Flash Flood Warning 131, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WGUS74 KJAN 210109
FFSJAN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
809 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2009

MSC103-210215-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.W.0131.000000T0000Z-090921T0215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NOXUBEE MS-
809 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN NOXUBEE COUNTY...

AT 804 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
DETECT THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE ALABAMA 
BORDER BETWEEN BIGBEE VALLEY AND PRAIRIE POINT. THE STORMS WERE 
DRIFTING NORTHEAST AND WEAKENING  ESTIMATED RADAR RAINFALL 
AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF 5 INCHES...HAVE OCCURRED SINCE 600 PM JUST 
NORTH OF THE COMMUNITY OF AUBREY AND ALONG SANDYLAND ROAD.

HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD BE DIMINISHING THROUGH 830 PM WITH RUNOFF  
CONTINUING THROUGH 900 PM OVER THE WARNED AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES AND MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.
THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY.
FIND AN ALTERNATE ROUTE AND MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

CONTACT LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND THEY WILL RELAY FLOODING REPORTS TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN JACKSON.

&&

LAT...LON 3304 8833 3308 8842 3329 8841 3329 8830

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
255 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2009

.SHORT TERM...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO CLOSE OFF A LOW OVER THE
MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE
ARKLAMISS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH
FOR THE MOST PART LATE THIS EVENING...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH PWATS UP NEAR 2 INCHES OVER THE AREA AND
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL
PREVAIL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST MUCH LIKE
TODAY. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY WITH PWATS ONCE
AGAIN AROUND 2 INCHES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES
CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AS AT LEAST MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. CUT BELOW AFTERNOON GUIDANCE HIGHS A BIT ALSO DUE
TO ALL OF THE CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. GFS GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN PERSISTENTLY LOW WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...SO
WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 70S
ACROSS THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...SO WILL ATTACH THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION./15/

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM...STRONG CUT-OFF UPPER LOW SHOULD BE DROPPING
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. MODEL CONSENSUS CONCERNING TRENDS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...AND IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH THIS UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY STALL AND HANG OUT IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE PHASING IN WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM BY
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. CONTRASTING WITH OUR LAST (AND VERY RECENT)
EXPERIENCE WITH MEANDERING UPPER LOWS...THIS ONE SHOULD STALL FAR
ENOUGH WEST TO KEEP A GREAT DEAL OF THE SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THAT FEATURE TO OUR WEST AS WELL. THE MAIN OPPORTUNITY FOR LIFT
ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS WILL PROBABLY NOT COME UNTIL THE MENTIONED
PHASING OCCURS AND KICKS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE DISTURBANCE THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE TIME-VICINITY OF NEXT WEEKEND.
THE TENTATIVELY EXPECTED PASSAGE OF THIS PIECE OF ENERGY COULD
FINALLY ALLOW FOR A DECENT (ALTHOUGH DELAYED) COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT IM NOT COUNTING MY CHICKENS ON THAT ONE YET.

BECAUSE THE CUT-OFF LOW MAY STALL IN A POSITION SO FAR REMOVED FROM
OUR REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...JUDGING ITS IMPACTS IS A
LITTLE TRICKY SINCE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A QUASI BERMUDA HIGH
WILL BE ENCROACHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE ARKLAMISS AS A WHOLE
SHOULD STILL EXPERIENCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD SINCE THE SOUPY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE. THE POTENTIAL FOR NON-DIURNAL (MORNING AND OVERNIGHT)
CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY BE HIGHEST IN WESTERN ZONES (PARTICULARLY
THE NW ARKLAMISS DELTA) SINCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/ADVECTION AXIS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
IMPACT THE NW SECTION OF MY CWA. IT IS THESE NORTHWEST AREAS WHERE
THE RISK OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL
BE GREATEST. HOWEVER...IM STILL GOING TO LEAVE MENTION OF THIS
PERIOD OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW SINCE THE DEPICTED AXIS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE.

AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY...I MADE VERY FEW CHANGES FROM MEX GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE
RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT SATURDAY WITH CHANCES OF
RAIN CONTINUING TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. I WAS A
LITTLE CONCERNED 00Z MEX POPS WERE TOO HIGH FOR SOME PERIODS BASED
ON THE PROSPECT OF ONLY MEAGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHING THIS WEEK. I DID CUT 60 TO 80 POPS DOWN 10 POINTS IN
MANY SPOTS TUESDAY WITH THIS IN MIND. I ALSO TRIMMED 10 POINTS OFF
POPS IN SOME EASTERN PORTIONS OF MS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SINCE THE
SUBSIDENT EFFECTS OF THE PROBABLE DEEP SOUTH RIDGE WILL BE
STRONGEST THERE. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION....AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A BOUNDARY
THAT WAS NEAR A GWO TO MLU LINE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT A LITTLE
FARTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI DURING THE EVENING. CONVECTION
MAY LINGER EAST OF THE LINE THROUGH 03Z BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 03Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AFTER TSTMS DIE AND LAST THROUGH 06Z. MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL DEVELOP BY 09Z AND LOWER TO IFR CONDITIONS
BY 11Z. THE SREF INDICATES THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR
FOG/STRATUS WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST FROM GWO TO GTR. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY MORNING AND ALL SITES SHOULD
OBSERVE VFR CONDITIONS BY 16Z. DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       73  85  72  86 /  21  76  42  70
MERIDIAN      72  86  71  87 /  32  67  51  71
VICKSBURG     71  86  71  87 /  18  65  35  76
HATTIESBURG   71  88  72  87 /  23  71  40  70
NATCHEZ       72  87  72  87 /  26  57  31  74
GREENVILLE    72  86  72  86 /  16  62  35  78
GREENWOOD     72  86  71  86 /  19  68  38  78

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

15/22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
222 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2009

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
211930-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
222 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

22

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
447 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2009

LAZ016-025-MSZ047-202245-
TENSAS LA-WARREN MS-MADISON LA-
447 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2009

...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING PASSING THROUGH VICKSBURG TO
SOMERSET AREAS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH 6 PM...

A CLUSTER OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS UP TO ONE INCH AND THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30 MPH WAS LOCATED 4
MILES SOUTHEAST OF AFTON AT 444 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HEAVY RAINS ALONG WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL AFFECT
AREAS INCLUDING MOUND AND VICKSBURG WITH PONDING OF WATER IN LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS THROUGH 6 PM.

PEOPLE IN WARREN COUNTY...AND SOUTHEASTERN MADISON AND NORTHEASTERN
TENSAS PARISHES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

40