Severe Thunderstorm Warning 168, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1206 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

.DISCUSSION...THE DEWPOINTS TO WEST WERE STEADILY INCREASING AS THE
WARM FRONT TRACKED NORTH. SEVERE STORMS WERE STARTING TO EXTEND INTO
THE WESTERN ZONES. RUC SHOWS 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 OR 8 WITH
500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -12 TO -13. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...BUT THE LOWER LEVELS AT JACKSON WERE STILL DRY. LOOKING
FOR ELEVATED HAIL PRODUCING STORMS CONTINUE FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...MAINLY THE LOUISIANA PARISHES AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
COUNTIES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LINE OF STORMS WAS ALREADY
BARING DOWN ON WESTERN LOUISIANA AND WILL LIKELY BE MOVING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AROUND 2 PM. MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE WEATHER GRIDS TO INCREASE THUNDER WORDING IN THE WEST.
THINKING AT THIS TIME THAT LINE OF STORMS WILL BE OVER SE AR/NE LA
FROM 2-4...ALONG THE RIVER 3-6 INTO THE I-55 CORRIDOR FROM 5-8 AND
INTO THE EAST FROM 8-12A AND LIKELY LINGERING OVER THE FAR E/SE
COUNTIES A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOWERED THE TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE STRATUS REFUSES
TO DISSIPATE AND TEMPERATURES WERE STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER
60S. THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEE STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND TRACK
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY MOVING INTO THE
GREENVILLE AREA WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HAIL IS LIKELY FROM NOW THROUGH 2 PM. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER 2 PM. LOOK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT GLH FROM 2-6P...GWO/JAN 4-8P...MEI/GTR 7-11P AND HBG
FROM 8P UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THUNDERSTORMS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN WINDS FROM 10 TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS TO
30KTS POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER 6Z CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM THE WEST THROUGH
14Z. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING
BRINGING CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES TO GLH/GWO/GTR. CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3KFT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT
ALL SITES FROM 15Z THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       73  60  79  53 /  78  88  20  13
MERIDIAN      73  59  77  50 /  57  94  31  26
VICKSBURG     73  58  79  50 /  88  77  18   9
HATTIESBURG   74  62  78  58 /  57  82  36  16
NATCHEZ       74  60  79  47 /  82  65  17   7
GREENVILLE    71  56  77  48 /  93  73  20  14
GREENWOOD     70  58  79  48 /  80  83  20  25

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR MSZ028>033-
     037>039-044>046-050>052-056>058-065-066-073-074.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>027-034>036-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>064-072.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-
     015-016-023>026.

AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

7

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
608 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ034-035-040>043-047>050-
053>055-059>063-131115-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-WASHINGTON-
HUMPHREYS-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
608 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING. SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES...ARE EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFTER ABOUT 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THE
STORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION AND A STRONG JET STREAM WILL CREATE VERY STRONG WIND
SHEAR AND AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAKS. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST
INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MSZ051-052-056>058-064>066-072>074-131115-
NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
608 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY
TORNADOES...ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AROUND 9 PM THIS EVENING AND THEN
AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION AND A STRONG JET STREAM WILL CREATE VERY STRONG WIND
SHEAR AND AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAKS. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST
INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

MSZ018-019-025>033-036>039-044>046-131115-
BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-
LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-LEAKE-
NESHOBA-KEMPER-
608 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING...LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS...ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AFTER ABOUT 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE EVENING. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS.

A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION AND A STRONG JET STREAM WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS TO BRING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. RESIDENTS SHOULD KEEP INFORMED OF
THE LATEST UPDATES CONCERNING THIS THUNDERSTORM EVENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

EC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1115 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 AM     HAIL             4 NE CROSSETT           33.17N 91.92W
04/12/2009  E1.00 INCH       ASHLEY             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1127 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1108 AM     HAIL             2 NE CROSSETT           33.15N 91.94W
04/12/2009  E1.25 INCH       ASHLEY             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BUSTED WINDSHIELD ON A SO VEHICLE.

&&

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1207 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     HAIL             LAKE VILLAGE            33.32N 91.28W
04/12/2009  E1.00 INCH       CHICOT             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

CME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1227 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

ARZ074-121810-
ASHLEY AR-
1227 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL WAS
LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF WEST CROSSETT AT 1227 PM CDT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN ASHLEY COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

CAW