Flash Flood Warning 116, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WGUS74 KJAN 170345
FFSJAN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1045 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2009

MSC015-043-170355-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FF.W.0116.000000T0000Z-090917T0445Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GRENADA MS-CARROLL MS-
1045 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR NORTH CENTRAL
CARROLL AND GRENADA COUNTIES...

RAINFALL HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. 

LAT...LON 3389 8976 3388 8976 3388 8964 3387 8963
      3387 8951 3368 8950 3367 8953 3368 8979
      3356 8979 3356 8993 3390 8993

$$

JC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
928 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2009

.DISCUSSION...ONLY SMALL TWEAKS MADE TO FORECAST PACKAGE. SCATTERED
CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH THE END TO DAYTIME
HEATING SERVED TO REDUCE COVERAGE. WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE NIGHTTIME SINCE BANDS OF SHOWERS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE FETCH OF DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
ALSO INCREASED MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO. CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH PRECIP WILL HELP KEEP LOWS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FORECAST. THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2009 TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...DECENT RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL MOVE
SOUTH TONIGHT AND THEN BACK TO THE EAST THURSDAY. MODELS AGREE THAT
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT
ACROSS OUR CWA FRIDAY WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LINGERS OVER
OUR EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA PARISHES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR TONIGHT...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTH. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 AND
SEE A MARKED DECREASE AFTER SUNSET ALTHOUGH THERE WILL REMAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT. WL MAINTAIN OUR FLASH
FLOOD WATCH OVER THE DELTA REGION WHERE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINS
LOW BUT CHANCES FOR ANY ORGANIZED ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY. GUIDANCE CAME IN A LITTLE LOW FOR OVERNIGHT
MIN TEMPERATURES CONSIDERING LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW. MOST SITES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 70S AGAIN THURSDAY
MORNING.

DESPITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUING TO SHOW DRY AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW AND OVER OUR CWA...PWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN
1.75 AND 2 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE BACK OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA
DURING PEAK HEATING THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GREATER COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA. GREATEST MLCAPES TO PERHAPS 1500J/KG
ARE EXPECTED IN OUR EAST BUT WITH CONTINUED MEAGER LAPSE RATES AND
WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM BUT WL ONLY CARRY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SAME
DELTA AREA THAT HAS RECEIVED RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.
AGAIN...CONVECTION WILL DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
THURSDAY EVENING AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA. OVER NIGHT LOWS SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER 70S AND
HAVE GONE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE THURSDAY NIGHT. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WITH HIGHER POPS FRIDAY. WL STILL REMAIN
UNDER THE SAME WARM MOIST AIRMASS AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
ACROSS OUR CWA WHILE THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
MODELS HINT AT AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES FRIDAY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR A CONTINUATION OF
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER OUR DELTA REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NAM
WAS A LITTLE TOO FAR WEST WITH THE SURFACE LOW FRIDAY NIGHT. LEANED
TOWARD GFS/ECMWF AND KEPT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.
/22/

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...THE PESKY UPPER LOW
AND SURFACE LOW FINALLY LOOK TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES WILL LESSEN A
BIT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE WARM HUMID
CONDITIONS PERSIST.

AS WE START INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION AND TOWARD THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SWING EAST
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FORCING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME. BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...AND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AS NORTHERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION FILTERING IN A COOLER
DRIER AIRMASS. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...WILL SEE SCATTERED SHWR/ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
EVENING. CIGS/VIS WILL GRADUALLY TREND TOWARD WIDESPREAD MVFR
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LATEST SREF GUID SUGGESTS IFR CIGS/VIS BREAKING
OUT ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE IFR CONDS THAT OCCURRED THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDS WILL RETURN 13-15Z WITH MORE SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY
TOMORROW AFTN. /BK/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MSZ018-019-025-
     026-034-035-040-041.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

SHORT TERM: 22
LONG TERM: 19
AVIATION: BK
03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
358 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2009

LAZ024>026-MSZ027>033-036>039-042>066-072>074-172100-
CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-
LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-YAZOO-
MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-
ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
358 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND EAST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI...ESPECIALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 59...THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES AND GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 40 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK IN STRONGER STORMS...AND HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF DIMES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS IS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT WHERE
STORMS PERSIST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME RISK FOR FLOODING...MAINLY WEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY.
OTHERWISE...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW
AT THIS TIME SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023-MSZ018-019-025-026-034-035-040-
041-172100-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-
WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-
358 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER NEARLY
SATURATED SOILS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RUNOFF PROBLEMS. FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AND RESIDENTS
SHOULD BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED OR
FLOODING IS OBSERVED. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA AS
THE RAINS OCCUR. OTHERWISE...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS LOW FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

22

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
456 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2009

MSZ031-039-162225-
LOWNDES MS-NOXUBEE MS-
456 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2009

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 2 MILES NORTHWEST OF PRAIRIE POINT AT
456 PM CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN NOXUBEE AND SOUTHERN LOWNDES COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

JC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
731 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     FLASH FLOOD      RAWLS SPRINGS           31.38N 89.37W
09/16/2009                   FORREST            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL STREETS WERE UNDER WATER IN RAWLS SPRINGS.

0710 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SUMRALL                 31.42N 89.55W
09/16/2009                   LAMAR              MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FLOODING REPORTED ON STREETS NEAR CITY HALL.

&&

HAMRICK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
809 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0809 PM     FLASH FLOOD      GRENADA                 33.78N 89.81W
09/16/2009                   GRENADA            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STREET FLOODING IN THE CITY OF GRENADA

&&

JCULIN