Flash Flood Warning 186, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WGUS74 KJAN 151547
FFSJAN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
947 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

MSC031-035-065-067-073-091-151630-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.W.0186.000000T0000Z-091215T1630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COVINGTON MS-JONES MS-FORREST MS-LAMAR MS-MARION MS-
JEFFERSON DAVIS MS-
947 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 AM CST FOR
SOUTHERN JEFFERSON DAVIS...NORTHERN MARION...NORTHERN LAMAR...
NORTHERN FORREST...JONES AND COVINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 942 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
DETECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WARNING AREA. THE HEAVIEST 
RAINFALL WAS OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM LONE STAR OT 10 
MILES SOUTHWEST OF HATTIESBURG AND WAS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST 
AROUND 35 MPH. ESTIMATED RADAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF 
HALF AN INCH TO ONE INCH...HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST HOUR.

REPORTS FROM COVINGTON COUNTY INDICATE STANDING WATER ON SEVERAL 
ROADS ACROSS THE COUNTY.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SOCIETY
HILL...CARSON...LONE STAR...SANFORD...MILL CREEK...TUCKERS
CROSSING...MOSELLE...OVETT...SANDERSVILLE...LAUREL AND ELLISVILLE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF URBAN
AREAS...INCLUDING HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES. IN ADDITION
OTHER LOW LYING AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS INCLUDING SEWERS...
DITCHES AND CULVERTS MAY ALSO OVERFLOW.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS...STREAMS...COUNTY ROADS AND FARMLAND ALONG BANKS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS
MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8979 3139 8999 3140 8996 3147 8994
      3178 8962 3182 8892 3144 8892 3143 8912
      3128 8913

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
408 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL WORKS ITS WAY TO THE COAST
BY LUNCHTIME. ABUNDANT MOISTURE STILL EXISTS ALONG AND BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.6 INCHES FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-20. THIS COMBINED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL KICK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF THE
SHOWERS SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ONCE AGAIN LIKELY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL YESTERDAY...THUS
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN AFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG THE HIGHWAY
84 CORRIDOR.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE TONIGHT NOT ONLY
DRYING THINGS OUT...BUT WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES.

WENT WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE POPS FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 ONCE
AGAIN TODAY AS ALL OF THE MODELS ALONG WITH RADAR TRENDS INDICATE
PRECIPITATION OVER THESE AREAS THIS MORNING. STUCK PRETTY CLOSE FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT...BUT DID CUT
SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE HIGHS WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE HAS COME
IN A LITTLE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. AFTER LOOKING AT H925/H850
TEMPS AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS HAVE DECIDED TO CUT JUST A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BELOW OF GUIDANCE HIGHS./15/

.LONG TERM...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
NORTHWEST GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THIS FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THAT
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL REMAIN
CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS...THE WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE ARKLAMISS WILL
BE MINIMAL WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN (RAINFALL < .50 IN) FOR
LOCATIONS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THIS QPF SCENARIO IS
DEPICTED BY THE 03Z SREF/06Z NAM/00Z GFS...WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY
HEAVIER AND FARTHER NORTH. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF CUTTING GFS
MOS HIGHS FOR THURSDAY GIVEN THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE AIRMASS AND
EXPECTATION FOR ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

FRI NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

A MOSTLY DRY AND COLDER WEATHER REGIME IS FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS WEEK AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
LONGER RANGE PERIODS WITH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN NOW
IN GREAT AGREEMENT. AND THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS ENOUGH AGREEMENT SO THAT
WE HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE GFS FOR FORECAST DETAILS.

AMPLIFICATION OF THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN FAIRLY STRONG COLD ADVECTION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE HINTED THAT A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN COULD INDUCE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION AT SOME POINT FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE
COLDER AIR MOVING IN AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...BLUSTERY CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH A MIX OF SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
BE POSSIBLE...MOST LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
CHILLY AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATIC AVERAGE. THE FORECASTED PATTERN SUGGESTS THERE
COULD BE A DAY OR NIGHT WHICH HAVE COLDER TEMPERATURES...BUT THE
FORECAST DETAILS ARE TOO DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT THIS RANGE. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVING IN THAT WILL AFFECT
JAN/MEI AND HBG. DRYER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING SOUTH BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CEILINGS IMPROVING TO VFR FOR
GWO/GLH AND GTR BY MID AFTERNOON AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH AT GWO/GLH LATER THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 25 MPH POSSIBLE. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       52  36  57  36 /  40   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      56  33  56  35 /  54   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     51  36  54  36 /  35   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   59  37  60  39 /  97   9   0   0
NATCHEZ       51  37  54  40 /  84  10   0   0
GREENVILLE    49  32  51  33 /  13   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     51  32  54  33 /  15   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ052-054>066-
     072>074.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MSZ026-030-031-043-049-052.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ024-026.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LAZ009.

AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ARZ075.

&&

15/EC/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
455 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023-025-MSZ018-019-025>051-053-
161100-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-TENSAS-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-
CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-
WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-
SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-CLAIBORNE-
455 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

BRISK CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
LARGER OPEN BODIES OF WATER. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AREAS AWAY FROM THE
LARGER BODIES OF WATER SHOULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS BETWEEN
10 AND 20 MPH. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR A FEW COUNTIES
THAT CONTAIN THE LARGER LAKES SUCH AS CHICOT COUNTY...EAST CARROLL
PARISH...MADISON AND RANKIN COUNTIES...LAUDERDALE COUNTY AND LOWNDES
COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

LAZ024-026-MSZ052-054>066-072>074-161100-
CATAHOULA-CONCORDIA-LAUDERDALE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-
JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
455 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREAS MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE
COMBINES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-20. THE GROUNDS REMAIN SATURATED
FOR AREAS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR AND 1 TO 3 INCHES MORE IS
POSSIBLE OVER THESE SAME AREAS THIS MORNING SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IS IN AFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

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