River Flood Warning 14, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
340 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2009

.DISCUSSION...STRONG UPPER SYSTEM GETTING CLOSER TO THE REGION AND
LOCAL WEATHER HAS BEEN RESPONDING NICELY AND NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW
MORE OF AN EASTWARD PUSH TO THE COLD FRONT AND LEADING CONVECTIVE
LINE. SVR RISK IS JUST ABOUT DONE FOR THE CWA WITH ONLY THE EXTREME
SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA STILL HAVE A RISK UNTIL ABOUT 430-5 PM. HEAVY
RAINFALL IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THROUGH 5-7 PM MAINLY FOR AREAS FROM
COLUMBIA TO NEWTON TO MACON. FFA IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM...AND THAT
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. WE MAY STILL HAVE A FEW FLOOD RELATED
WARNINGS GOING PAST 6 PM. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE THE FLOODING TYPE
RAINS WITH HIGHER RATES WILL BE DONE WITH BY 6 PM. IT WOULD BE MORE
OF RESIDUAL TYPE THING AS THERE IS DECENT FLOODING FROM THE METRO TO
THE NE CWA.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL HOLD ONTO HIGH POPS ALONG AND E OF I-55 WITH
LIKELY POPS BACK INTO THE DELTA. THERE WILL BE LINGER LIGHT/MOD RAIN
ACROSS THE E HALF WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT E THROUGH MID EVENING.
THE NW DELTA AREA AND ACROSS THE N 1/3 OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE
ADDITIONAL DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN MOVE OVER AS THE STRONG TROUGH
AXIS PUSHES E AND SQUEEZES OUT A FEW HUNDRETHS OF LIGHT PRECIP.

CLOUDS LOOK TO HAND TIGHT THROUGH MIDMORNING WED AND QUICKLY
DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY WED. FOR THE REST OF WED INTO FRI
AFTERNOON...THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY NW FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LOOK FOR CLEAR
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL. STAYING WITH
TEMPS...GUID VALUES LOOKED GOOD TONIGHT THROUGH THU AND HAVE
FOLLOWED.

FRI LOOKS TO BE A TAD ON THE WARM SIDE AND AS WAA DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING TROUGH WHICH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH ON SAT. THIS WILL
PROVIDE WARMER LOWS FRI MORNING THAN PREV ADVERTISED AND I HAVE ADJ
WARMER. AS FOR HIGHS FRI...I ALSO ADJ TEMPS UP TO FOLLOW THE TREND
AS 13-14C 925MB TEMPS MOVE IN.

OTHER FORECAST ADJ WERE TO INCREASE POPS ON SAT AS THERE LOOKS TO BE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CWA AND THAT SHOULD SQUEEZE
OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP THEN. 00Z GUID ONLY HAD 20% POPS AND THAT IS
RATHER LOW...I HAVE INCREASE THE NW HALF TO 40%.  /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL
MOST LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND RA WILL BEGIN TO COME
TO AN END FROM NW TO THE SE. EVEN THOUGH RAIN WILL COME TO AN END
ACROSS GLH/GWO THE EARLIEST A DECK OF LOW STRATUS WILL BE PERSISTENT
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO LIFT AROUND 9-10Z. A FEW
HRS LATER THE SAME WILL OCCUR ACROSS GTR/JAN. MEI AND HBG WILL SEE
RAIN COME AN END THE LATEST(AROUND 2-5Z) AND CIGS MAY ACTUALLY
IMPROVE FOR A SHORT WHILE BEFORE THAT DECK OF LOW STRATUS MOVES BACK
IN AROUND 8-10Z. VISBIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE
AFTN AND INTO THE EVN. BY 4-6Z EVERYONE SHOULD START TO IMPROVE WITH
ONLY MVFR VISBIES EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. GUSTY WINDS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT ONCE THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE WEST AND BY LATE
TOMORROW MORNING WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY
APPROACHING 20KTS. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       42  58  39  64 /  74   3   0   0
MERIDIAN      46  55  37  62 / 100   5   0   0
VICKSBURG     42  58  39  64 /  50   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   48  62  39  68 / 100   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       41  59  39  65 /  47   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    39  54  38  60 /  59   5   0   0
GREENWOOD     40  52  37  58 /  74   8   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ029>033-
     037>039-044>046-050>052-056>058.

LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

CME/CAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
610 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2009

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
080015-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
610 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

14

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
320 PM CST TUE JAN 06 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0319 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LOUISVILLE              33.12N 89.05W
01/06/2009                   WINSTON            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMBER OF ROADS ACROSS THE COUNTY HAVE WATER ACROSS THEM.
            HAVE HAD TO BARRICADE A COUPLE OF ROADS RECENTLY.

&&

AG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
328 PM CST TUE JAN 06 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0326 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MACON                   33.11N 88.56W
01/06/2009                   NOXUBEE            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSED ACROSS NOXUBEE COUNTY DUE TO WATER
            ACROSS THEM

&&

AG