EVENING. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL PROVIDE LESS WARM DAYS AND SOME
POSSIBLE RECORD LOWS FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
SHOWS 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL WEAKEN AS WE MOVE INTO
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS FLAT UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL INCREASE PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO THE ARKLAMISS BY
WEDNESDAY. THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM SOME FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGHS TREND TOWARD THE
LOWER 90S. AS FOR LOWS WE MAY BE TOUCHING SOME RECORD READINGS FOR
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MIDDLE
50S(WHICH IS 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW RECORD LOWS) TO MIDDLE 60S FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING...THEN WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S BY TUESDAY MORNING. READINGS WILL RISE TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE
REGION. AS FAR AS LOW TEMPS ARE CONCERN WENT CLOSE TO MEX NUMBERS
FOR THE COOL NIGHTS...WHICH IS AROUND THE LOW SIDE OF THE MOS
ENSEMBLES NUMBERS. WENT WITH THE HIGH SIDE OF THE ENSEMBLE NUMBERS
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WENT CLOSE
TO A MEX NUMBERS...WHICH IS ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE ENSEMBLE NUMBERS.
AS FAR AS POPS ARE CONCERN CUT DOWN POPS SOME SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20
FOR THE WEEKEND. /17/

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING SUBSIDES. PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE HEAVIER
RAINFALL OCCURRED. ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
OVER NWRN ZONES AS STORMS REDEVELOP TO OUR NW AND POSSIBLY BUILD
INTO OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCT-NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS IT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA. QUIETER
WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       76  90  66  89 /  40  68  38   6
MERIDIAN      75  88  66  86 /  58  74  43   7
VICKSBURG     75  92  65  89 /  26  60  30   5
HATTIESBURG   74  90  70  89 /  48  68  47  17
NATCHEZ       75  90  68  86 /  21  61  32   9
GREENVILLE    76  90  62  88 /  41  55  15   4
GREENWOOD     74  90  62  88 /  46  56  18   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

19/17/03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
343 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

LAZ007>009-MSZ035>046-050>052-172045-
MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-
WINSTON-NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-
KEMPER-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
343 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISK WITH STORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH BUT PENNY SIZED HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY.

LAZ015-016-023>026-MSZ047>049-053>066-072>074-172045-
RICHLAND-MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-WARREN-
HINDS-RANKIN-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-
JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
343 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
AND EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISK WITH STORMS EACH DAY WILL
BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH BUT PENNY SIZED HAIL CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING.

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025>034-172045-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-
343 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP TO OUR
NORTHWEST LATE. THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE STORMS MAY MOVE INTO NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS TOWARD SUNRISE. THE RISK OF
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH BUT PENNY SIZED HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

03

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
736 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-034-170145-
ASHLEY AR-CHICOT AR-BOLIVAR MS-WASHINGTON MS-
736 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HEADING TOWARD ASHLEY...
CHICOT...BOLIVAR...AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 732 PM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS WAS MOVING EAST TOWARD ASHLEY AND
CHICOT COUNTIES IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND BOLIVAR AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN WESTERN MISSISSIPPI.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST 40 TO 50 MPH WIND
GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AS THE MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 8 PM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...WESTERN BOLIVAR...CHICOT AND
ASHLEY COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

EEC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
801 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

MSZ072-170120-
MARION MS-
801 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBIA AT 802
PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE AT ANYTIME.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL MARION COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

CME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
804 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

MSZ048-170115-
HINDS MS-
804 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER HINDS COUNTY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL WAS
LOCATED OVER HINDS COUNTY AT 804 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN EAST CENTRAL HINDS COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

OLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
805 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             3 S COLUMBIA            31.21N 89.83W
07/16/2009  E0.50 INCH       MARION             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PEA TO DIME HAIL S OF COLUMBIA.

&&

CME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
822 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

MSZ073-074-170130-
FORREST MS-LAMAR MS-
822 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAMAR AND FORREST COUNTIES...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL WAS
LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PURVIS AT 822 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN LAMAR AND CENTRAL FORREST COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS
STORM CLOSELY.

OLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
830 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CROSSETT                33.13N 91.97W
07/16/2009                   ASHLEY             AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN REPORTED BY ASHLEY COUNTY EMA

&&

EC