Flash Flood Watch 10, NWS Jackson, MS

Ashley County, AR, Chicot County, AR, Catahoula Parish, LA, Concordia Parish, LA, East Carroll Parish, LA, Franklin Parish, LA, Madison Parish, LA, Morehouse Parish, LA, Richland Parish, LA, Tensas Parish, LA, West Carroll Parish, LA, Adams County, MS, Bolivar County, MS, Carroll County, MS, Choctaw County, MS, Claiborne County, MS, Copiah County, MS, Franklin County, MS, Grenada County, MS, Hinds County, MS, Holmes County, MS, Humphreys County, MS, Issaquena County, MS, Jefferson County, MS, Leflore County, MS, Lincoln County, MS, Madison County, MS, Montgomery County, MS, Sharkey County, MS, Sunflower County, MS, Warren County, MS, Washington County, MS, Webster County, MS, Yazoo County, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
415 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. THIS
BOUNDARY WAS SUPPOSED TO BE THE FOCUS FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY...BUT ITS THE SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES IN THE PERSISTENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT IS
PROVIDING EARLY ACTION ON THE RADARS THIS MORNING. THE DISTURBANCE
THAT BROUGHT OUR SUNDAY EVENINGS COMPLEX WAS NOTED OVER WESTERN
GEORGIA. THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS MORNINGS
ACTIVITY WAS NOTED OVER THE DELTA AND FARTHER UPSTREAM ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WAS NOTED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AIDING DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF OUR CWFA PROVIDING A NORTH WIND TODAY AND
OUTFLOW FROM THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY...THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY
SLIDE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE 00Z JAN SOUNDING
HAD A PW OF 1.81 INCHES. THE DEEP MOISTURE AND GREATEST INSTABILITY
FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY SHIFT SOUTH
TO OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING THE WET
SOILS IN OUR NORTH...THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY AND ANOTHER POSSIBLE
COMPLEX LATER TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST...HAVE ISSUED ANOTHER FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY ROUGHLY FROM WINNSBORO LOUISIANA TO YAZOO CITY
TO EUPORA MISSISSIPPI. WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...QUITE A MAX TEMP
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE HELD IN
THE LOWER 70S NORTH AND IN THE MID 80S SOUTH. MOST OF THE CONVECTION
WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE AN MCS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE SURFACE HIGH TO
THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST TONIGHT AND HELP PRODUCE A
SOUTHEAST WIND TUESDAY. THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN RETURNING
NORTH AS A WEAK WARM FRONT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS
FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
CARRIED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF. /22/

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...RATHER ZONAL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE SEE A SHORTWAVE BEGIN TO DIP FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  THIS WILL BRING A BOUNDARY
TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NORTH OVER THE REGION SO THAT IT WILL NOT IMPACT
THE CWFA.  AS A RESULT THE AREA SHOULD BE RATHER QUIET ON WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE CWFA SHOULD BE PHASING OUT.
RETURN FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE CWFA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK. FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY IT LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA WILL SEE DIURNAL CONVECT EACH AFTERNOON...WITH
CONVECTION BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY SATURDAY WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA.

THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO MORE AMPLIFIED
IN NATURE. THIS WILL BRING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH TOWARD THE EASTERN
CONUS FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.  THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER
BOUNDARY TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.  THE BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME LOOKS AS IF IT WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE CWFA BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE REGION.  TIMING AND DETAILS WITH THIS BOUNDARY ARE
RATHER UNCERTAIN AS THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH GETTING THE
BOUNDARY OUT OF THE CWFA.  HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED WITH GUI FOR
NOW ON POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE. TOWARD THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP EXPECTED AS THE
BOUNDARY IS MOVING THROUGH THE CWFA.  OVERALL HAVE REMAINED
RELATIVELY CLOSE TO GUI FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED. /14/

