Severe Thunderstorm Warning 351, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1110 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2009

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATE: THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS ACTIVE OVER WRN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING...BUT THUNDERSTORM
INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED SOME IN ACCORD WITH THE TYPICAL DIURNAL
MINIMUM SEEN THIS TIME OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER CNTRL/ERN PORTIONS OF MS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN. WITH VERY WEAK
FLOW...MOST STORMS SHOULD BE OF THE PULSE TYPE AND UNORGANIZED.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS > 1.5 INCHES AND MIXED LAYER CAPE
APPROACHING 3000 J/KG THIS AFTN WOULD YIELD A FEW STRONG TO SVR
TSTMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WILL KEEP THIS MENTION GOING IN THE
HWO. IN THE FORECAST GRIDS...HAVE UPPED POPS SOME FOR THIS AFTN AND
REMOVED TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE DELTA REGION WHERE THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY PASSED THROUGH. HAVE ALSO LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A
LITTLE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.  THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION IS
BELOW. /EC/

PREVIOUS UPDATE:

UPDATE: A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE NEXT FEW HOURS OF THE
FORECAST GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR NE LA AND NC MS. /EC/

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS HEATING SUBSIDES THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO CALM
DOWN TO LEAVE THE REGION QUIET FOR THE MID AND LATE EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CWFA ON FRIDAY TO
KEEP WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS OVER THE CWFA.  AS HEATING BEGINS
OVER THE AREA...MORE DIURNAL CONVECTIONS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE CWFA.  THERE SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF LAPSE
RATES OVER THE CWFA.  THERE WILL ALSO BE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CWFA.  SO IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY HARDER TO SEE AS MUCH STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY.  HOWEVER WILL NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE OF INTENSE STORMS. AGAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIE DOWN BY THE EVENING HOURS TO LEAVE A RELATIVELY QUIET
NIGHT FOR THE ARKLAMISS REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE ARKLAMISS.  HIGHS BOTH TODAY AND ON
FRIDAY SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING THE UPPER 80S.  LOW TEMPERATURES
BOTH NIGHTS SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.  OVERALL HAVE
REMAINED WITH GUI FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. /14/

LONG TERM(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES
ON SATURDAY WITH PWATS RISING FROM 1.5 INCHES TO 1.7+ INCHES AHEAD OF
INCOMING COLD FRONT FROM THE NW. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD ARRIVE IN OUR
NWRN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND REACH THE SERN ZONES BY SUNDAY EVENING.
RICH MOISTURE...DECENT INSTABILITY AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL
PRECEDE THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH K INDEXES 30-35...MLCAPES
1500-2000J/KG AND 6C 7-500MB LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS. EVEN THOUGH 850MB THETA E VALUES APPROACHING
330K...WIND SHEAR VALUES REMAIN QUITE LIMITED WITH 700-500MB MID
LEVEL FLOW LESS THAN 15 KTS. THAT WILL LIMIT TSRA DEVELOPMENT TO
MAINLY HAIL/ HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN...GFS/ECMWF MODELS BOTH SHOWING CONSIDERABLE
POST-FRONTAL SHRA BAND LASTING UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING
FROM NW TO SE.

A 1030MB+ SURFACE HIGH PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE MID MS VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL GIVE US SOME DRIER/COOLER AIR FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS
NEXT WEEK AS IT MOVES EWD. WHILE LIMITED MOISTURE COULD BACK WWD
ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON TUESDAY...THE MORE CRITICAL FEATURE WILL
PROBABLY BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 500MB CUTOFF LOW IN THE ERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE ECMWF IS FARTHER SE THAN THE GFS WITH THIS FEATURE ON
ITS MOST RECENT RUNS FOR NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH
SOLUTIONS AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD DRIFT NWD TOWARD THE FL
PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY AND WILL INTRODUCE SOME POPS BY THAT TIME...
MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF MS.

TEMP GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A DECENT DOSE OF CONTINUITY FOR SATURDAY/
SUNDAY AND HAVE GONE A LITTLE CLOSER TO ENSEMBLE MEANS AS WE HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPECT COOLEST DAY WILL COME ON SUNDAY WITH NLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELDS CONTINUING TO BRING IN A
COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. READINGS SHOULD DIP INTO THE 50S
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS(PROBABLY FOR THE LAST TIME THIS
SPRING). THE COOL AIR WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG AS RIDGING AT THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO BRING BACK ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE ARKLAMISS REGION BY MID WEEK. /40/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DIE DOWN AFTER
SUNSET. FOG/STRATUS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING ON FRIDAY BRINGING WITH IT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF
THE AREA. /15/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1201 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2009

MSZ074-141800-
FORREST MS-
1101 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2009

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS FORREST
COUNTY. RAINFALL OF UP TO TWO INCHES COULD FALL IN LESS THAN AN HOUR
WITH THESE STORMS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS WELL.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN FORREST COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

EEC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1202 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2009

MSZ074-141800-
FORREST MS-
1202 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2009

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS FORREST
COUNTY. RAINFALL OF UP TO TWO INCHES COULD FALL IN LESS THAN AN HOUR
WITH THESE STORMS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS WELL.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN FORREST COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

EEC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1212 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2009

MSZ074-141755-
FORREST MS-
1212 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2009

A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME
SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WERE LOCATED NEAR BROOKLYN AT 1211
PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AS
WELL.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN FORREST COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

EEC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1235 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1229 PM     HAIL             2 NNW BROOKLYN          31.08N 89.20W
05/14/2009  E0.50 INCH       FORREST            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON HIGHWAY 49 BY HATTIESBURG EOC.

&&

BRYANT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
106 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2009

MSZ073-141835-
LAMAR MS-
106 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2009

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BAXTERVILLE AT
106 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN LAMAR COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

BYB

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