Severe Thunderstorm Warning 406, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
250 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG MID TO UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTH TEXAS.
ALSO SEE SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH...MOVING SOUTHEAST.
LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE NORTH
AND EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL COME THROUGH THROUGH
THE REGION OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED CONVECTION. A FEW OF THE STORMS
IN THE NORTH AND EAST COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. WILL CONFINE THE ISOLATED
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOCAL WRF AND NATIONAL WRF MODELS
SHOW A RATHER QUIET NIGHT...BUT ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. IT WILL BE ANOTHER HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S...WHICH IS CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE.

FOR SUNDAY...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL COME THROUGH THE
REGION...BUT ONCE AGAIN ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 20. BEST LOW SCATTERED POPS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. COULD STILL BE A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS AROUND THE 82 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S. PREFERRED THE CURRENT FORECAST. AS MODELS TRY TO WARM INTO
THE MIDDLE 90S TOO QUICKLY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AS THE CENTER
MOVES TOWARD SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. THIS WILL LIMIT CHANCES OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST THIRD DURING THE NIGHT. PREFERRED CURRENT
FORECAST POPS AS MODELS TRY TO DRY THE REGION OUT TOO QUICKLY. LOWS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHICH IS CLOSE TO MOS
GUIDANCE.

FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HINDER
ANY RAIN CHANCES. SO PUT IN ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH
AND LEFT MONDAY NIGHT DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S...WENT WITH CURRENT FORECAST OVER WARMER MODEL TEMPS. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHICH IS CLOSE TO
MOS GUIDANCE./17/

./PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF WILL
KEEP THE AREA HOT AND DRY FOR THE MOST PART. THE STALLED BOUNDARY
REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STORM COMPLEXES WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AROUND TUESDAY AND THE
AREA REMAINS DRY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
BACK AND FORTH THROUGH THE WEEK AND FLATTENS AROUND SATURDAY. A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT THE RAIN
CHANCES SEEM SMALL.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID AND UPPER 90S. LOWERED HIGHS NEARLY EVERY AFTERNOON ABOUT 2
DEGREES EVERYWHERE. WITH NO CHANGES IN THE AIRMASS...WITH ALL OF THE
MOISTURE...NOT CONFIDENT TEMPERATURES WILL GET ABOVE LOWER 90S. STUCK
WITH GUIDANCE POPS. THERE WERE SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES IN SEVERAL
AFTERNOONS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. IT IS UNCLEAR WHY THE MODEL IS
SUGGESTING RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. VALUES WERE LOW
AROUND 20 PERCENT OR LESS...SO STUCK WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT SITES
GLH/GWO/GTR/CBM/JAN/MEI/HKS THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING...WITH
GREATEST CHANCES OF OCCURRENCE AT GWO/GTR/CBM. IFR CONDITIONS AND
SEVERE TURBULENCE CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY OF THESE
STORMS BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...A WEAK BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WILL
BE A FOCUS OF VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS AND PATCHY NOCTURNAL LOW CLOUDS
(MVFR/IFR) THROUGH TOMORROW. DAYTIME CU BASES WILL BE ALMOST
ENTIRELY ABOVE 3 KFT WITH ONLY VERY PATCHY OCCURRENCES OF LIGHT FOG
(MVFR) ANTICIPATED LATE TONIGHT AWAY FROM MENTIONED BOUNDARY.
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
EVENING IN AT LEAST SITES GWO/GTR/CBM. /BB/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

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