Flash Flood Warning 61, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WGUS74 KJAN 130144
FFSJAN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
844 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

MSC025-087-130200-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FF.W.0061.000000T0000Z-090613T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CLAY MS-LOWNDES MS-
844 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR LOWNDES AND
SOUTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTIES...

AT 835 PM...SCATTERED MOSTLY LIGHT RAINS CONTINUED OVER PORTIONS OF 
THE COUNTY MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. RADAR ESTIMATES OF 3 TO 5 INCHES 
OF RAIN OCCURRED SINCE 3 PM BETWEEN NEW HOPE...STEENS AND COLUMBUS. 
THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY AND THE 
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.


LAT...LON 3337 8832 3337 8864 3367 8866 3369 8848
      3367 8848 3368 8841 3370 8839 3372 8827

$$

40

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
440 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A LARGE BOWING COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS NOTED MOVING INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX JUST NORTH OF HIGHWAY
82. A FEW OF THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE BUT A
MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR AS THE COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS MARCHES EAST SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE COMPLEX MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR THIS
EVENING BUT STUBBORN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH HAS SUPPRESSED
CONVECTION AGAIN TODAY. THE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND/OR
SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWFA BY MIDNIGHT BUT IT WILL LIKELY LEAVE A
BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THAT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION SATURDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE SATURDAY WHILE THE MID LEVEL HIGH OVER MEXICO AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS RIDGES BACK TO THE NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. THIS
WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION AND LIMIT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA SATURDAY WHILE PULSE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY DURING THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. WL MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. AFTER ANOTHER
WARMER THAN NORMAL NIGHT TONIGHT... TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AGAIN
SATURDAY AND TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 90S. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON SUNDAY. THERE WAS VERY LITTLE SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND MAV TEMPS WERE GENERALLY
ACCEPTED. HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF OUR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE LINGERING BOUNDARIES AND OUR
WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES BEING
CARRIED IN THE NORTH. /22/

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER STORY IN THE
EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE EFFECT OF WEAK TRANSIENT WAVES ON A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BE PARKED OVER THE AREA. MODELS AGREE
THAT WEAK WAVES WILL OCCASIONALLY LIFT OVER THE NRN EDGES OF UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER NRN ZONES. THE MORE PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL
TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL N OF THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH
THE EURO REMAINS CONSISTENT IN MAINTAINING WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE
AS IT PARKS THE REMNANTS OF A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA. WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS AT OR ABOVE 588 DAM AND GENERALLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AT 850
MB WE WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE TO OVERCOME. ALTHOUGH THE
EURO POSTS THE STRONGEST RIDGING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...THE GFS SHIFTS THE RIDGE CENTER SLIGHTLY WWD BY MID WEEK
TO SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION. IF THE GFS
SOLUTION OCCURS THEN THE DOOR WILL OPEN FOR ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE TO
DROP THIS WAY TO HELP IN CONVECTION DURING AFTERNOON HEATING. WILL
FOLLOW AVERAGE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FOR NOW AND LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PCPN OVER ERN AND SRN ZONES FOR WED. GENERALLY FOLLOWED MOS
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE EXCEPTION ONCE AGAIN BEING
AFTERNOON HIGHS WHEN MOS APPEARS TO BE HITTING MID 90S A BIT TOO
FAST AND WIDESPREAD. LEFT MID 90S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR STRONGEST RIDGING. WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY OF MID 90S
FOR WEDNESDAY IF THE EURO PANS OUT AND THE GFS SOLUTION OF SHIFTING
THE RIDGE CENTER DOES NOT WORK OUT. /03/

&&

.AVIATION...A LARGE BOWING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR AND AFFECT TAF SITES FROM GLH-GWO-GTR THIS EVENING. WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 50KTS...LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. AFTER THE STORMS DISSIPATE OR SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER 09Z. IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVE RAIN IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 09Z AND
13Z. OTHERWISE MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. THE FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE SATURDAY MORNING AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY 14Z. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTH AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  92  72  93 /  22  18   6  25
MERIDIAN      71  92  71  94 /  25  25   6  24
VICKSBURG     72  93  73  93 /  23  17   7  20
HATTIESBURG   73  94  72  94 /   7  12   7  18
NATCHEZ       71  92  71  94 /   7  12   7  20
GREENVILLE    74  91  73  93 /  74  23  12  28
GREENWOOD     72  91  72  92 /  73  21   8  32

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM: 22
LONG TERM: 03
AVIATION: 17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
330 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-MSZ018-019-025>042-044>046-132030-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
330 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...AND PORTION NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. AN ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS AT MID AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST AND BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
OUTLOOK AREA.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
OVER AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR AS A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA INTERACTS
WITH THE WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

LAZ015-016-023>026-MSZ043-047>066-072>074-132030-
RICHLAND-MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-
MADISON MS-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-
COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-
FORREST-
330 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

22

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
515 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0447 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W DUNCAN              34.04N 90.78W
06/12/2009                   BOLIVAR            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 444.

&&

JCULIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
547 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

MSZ030-033-122255-
CLAY MS-OKTIBBEHA MS-
547 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF MULDROW AT 547 PM
CDT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN OKTIBBEHA AND CENTRAL CLAY COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

MRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
554 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0543 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N GRENADA             33.81N 89.81W
06/12/2009                   GRENADA            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN

&&

JCULIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
557 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

MSZ030-031-122330-
CLAY MS-LOWNDES MS-
557 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF WEST POINT AT 558 PM
CDT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL LOWNDES AND SOUTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

MRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
632 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0544 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GRENADA                 33.78N 89.81W
06/12/2009                   GRENADA            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ALONG RIVERDALE ROAD IN GRENADA

0601 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GRENADA                 33.78N 89.81W
06/12/2009                   GRENADA            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWERLINES DOWN ALONG MAYHEW STREET IN GRENADA

0611 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GORE SPRINGS            33.75N 89.62W
06/12/2009                   GRENADA            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWERLINES DOWN ALONG BETTERON ROAD IN GORE SPRINGS AS
            WELL AS KERSHAW STREET IN GRENADA.

&&

JCULIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
633 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0632 PM     HAIL             WEST POINT              33.61N 88.64W
06/12/2009  E0.75 INCH       CLAY               MS   PUBLIC

            CURRENTLY FALLING IN WEST POINT

&&

JCULIN