River Flood Warning 125, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
825 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2009

...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EVENT UNDERWAY...

.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SHORT WAVE...WHICH
WAS AIDING THE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE REGION...
WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION. ON THE SURFACE A SLOW MOVING
WARM FRONT WAS PROGRESSING NORTH WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE.
MAXIMUM CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS OCCURRING IN THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE REGION. MODELS AND LOCAL WRF SHOWS THE STRONG OMEGA FIELDS
WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AREA RADARS CONTINUE TO PICK UP HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE ARKLAMISS. STILL GETTING REPORTS
OF FLOODING IN PORTIONS OF THE DELTA REGION. STARTING TO SEE THE
BACK EDGE OF THE LARGE MASS OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS TO NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA. SO WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM AND KEEP CURRENT
GRID HIGH POPS FOR THE NIGHT. CURRENT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NORTH
TO AROUND 70 SOUTH LOOK TO BE ON TRACK.

./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...336 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON THE
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING EVENT CURRENTLY UNFOLDING ACROSS THE NW/N
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SFC FEATURES REMAIN SIMILAR WITH THE INVERTED
SFC BOUNDARY STILL EXTENDING ACROSS THE NW PORTION AND THE MARINE
WARM FRONT ACROSS S MS WHICH IS A BIT FURTHER N THAN THIS MORNING.
MODELS SEEM TO HANDLING THIS WELL ALONG WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
MAIN PRECIP AREA. THE MAIN PLAYER IN HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE THROUGH
THIS EVENING IS THE EFFECTS OF MESOSCALE FEATURES. LATEST RADAR
TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING A BIT MORE OF A SE PUSH AS A VISIBLE BOUNDARY
HAS SURGED OUT OF THE RAIN AREA ACROSS N LA NEAR SHV. THIS COULD
HELP FOCUS THE MAIN PRECIP AXIS A TAD FURTHER S FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AS THINGS ARE COMING TOGETHER IN A CONFLUENCE AXIS
OVER N-CENTRAL...NE LA. THE CURRENT WATCH WILL BE CLOSE TO COVERING
THIS WITH THE PRIMARY HEAVY RAIN AXIS ALONG THE S/SE EDGE OF THE
WATCH. HOWEVER...WE MAY HAVE TO EXPAND THE WATCH A STRIP OF COUNTIES
TO THE S/SE INTO THE EVENING. THE AIRMASS REMAINS EXTREMELY MOIST
WITH 2.2 TO 2.4 IN PWATS. THE RAINFALL PRODUCTION WILL CONTINUE TO
BE VERY EFFICIENT AND WIDESPREAD 2-3 INCHES WILL BE COMMON. THAT
WILL CAUSE QUITE A BIT OF FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING ISSUES BUT IT WILL
BE THE LOCALIZED 4-6 INCH AMOUNTS THAT WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT
ISSUE. CONDITIONS ARE EXTREMELY SATURATED OVER THE NW 1/3 OF THE CWA
AND BASICALLY...THEY CAN NOT HANDLE ANYMORE WATER.

FOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...THINGS WILL EVOLVE SLOWLY WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP FALLING BETWEEN 5-10 PM. AFTER THAT...THINGS
SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD AS ASCENT WANES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS. A
SFC WAVE WILL ALSO PUSH EAST AS THIS OCCURS AND HELP DRAG SOUTHWARD
SOME COOLER AIR AND ALLOW FOR ANOTHER BOUNDARY TO STALL OVER THE CWA
FOR WED.

THE MAIN PRECIP FOR WED SHOULD BE WITH WHATS LEFT OVER FROM
OVERNIGHT. IM EXPECTING MOST OF WED TO BE MUCH LESS ACTIVE IN THE
PRECIP DEPARTMENT. WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND THE
AIRMASS/ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN THE RECOVERY PROCESS AND BEGINNING TO
RESPOND TO THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR THU.

BY THU...A POTENT WAVE WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF THE PLAINS IN A NW
FLOW REGIME. QUESTION MARKS EXIST ON WHERE THE OLD BOUNDARY WILL BE
LOCATED AND HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
FALL AND A SFC LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS ALONG THE OLD BOUNDARY. AT
THIS TIME...AREAS ALONG A LINE FROM VICKSBURG TO DEKALB AND POINTS
SOUTH SEEM TO GENERATE THE BEST COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/LIFT AND
SHEAR TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG/SVR STORMS THU AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT. DMG WINDS SEEM TO BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH THIS.

THU EVENING...FALL WILL ARRIVE AND LIKELY LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS FALL SEASON. CONTINUED
THE TREND OF GOING COOLER THAN THE EXTENDED GUID ON TEMPS. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CEILINGS...TO BRIEF LOCALIZED LIFR
CEILINGS...ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES FOR TONIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY AS BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUD DECKS VARY FROM 3000-500
FEET AT LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR...TO LOCALIZED
LIFR...VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AS AN AREA OF RAIN...WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...MOVES EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.  GOOD RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT WILL BEGIN
TO TAPPER OFF THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.  THIS...IN
ADDITION TO FOG DEVELOPMENT WHERE RAIN ISNT FALLING...WILL AGAIN
CAUSE PREVAILING MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES AT SITES WEDNESDAY MORNING.
/17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       68  79  64  78 /  99  72  13  72
MERIDIAN      68  81  64  79 /  99  76  16  73
VICKSBURG     67  78  64  76 / 100  72  12  71
HATTIESBURG   71  84  67  82 /  78  72  15  76
NATCHEZ       69  81  67  81 /  97  80  17  73
GREENVILLE    63  72  59  71 / 100  37  18  63
GREENWOOD     65  73  58  71 / 100  38  17  64

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>050-053.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>025.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
142 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2009

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-MSZ018-019-025>037-040>042-141845-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-ISSAQUENA-
SHARKEY-YAZOO-
142 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A FLOOD WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 4 TO 6 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 2 TO 4
INCHES OF RAIN WITHIN THE LAST 24 HOURS. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME AS SOIL CONDITIONS REMAIN SATURATED AND
QUICK RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL OCCURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

LAZ015-016-023>026-MSZ038-039-043>066-072>074-141845-
RICHLAND-MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-
WINSTON-NOXUBEE-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-
RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-
JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
142 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY. A
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
606 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SHAW                    33.60N 90.77W
10/13/2009                   BOLIVAR            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL RDS ARE FLOODED AROUND SHAW...BOYLE AND
            CLEVELAND.

&&

CME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
623 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2009

LAZ016-132355-
MADISON LA-
623 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER MADISON PARISH...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 12 MILES WEST OF TALLULAH AT 623 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

BLINDING RAINFALL ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL MADISON PARISH SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

EEC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
647 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HAMBURG                 33.23N 91.80W
10/13/2009                   ASHLEY             AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER IN ASHLEY
            COUNTY...THESE INCLUDE CR 16, CR 73, CR 17, AND CR 488.

&&

JALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
744 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     FLASH FLOOD      RAYVILLE                32.47N 91.76W
10/13/2009                   RICHLAND           LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SANDBAGGING CREW CURRENTLY WORKING ALONG MCCARSON DR.
            WHERE SEVERAL HOUSES BEING THREATEND BY HIGH WATER.

&&

JALLEN

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