Flash Flood Watch 22, NWS Jackson, MS

Ashley County, AR, Chicot County, AR, Catahoula Parish, LA, East Carroll Parish, LA, Franklin Parish, LA, Madison Parish, LA, Morehouse Parish, LA, Richland Parish, LA, Tensas Parish, LA, West Carroll Parish, LA, Attala County, MS, Bolivar County, MS, Carroll County, MS, Choctaw County, MS, Claiborne County, MS, Clay County, MS, Grenada County, MS, Hinds County, MS, Holmes County, MS, Humphreys County, MS, Issaquena County, MS, Kemper County, MS, Leake County, MS, Leflore County, MS, Lowndes County, MS, Madison County, MS, Montgomery County, MS, Neshoba County, MS, Noxubee County, MS, Oktibbeha County, MS, Rankin County, MS, Scott County, MS, Sharkey County, MS, Sunflower County, MS, Warren County, MS, Washington County, MS, Webster County, MS, Winston County, MS, Yazoo County, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
412 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2009

.SHORT TERM...RAINFALL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN TODAY.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX WILL
INCREASE TODAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION TO
PROVIDE UPPER SUPPORT. THE BOUNDARY STALLED NEAR THE COAST WILL ALSO
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN HIGH RAIN
CHANCES AREAS S OF INTERSTATE 20. INCREASED MAV POPS A BIT TODAY TO
PROVIDE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ISSUED A
FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR NWRN/NCNTRL ZONES IN
LIGHT OF INCREASING FLOW ACROSS THE BOUNDARY IN THAT VICINITY. THE
AIR MASS WILL BE A BIT MORE UNSTABLE TODAY AS WEAK CYCLOGENESIS
DEVELOPS ALONG THE NWRN BOUNDARY AND AS THE COASTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
INLAND. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS BUT
WILL ENHANCE LOCAL RAINFALL INTENSITIES. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT
NEWD OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. WILL SEE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BEGIN TO VEER MORE W/NWLY OVER NRN AREAS WED AFTERNOON...
RESULTING IN DECREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO WED NIGHT AS DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO NRN AREAS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE GFS/EURO/NAM CONTINUE TO
BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MAKE A
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND BEGINS TO MOVE EAST. THE GFS/NAM DEVELOP
THE SURFACE LOW AND MOVE IT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
ON THURSDAY WITH THE EURO BEING A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH
THE TRACK OF THE LOW. THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
WILL DICTATE THE AREA OF CONCERN FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. EITHER
WAY ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE ON THURSDAY WITH PWATS NEAR
2 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE GFS INDICATES GOOD INSTABILITY
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH ML CAPES OF 2000-2500
J/KG AND DECENT SHEAR. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY MAINLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR...BUT AGAIN THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. WILL
CONTINUE THE MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS IN THE HWO.

A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY ON FRIDAY BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR
MOVES IN DURING THE DAY WITH PWATS FALLING DOWN NEAR 0.5 INCH.
COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPILL SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS IS A LITTLE WARMER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS FOR SATURDAY MORNING AND IS ALSO WARMER THAN THE
EURO. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS AND GO WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WHICH IS BELOW GUIDANCE. BOTH
OF THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL MAINLY BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR.

SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE COOL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE THE LOW TO
MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA. GFS/EURO INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE
WINDS TO CUT OFF AND THIS COMBINED WITH H925 TEMPS RANGING FROM 3 TO
5C ACROSS THE AREA WILL MAKE FOR A COOL NIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
AGAIN BE COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOW
TO MID 40S IN THE SOUTH. MADE CUTS TO MEX GUIDANCE HIGHS AND LOWS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND LEANING A LITTLE TOWARDS THE COOLER EURO. THE
HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WARMER FLOW WILL
RETURN TO THE ARKLAMISS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA BY
TUESDAY AND SO WILL THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES./15/

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH BKN-OVC DECKS BELOW 500 FEET AT MANY LOCATIONS. OCNL VSBYS 3-5
MILES IN FOG...LOCALLY LOWER IN PATCHES OF DENSE FOG. CIGS/VSBY WILL
IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING BUT WIDESPREAD MVFR DECKS WILL CONTINUE.
RAIN AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE WEST AND S BY LATE
MORNING...SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. PERIODS
OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...DECREASING BY MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS
REDEVELOP TONIGHT WITH OCNL MVFR VSBYS IN FOG.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       79  69  77  61 /  96  94  72  26
MERIDIAN      78  67  78  62 /  97  93  77  23
VICKSBURG     78  67  78  61 /  98  96  73  34
HATTIESBURG   80  71  81  67 /  90  60  74  25
NATCHEZ       80  70  79  66 /  93  87  82  34
GREENVILLE    73  63  74  59 / 100 100  51  36
GREENWOOD     75  64  71  57 /  97 100  52  24

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     MSZ018-019-025>028-034>036-040>042.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     LAZ007>009.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     ARZ074-075.

&&

03/15

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