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED A LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE COMPLEX THAT WENT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. RADARS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTH MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE THIS MORNING IN THE SOUTH AS THE STORMS SPREAD SOUTH.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER COMPLEX OF
STORMS BEGINS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       79  62  82  68 /  69  41  46  11
MERIDIAN      80  62  82  65 /  66  37  55  23
VICKSBURG     78  63  84  68 /  70  40  38   7
HATTIESBURG   86  66  86  68 /  60  28  40  17
NATCHEZ       81  64  84  68 /  61  29  21  11
GREENVILLE    72  61  79  67 /  73  36  54  17
GREENWOOD     72  59  79  67 /  70  35  57  25

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>029-
     032-034>036-040>042.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION: 22
LONG TERM: 14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1010 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2009

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025>039-112000-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-
HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
1010 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL BE LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

LAZ007>009-015-016-023-025-MSZ040>058-112000-
MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-
FRANKLIN LA-TENSAS-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-
NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-
1010 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF
THE INTERSTATE TWENTY CORRIDOR AND DAYTIME HEATING COMBINE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS FRONT SHOULD RETURN NORTHWARD ON
TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS CROSSING THE REGION HOWEVER...THE
PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

LAZ024-026-MSZ059>066-072>074-112000-
CATAHOULA-CONCORDIA-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
1010 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL END LATE THIS EVENING WITH QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE TWENTY CORRIDOR AND DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS FRONT SHOULD RETURN
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS CROSSING THE REGION
HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS TIME FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...ACTIVATION
IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1210 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0942 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 E LAUREL              31.69N 89.04W
05/10/2009                   JONES              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS LARGE TREES REPORTED DOWN. ONE MOBILE HOME HAD
            MAJOR DAMAGE. ONE HOME HAD MAJOR DAMAGE...AND POSSIBLY
            DESTROYED. ALL OF THIS OCCURRED AROUND THE TUCKERS
            CROSSING COMMUNITY.

&&

WESTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
140 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

ARZ074-LAZ007-110720-
ASHLEY AR-MOREHOUSE LA-
140 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER WESTERN ASHLEY COUNTY ARKANSAS...
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WEST CROSSETT AT
140 AM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN ASHLEY COUNTY...AND NORTHWESTERN MOREHOUSE
PARISH SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

MME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
203 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

MSZ034-035-041-110750-
WASHINGTON MS-HUMPHREYS MS-SHARKEY MS-
203 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY...
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HOLLANDALE AT 203
AM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN SHARKEY...SOUTHWESTERN HUMPHREYS AND SOUTHEASTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

MME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
239 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-MSZ034-040-110840-
ASHLEY AR-CHICOT AR-MOREHOUSE LA-WEST CARROLL LA-EAST CARROLL LA-
WASHINGTON MS-ISSAQUENA MS-
239 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHERN ASHLEY COUNTY ARKANSAS...
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER PARKDALE AT 239 AM CDT...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN ISSAQUENA...SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...SOUTHERN
CHICOT AND SOUTHEASTERN ASHLEY COUNTIES...AND NORTHERN EAST
CARROLL...NORTHERN WEST CARROLL AND NORTHEASTERN MOREHOUSE PARISHES
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

MME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
343 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-MSZ034-040-110945-
ASHLEY AR-CHICOT AR-MOREHOUSE LA-WEST CARROLL LA-EAST CARROLL LA-
WASHINGTON MS-ISSAQUENA MS-
343 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME
SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 3 MILES NORTH OF
GLEN ALLAN TO 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF BEEKMAN AT 343 AM CDT...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN ISSAQUENA...SOUTHERN WASHINGTON...SOUTHERN
CHICOT AND ASHLEY COUNTIES...AND NORTHERN EAST CARROLL...NORTHERN
WEST CARROLL AND NORTHERN MOREHOUSE PARISHES SHOULD MONITOR THESE
STORMS CLOSELY.

CAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
431 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

MSZ035-036-042-111030-
HOLMES MS-HUMPHREYS MS-YAZOO MS-
431 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2009

A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME
SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 5 MILES NORTHEAST
OF MIDNIGHT TO 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF EBENEZER AT 431 AM CDT...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN YAZOO...HUMPHREYS AND SOUTHERN HOLMES COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

CAW