Flash Flood Warning 149, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WGUS74 KJAN 242353
FFSJAN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
653 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

MSC007-019-250002-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FF.W.0149.000000T0000Z-090925T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHOCTAW MS-ATTALA MS-
653 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR NORTHEASTERN ATTALA
AND NORTHERN CHOCTAW COUNTIES...

THE HEAVY STORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED.


LAT...LON 3345 8940 3351 8925 3352 8913 3332 8921
      3325 8932 3325 8933 3326 8937 3329 8945

$$

MRM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
414 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS BEEN VERY LIMITED TODAY DESPITE SOME
HEATING...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND SOME CONVERGENCE DUE TO A STALLED
BOUNDARY. MOST OF THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE BOUNDARY OVER AROUND SHREVEPORT. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY HAS SLOWLY MOVED TO THE EAST. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE FINALLY DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS. GIVEN
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION THAT HAS BEEN ABLE TO SUPPRESS THIS
CONVECTION FOR MOST OF THE DAY....WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELLED
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. HOWEVER...WITH
THIS ACTIVITY...THERE COULD BE SOME QUICK AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT
DEVELOP. WITH SATURATED GROUNDS FROM THE RECENT RAINS...IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME PONDING OR LOCALIZED FLOODING TO
OCCUR...BUT THE THREAT IS NOT THAT HIGH TO WARRANT KEEPING THE FLOOD
WATCH UNTIL 00Z.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AS
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS CLOSE...GENERALLY ALONG THE RIVER. THE
NAM INDICATES THERE COULD BE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT THAT OCCURS
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z IN THE DELTA. BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN
DRY OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOIST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE AGAIN ON FRIDAY
BUT AGAIN COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE LESS ON FRIDAY THAN IT HAS BEEN IN
PREVIOUS DAYS. ANY SFC BOUNDARY THAT IS LEFT COULD BE A LITTLE
FURTHER TO THE EAST TO HELP WITH GENERATING SHOWERS. HOWEVER...850MB
FLOW INDICATES SOME ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT COULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION
EVEN THOUGH 500MB HEIGHTS WEAKEN OVER THE AREA AND MAY NOT BRING AS
MUCH SUBSIDENCE TO THE REGION.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY....IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THAT WILL BE THE
MAIN TIME FRAME FOR SHIFTING THE UPPER LOW EASTWARD AND THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST
FORCING STILL LOOKS TO BE EARLY RATHER THAN LATER IN THE DAY. GIVE
THIS...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND THEREFORE SVR POTENTIAL
CONTINUES TO LOOK LOW FOR THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN MS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND BEGIN TO CLEAR
ACROSS THE DELTA. GIVEN THE TREND IN THE MODELS AND LOOKING AT SREF
QPF PROBS...I CONTINUED THE TREND OF RAISING POPS AGAINST GUIDANCE
IN THE EAST FOR SATURDAY. LEFT SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN THE SOUTH
FOR EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ANY LINGERING PRECIP BUT EVERYTHING
LOOKS TO CLEAR OUT BY 12Z SUNDAY.

GENERALLY WENT WITH GUI FOR TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD. I DID RAISE IN THE
EAST FOR THE FIRST FEW NIGHT TIME PERIODS AS LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S
HAVE BEEN THE NORM. AFTER FROPA AND UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE...COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN AND THIS COULD BE FELT AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE DELTA WITH READINGS GETTING INTO THE
MID TO LOWER 60S.  HOPEFULLY THIS WILL BE THE START TO IT ACTUALLY
FEELING LIKE FALL ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS. /28/

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION ATTACHED...

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WELL IT LOOKS LIKE THE FAUCET WILL FINALLY
BE TURNED OFF FOR A WHILE IN THE EXTENDED. WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE ON SATURDAY WILL USHER IN DRYER AIR ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS ON
SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE. THE DRY WEATHER
WILL HANG AROUND FOR A WHILE ACROSS THE AREA WITH CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER/DRYER AIR ACROSS THE AREA AND WITH IT MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATES.

THE GFS/EURO ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE/UPPER RIDGING WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA WED-THUR WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BRING
ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE AREA LATE ON
THURSDAY...BUT THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO TEMP GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT DID CUT
SLIGHTLY BELOW POP GUIDANCE AS WE SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. /15/

&&

.AVIATION...WILL SEE BKN-OVC DECKS FROM 1500-3000 FEET NW OF A LINE
NEAR NATCHEZ TO COLUMBUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SCT-BKN LAYERS FROM 3-5K FEET ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED AND ONE OR TWO TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CIGS WILL LOWER
OVERNIGHT AND AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP. EXPECT WIDESPREAD CIGS
BETWEEN 500 AND 1500 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL DECKS BELOW
500 FEET. WILL ALSO SEE FREQUENT VSBYS FROM 3-5 MILES...LOCALLY
LOWER IN PATCHY DENSE FOG. FOG WILL CLEAR BY 15Z AT MOST LOCATIONS
AND CLOUD BASES WILL LIFT TO SCT-BKN DECKS FROM 1500-3000 FEET
DURING THE MORNING. CLOUD BASES WILL BE SCT-BKN 3-5K FEET DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. /03/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       69  84  69  83 /  39  50  43  59
MERIDIAN      70  87  70  84 /  34  55  48  70
VICKSBURG     70  82  65  85 /  40  43  37  39
HATTIESBURG   72  88  70  86 /  31  49  51  69
NATCHEZ       68  84  68  85 /  32  40  37  45
GREENVILLE    66  84  62  86 /  44  34  27  29
GREENWOOD     67  84  64  84 /  44  40  31  39

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

28/15/03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
301 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
252015-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
301 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF
THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY WILL EXPERIENCE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
RECEIVING HEAVY RAINFALL...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FLASH
FLOODING. THE COMBINATION OF VERY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND A
STALLED FRONT WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
EARLY SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND FLASH
FLOODING COULD BECOME A CONCERN.

A COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND BRING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. AFTER
SATURDAY...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE WIDESPREAD ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO
OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE
WEATHER OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
ANY REPORTS OF ANY FLOODING WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

COHEN