Flash Flood Warning 57, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WGUS74 KJAN 242139
FFSJAN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
439 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2009

MSC031-035-067-073-242147-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FF.W.0057.000000T0000Z-090524T2245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COVINGTON MS-JONES MS-FORREST MS-LAMAR MS-
439 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR LAMAR...FORREST...
JONES AND SOUTHEASTERN COVINGTON COUNTIES...

HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH WATERS
FROM PREVIOUS DOWNPOURS HAVE LIKELY SUBSIDED.


LAT...LON 3091 8933 3101 8935 3101 8941 3099 8946
      3102 8951 3100 8960 3103 8965 3143 8964
      3144 8958 3151 8959 3179 8940 3182 8894
      3144 8893 3142 8914 3092 8913

$$

BYB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1015 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2009

.UPDATE...LOCAL RADARS SHOW THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. CIRCULATION AROUND THIS LOW WILL MAINTAIN A FEED
OF WARM MOIST AIR ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. MORNING JAN SOUNDING SHOWED A DECENT CAP THAT WILL LIKELY
HOLD UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. HAVE REMOVED THUNDER WORDING UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN WAS HOLDING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN
EXPECTED OVER THE DELTA THIS MORNING. MINOR ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO
TEMPERATURE CURVE BUT AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS STILL LOOK ACHIEVABLE.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN POSTED. /22/

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PERSIST IN THE REGION...
MAINTAINING UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE ARKLAMISS AREA UNTIL IT GETS
ABSORBED BY WEAK WESTERLIES LATER IN THE WEEK. THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS
SLOWLY TO THE NW AS A SHORTWAVE PIVOTS ACROSS TX TODAY THEN ACROSS
THE NRN GULF AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN WEAK BUT
BROAD LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND
INCREASING VERTICAL VELOCITIES ACROSS THE REGION FOR WIDESPREAD
DAYTIME CONVECTION TODAY AND MONDAY...DIMINISHING DURING THE
EVENING. WILL SEE PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL DURING THE DAY AND
EARLY EVENING PERIODS BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK FOR THE AREA. AM
CONCERNED ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ENHANCED CONVECTION IN REMNANTS
OF SPIRAL-LIKE BANDS OF CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW CENTER NOTED S AND
E OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
HELICITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE THIS MORNING SO WILL HOLD
OFF ON MENTION OF SEVERE CONVECTION FOR TODAY FOR NOW. VERTICAL
TOTALS AND LAPSE RATES SUGGEST LIMITED VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT IN
GENERAL...LIMITING STRONG CONVECTION TODAY AND MONDAY. /03/

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING A STEADY STREAM OF MOIST GULF AIR INTO THE REGION. CLOUDS AND
RAIN WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL SUPPORT
THUNDER. THE SURFACE LOW FINALLY GETS SWEPT UP IN THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION/TROPICAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE
SEEMS TO BE A BOUNDARY STALLED ALONG THE COAST THAT WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AT LEAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...MAYBE A DAY EARLIER. THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN INTO THE CWA AROUND FRIDAY. THE GFS SUGGESTS
TWO BOUNDARIES WILL SWING THROUGH BACK TO BACK. THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION
WAS NOT TOTALLY DIFFERENT FOR THE EXTENDED...BUT THERE WAS NOT AS
MUCH RAINFALL. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A WEAK BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST
FROM WEDNESDAY GOING INTO FRIDAY. THE SURFACE FEATURES GETS PICKED UP
IN THE UPPER FLOW AND DEEPENS AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. IT
TRACKS ALONG A WARM FRONT AND THE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST...WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CWA AROUND SATURDAY. BOTH
MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST AND DRY AIR
SETTLING INTO THE CWA. THE EUROPEAN IS DRY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS
IS NOT. THE GFS IS SLOWER BRINGING THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY. MAINTAINED VERY LOW CHANCE POPS. THE MEX VALUES WERE AROUND
15 PERCENT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STUCK WITH GUIDANCE POPS AND
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
SEEMS SMALL. PW VALUES REMAIN ABOVE AN INCH THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE HWO CLEAR AT THIS TIME. /07/

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER
THE AREA AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
AS SHOWERS INCREASE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD DECKS WILL REMAIN
AROUND 1500-3000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON IN BKN TO OVC DECKS. THE
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BUT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE 500 TO 1000
FOOT RANGE. SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS ON
MONDAY WITH MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       80  67  83  67 /  76  43  67  47
MERIDIAN      81  68  83  66 /  71  44  61  44
VICKSBURG     80  67  83  68 /  79  42  69  45
HATTIESBURG   83  68  81  68 /  77  37  74  45
NATCHEZ       79  67  82  68 /  83  41  73  42
GREENVILLE    77  68  81  67 /  90  56  68  43
GREENWOOD     78  68  82  68 /  87  58  63  45

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

03/7

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
220 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2009

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
251930-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
220 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

15