Flash Flood Warning 64, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
507 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEMS JUST KEEP
ON COMING...WITH SEVERAL LINED UP TO THE NORTHWEST. THE NEXT STORM
COMPLEX WAS MOVING INTO THE CWA RIGHT ON TIME. MOST OF THE MODELS
WERE IN AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE CWA.
MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE WEST NEAR THE BOUNDARY
TODAY. EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS IN THE EAST THIS MORNING...WITH
ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS WEST. THE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE...DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
CWA FROM THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. BY EARLY EVENING...THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE TO THE SOUTH WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR. LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE
DRY ON WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE HANGING TO THE
SOUTH...SO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84 MAY SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY.

USED A MIX FOR THE TEMPERATURES. STARTED WITH THE NAM TODAY AND
LOWERED HIGHS IN A FEW LOCATIONS. KEPT THE AREA RIGHT AROUND 90.
CLOUDS WERE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD LIMIT WARMING
ACROSS THE REGION. WENT WITH MAV WEDNESDAY...WHERE VALUES WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S...LOWERED VALUES IN THE SOUTH WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP...MAINLY TO GO LOWER 90S.
SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH DAYS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S. ONLY TOOK 3-5 DEGREES OFF OF GUIDANCE TODAY. ALTHOUGH IT
WILL NOT BE AS HOT...HAVING A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
WITH THE BOUNDARY DRIFTING...COULD LEAD TO A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN. WILL MENTION IT IN THE HWO...IN ADDITION TO THE RETURN OF
THE HEAT WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...INTERESTING TIMES CONTINUE IN THE MED RANGE/LONG TERM.
OUR PESKY UPPER RIDGE WILL GIVE US ONE MORE BRIEF RUN AT BUILDING A
BIT ON WED AND THEN WE WILL SEE THIS FEATURE AMPLIFY AND RETROGRADE
BY FRI GIVING WAY TO A TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRI.
THIS TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS WELL AND BRING MUCH LOWER HGHTS TO THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALSO PUSH A DECENT COOL FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WHICH SEEMS TO BE POISED TO PUSH S OF THE CWA BY SAT AFTERNOON.
COOLER CONDITIONS LOOK TO FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR SUN-TUE.

FOR THU INTO FRI...THESE TWO DAYS LOOK TO OFFER THE BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS AND PRECIP AS WE WILL SEE THE SFC FRONT AND EVOLVING UPPER
TROUGH INTERACT WITH WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THU LOOKS
TO BE A HOT/HUMID DAY AS THE CWA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE THERMAL
TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC FRONT. IM EXPECTING A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS TO DEVELOP BY THU AFTERNOON WITH 3500-4000 J/KG OF SBCAPE.
LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP WITH 27-29 VERTICAL TOTALS WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR INCREASING BY LATE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL HGHTS BEGIN TO FALL.
BEST CHANCES FOR SVR STORMS WILL BE LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE N
HALF...BUT THE RISK WILL EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. TIMING SEEMS
TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN ADDITION...HEAT INDICES WILL
BE QUITE HIGH THU WITH 104-107 DEGREES EXPECTED. WE WILL LIKELY NEED
SOME KIND OF ADV THAT DAY.

BY FRI...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE GOOD...BUT WE APPEAR TO HAVE LOWER
INSTABILITY AS EARLIER RAINS AND CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE AN IMPACT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH AND THE DEEP LAYER ASCENT WILL
STRONGER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH LESS
PUNCH. GUID POPS WERE PRETTY GOOD AND ON THE HIGHER END SIMILAR TO
PREV RUNS. I DID MAKE SOME SMALL TWEAKS UPWARD FOR A SITE OR TWO TO
KEEP THE LIKELY POP AREA MORE UNIFORM.

FOR SAT INTO TUE...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EVOLVE AND DEEPEN OVER THE
REGION. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLUTION AND CARVE OUT
A ANOMALOUS TROUGH WITH MID LEVEL HGHTS REACHING SOME 2 TO 3.5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMO VALUES. IN ADDITION...SUCH A SYSTEM
WILL PULL DOWN COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND THE GFS/EURO ARE
ADVERTISING 850MB TEMPS IN THE 13-15C RANGE. THAT IS ALSO SOME 2 TO
3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMO VALUES. FITTING ENOUGH...THE 00Z
MEX GUID HAS 60-65 DEGREES FORECASTED FOR LOWS MON MORNING. I TOOK A
LOOK AND THE NUMBERS IT HAS WOULD SET A FEW RECORD LOWS. ONE THING I
HAVE LEARNED IS NOT TO FORECAST BELOW RECORD LOWS OUT IN THE
EXTENDED. SO...I HAVE TWEAKED SOME OF THE TEMPS MON MORNING UPWARD A
TAD. EITHER WAY...COOLER CONDITIONS LOOK TO DEVELOP SUN INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. IN AREAS
WHERE IT RAINED YESTERDAY...LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BRIEFLY.
OTHERWISE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST
LOCATIONS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR GLH/JAN AND GWO OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN VCTS SHRA AND ADD TEMPO GROUPS FOR
BRIEF WORSENING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES AFTER 3Z. MAY LEAVE VCTS IN
FOR HBG OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       90  73  97  75 /  51  22   7  14
MERIDIAN      87  71  96  73 /  36  17   7  20
VICKSBURG     92  76  97  76 /  53  25   7  14
HATTIESBURG   91  73  94  75 /  53  28  21  22
NATCHEZ       92  75  95  75 /  53  31  20  20
GREENVILLE    90  75  98  77 /  70  14   7   9
GREENWOOD     90  73  97  77 /  70  12   7   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

7/CME

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
333 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2009

MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-142045-
BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-
LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-
WINSTON-NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-
KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-
COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-
FORREST-
333 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. HOWEVER...HEAVY DOWNPOURS
MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
OTHER LOW LYING AREAS. FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED. OUR WARM MOIST AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TUESDAY AND COMBINE WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DROPPING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS AN UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIRMASS COMBINES WITH A SLOW
MOVING FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. PENNY TO QUARTER SIZED
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-142045-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-
333 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT
BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES EACH DAY. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK. AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY IF DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES CAN BE REACHED AND TOP 110
DEGREES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS AN UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIRMASS COMBINES WITH A SLOW
MOVING FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. PENNY TO QUARTER SIZED
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

22

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
414 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2009

MSZ019-140940-
SUNFLOWER MS-
414 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2009

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF INDIANOLA AT 414
AM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE AT ANY TIME.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN SUNFLOWER COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

CME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
435 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2009

ARZ075-MSZ018-019-034-141000-
CHICOT AR-BOLIVAR MS-SUNFLOWER MS-WASHINGTON MS-
435 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2009

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH
WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 4 MILES SOUTH OF BOYLE TO 8 MILES NORTH OF
LAKE VILLAGE AT 436 AM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN WASHINGTON...SOUTHERN SUNFLOWER...SOUTHERN BOLIVAR
AND NORTHEASTERN CHICOT COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

CME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
529 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2009

MSZ019-034-035-141055-
SUNFLOWER MS-WASHINGTON MS-HUMPHREYS MS-
529 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2009

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS
LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF INVERNESS AT 527 AM CDT...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING OVER THE
SAME LOCATIONS OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS AND LIKELY HAVE PRODUCED 2
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS. PONDING OF WATER IS LIKELY
OCCURRING ACROSS SOME AREAS. IF THESE HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER THE
SAME LOCATIONS THROUGH 6 AM...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL BE NEEDED.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN HUMPHREYS...NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND SOUTHERN
SUNFLOWER COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

CME