River Flood Warning 89, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
328 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2009

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH AN ALREADY
WARM...VERY MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA AND A COLD FRONT TRAILING IN ITS WAKE...CONVECTION
IS ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.  SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN ON THE STRONG TO
SEVERE SIDE THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
CASE DURING THE EVENING WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS. ALSO...WITH SUCH A SOUPY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND COULD
RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS SOUTHEASTWARD TREK.  BEHIND THE
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH SOME
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.

SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE
REGION.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH...RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR.  HIGH
PRESSURE DURING THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD DEEPER INTO THE
REGION WHILE FILTERING IN A COOLER DRIER AIRMASS.  AS A
RESULT...LOOK FOR THERE TO BE AN ALMOST FALL-LIKE FEEL TO THE AIR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE
MID 40S AND LOWER 50S.

THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. /19/

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL GIVE US SOME DRIER/MUCH COOLER AIR FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK AS IT MOVES EAST. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE
DOWN TO AT LEAST 10C OR SLIGHTLY COOLER. THESE VALUES WOULD TRANSLATE
TO LOWS 48-55F AND HIGHS 71-78F FOR MONDAY. TEMPS WILL SPILL INTO THE
LOWER 80S AS WE GET INTO TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL
OCCUR AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THEN TEMPS WILL PUSH TOWARD THE MIDDLE 80S BY WEDNESDAY WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BY THURSDAY MORNING.

GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED CIRCULATION IN
THE EASTERN GULF ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH WESTWARD
TO THE LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTAL REGION ON THURSDAY...WHILE
THIS FEATURE PUSHES WERE IN THE CENTRAL GULF AT THIS TIME ON THE
EUROPEAN. THE EUROPEAN MODEL THEN PUSHES IT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
GULF COAST ON FRIDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE UPPER LOW AROUND THE COASTAL
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW
AROUND THE ARKLAMISS REGION THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THE
EUROPEAN MODEL FINALLY BRINGS THIS FEATURE INTO THE REGION AFTER
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

THE NET RESULT WILL BE SEVERAL DAYS OF NELY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
FOR OUR REGION WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. WE WILL START TO GET SOME CHANCES OF CONVECTION FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS WE START TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LOW COMING FROM THE EAST.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN WENT CLOSE TO MOS AND HPC GUIDANCE.
THE COOLEST DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
THE COOLEST NIGHT WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S.  RECORD LOWS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE GENERALLY IN THE
MIDDLE 40S. THE COOL AIR WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG. PLENTY OF DAILY SUN
WILL HELP MODIFY THE AIR MASS TO BRING BACK NEAR NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO THE ARKLAMISS REGION FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. /17/

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS BKN-OVC FROM 2-4K FEET CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BRIEFLY SEE LOWER CIGS/VSBY FLIGHT
CATEGORIES IN PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL END IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT BUT MVFR CIGS AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR
AROUND 10 PM AND MAY STALL IN THE VICINITY OF HIGHWAY 84 AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY FOR DRIER
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. /03/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       63  69  50  76 /  82  54   9   0
MERIDIAN      64  69  47  77 /  79  64  11   0
VICKSBURG     62  70  51  77 /  79  49   8   0
HATTIESBURG   66  72  52  78 /  69  66  14   0
NATCHEZ       63  69  49  75 /  69  41   8   0
GREENVILLE    57  70  49  75 /  53  26   4   0
GREENWOOD     56  69  48  76 /  60  34   5   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

19/03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
347 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2009

LAZ007>009-015-016-023-MSZ026>030-032-035>037-040>042-047-172100-
MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-
FRANKLIN LA-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-CHOCTAW-
HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-WARREN-
347 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND NORTH
AND WEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

ONE OR TWO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRACK SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS. SEVERE STORMS WILL PRODUCE NICKEL SIZE
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. STORM CHANCES WILL END AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

LAZ024>026-MSZ031-033-038-039-043>046-048>066-072>074-172100-
CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-LOWNDES-OKTIBBEHA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-
ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
347 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI AND EAST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

ONE OR TWO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
ENTERPRISE LA TO JACKSON TO COLUMBUS...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL TRACK SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS. SEVERE STORMS
WILL PRODUCE NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH.
OTHERWISE...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FLOODING OF
ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. STORM CHANCES WILL END AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. THE COLD
FRONT MAY STALL OVER SOUTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...MAINTAINING THE
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND STANDING WATER ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM NATCHEZ TO QUITMAN THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025-034-172100-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-WASHINGTON-
347 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

03