Severe Thunderstorm Warning 346, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
259 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009

.SHORT TERM...THE FRONT THAT WAS LOCATED NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING
CONTINUES TO LIFT NWD AND WAS LOCATED NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS LIFTED IN ITS WAKE WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...THE AIR MASS
REMAINS CAPPED ENOUGH TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION SO FAR OTHER
THAN CELLS RELATED TO SEA BREEZE S OF THE FORECAST AREA. STARTING TO
SEE WEAK CELLS DEVELOP OVER SRN SECTIONS OF THE FA. DEVELOPING
CONVECTION SRN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMTS DUE TO WEAK
AND UNORGANIZED WIND FIELDS. CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
THIS WAY FROM SRN AR WILL MAINTAIN BEST POPS OVER NWRN ZONES THIS
EVENING. SMALL CHANCE THAT THE CLUSTER WILL INTENSIFY SOME IF IT CAN
INTERSECT BOUNDARY DURING THE EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF WIND OR SHEAR SUPPORT AND ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE
AROUND SUNSET.

MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE
BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY
UNSTABLE BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING OR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS INICATED AND FLAT RIDGING ADVERTISED FOR TOMORROW WILL HELP
MAINTAIN CAPPING EFFECT. DECIDED NOT TO SPLIT HAIRS AND FOLLOWED MOS
WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION BY THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE UNSTABLE AIR
MASS BUT CAPPING MAY WELL PREVENT ACTIVITY TOMORROW. SCATTERED
CONVECTION CONTIUED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT HEALTHY SURFACE
BOUNDARY DROPS INTO AR/NWRN TN WITH 850 MB THETAE VALUES GREATER
THAN 330 OVER THE ARKLAMISS. FLOW REMAINS WEAK BUT MODELS SUGGEST
WEAK FORCING IN THE FORM OF A WEAK PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE OR
POSSIBLY A WEAK WAVE ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A BIT OF RIDGING ALOFT AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING IN WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH
SHOULD LEAVE THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT RATHER QUIET.

BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND THE EASTERN CONUS SHOULD SEE AN UPPER
TROUGH MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THIS REGION. THIS WILL BRING A BOUNDARY
TOWARD THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA
ON SUNDAY...BRINGING WITH IT CONVECTION TO KEEP THE ARKLAMISS REGION
WET FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AND LEAVE THE CWFA ON MONDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION
TO LEAVE THE AREA DRY FOR A COUPLE DAYS.

OVERALL HAVE REMAINED PRETTY MUCH WITH GUI FOR POPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND
INTO SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MIDDLE 80S
EXPECTED. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
COOLER FOR THE ARKLAMISS REGION.  HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING TO THE ARKLAMISS. /14/

&&

.AVIATION...OCCASIONAL MVFR/VFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WE GO
THROUGH THE AFTN INTO EARLY EVNG AS A WEAK WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO
FOCUS LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER TSTM COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER AR
MAY RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATER TODAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR TSTMS
AT MOST TAF SITES. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LIFR CONDITIONS WITH
FOG/STRATUS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT UNTIL ABOUT 15Z WEDNESDAY. THE WEAK
WARM FRONT WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL AFTN TSTM ACTIVITY
THURSDAY...PRIMARILY IN CNTRL/ERN MS. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       67  84  67  85 /  12  24   7  25
MERIDIAN      64  84  65  85 /  19  41  11  35
VICKSBURG     67  85  68  86 /   9  14   6  19
HATTIESBURG   67  85  68  86 /  24  42  13  37
NATCHEZ       67  85  68  85 /  15  25   8  20
GREENVILLE    66  85  69  86 /  30  13   7  15
GREENWOOD     66  85  68  85 /  25  19   8  22

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

03/14/EC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
316 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025-027-034>036-
040>042-047-132030-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-CARROLL-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ISSAQUENA-
SHARKEY-YAZOO-WARREN-
316 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COMPLEX THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS PUSHES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION. ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 60 MPH. IN ADDITION...SOME STORMS COULD MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE
SAME AREAS BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
EXPECT THE STORMS TO WEAKEN WITH SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

MSZ026-028>033-037>039-043>046-048>066-072>074-132030-
GRENADA-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-
WINSTON-NOXUBEE-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
316 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

EC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
726 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009

MSZ055-130055-
SIMPSON MS-
726 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SHIVERS AT 727 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL SIMPSON COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

EEC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
731 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 NE TILTON            31.52N 89.90W
05/12/2009                   JEFFERSON DAVIS    MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE BLOWN DOWN ON A POWERLINE AND CAUGHT ON FIRE IN
            OAKVALE.

&&

JFAIRLY

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>