Small Craft Advisory 12, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
738 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...

COLD AND WINDY BUT DRIER IN THE NEAR TERM AS STRONG SFC RIDGING
TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION BRINGING A WELCOME DRY SPELL. STRONG WINDS
WILL BE THE IMMEDIATE IMPACT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS MORNING
BEHIND EXITING SFC BNDRY.  NAM/GFS BUFR PROGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS THROUGH MIDDAY WITH ABV SFC WINDS PEAKING
NEAR 65KT AT H85 AND 45KT AT H925 AROUND 10Z-12Z AND WANING BEYOND.
UPSTREAM OBS INDICATING THIS IS TRANSFERRING TO GROUND LEVEL QUITE
WELL WITH WIDESPREAD 35KT REPORTS AND ISOLATED GUSTS OVER 40KTS. 00Z
NAM/GFS PROGS DECREASED WINDS IN SOUTHERN ZONES AS PRES GRADIENT
RELAXES MODESTLY IN THAT DIRECTION...HWVR WILL NOT MAKE ANY SERIOUS
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT BASED ON CURRENT OBS WITH GUSTS OVER 30KTS
ALREADY OCCURRING AND HIGHER VALUES UPSTREAM.

TEMPS TODAY TO BE A MAJOR STEP DOWN FROM RECENT DAYS AS COLD AIRMASS
QUICKLY FILTERS IN THIS MORNING.  UPR 20S ALREADY IN NORTHERN
ILLINOIS WITH A 20 DEGREE FALL AT KSBN IN THE PAST 3 HOURS
INDICATIVE OF STRONG CAA UNDERWAY.   LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A DIURNAL
TREND TODAY AND HAVE KEPT TEMPS NEAR COLDER MET GUIDANCE WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT RECOVERY OFF MORNING LOWS EVEN WITH STRONGER MARCH INSOLATION
UNDER CLEARING SKIES.

RIDGING KEEPS A FIRM HOLD ON THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
COUPLE OF COLD NIGHTS ON TAP.  RETAINED LOWS BELOW GUIDANCE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AS LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM...

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING
BACK TO NEAR CLIMO BY SUN AS SFC RIDGING MOVES EAST.  MAJOR
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 00Z GFS AND 12Z/00Z ECMWF THROUGH SUNDAY REVOLVE
AROUND RELATIVE STRENGTH OF MID LVL TROF WITH THE DEEPER ECMWF CLOSING
OFF H5 LOW AND RETURNING MOISTURE TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
00Z GFS MUCH WARMER THAN ITS 12Z RUN WITH WEAKER MID LEVEL TROF AND
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH.  WILL SIDE WITH
THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF AND MAINTAIN EXISTING POPS
AS-IS FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH WEEKEND TEMPS NEAR 50.   MUCH
DISCREPANCY BEYOND SUNDAY WITH REGARD TO LONGWAVE PATTERN AND WILL
KEEP CURRENT DRY FCST WITH TEMPS NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TAF SITES THROUGH
MIDDAY BEFORE RELAXING AND TURNING MORE NORTHWESTERLY AT END OF PD.
IMPROVEMENT OF MVFR CIGS TO VFR IS ANTICIPATED AFTER 15Z WITH COLD
AIR OVER LAKE MICHIGAN CONTRIBUTING TO CONTINUED BKN VFR CIG IN NW
INCL KSBN THIS MORNING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY FOR INZ003>009-
     012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-015-
     016-024-025.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

SHORT TERM...LUD
LONG TERM...LUD
AVIATION...LUD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
505 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2009

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-120915-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
505 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2009 /405 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MODERATE TO MAJOR RIVER FLOODING IS ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH NO MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY...SOME ROADS ARE CLOSED
DUE TO HIGH WATER AND RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE TO EXACERBATE
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TODAY. FLOODING
ON RIVERS IN THE AREA SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...HOWEVER SOME RIVERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN FLOODED THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-120915-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
505 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING. HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/PROGRAMAREAS/MARINE/INDEX.PHP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
724 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0721 AM     FLOOD            2 SW NORTH WEBSTER      41.30N  85.72W
03/11/2009                   KOSCIUSKO          IN   NWS EMPLOYEE

            FLOODING REPORTED ON COUNTY ROAD 675...WITH DEBRIS ON
            THE ROAD FROM FAST FLOWING WATER OFF FLOODED FIELD.
            TOTAL MARCH 10 RAINFALL...2.81 INCHES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0902532

MCS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
837 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0829 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 S WARSAW              41.21N  85.85W
03/11/2009  M3.74 INCH       KOSCIUSKO          IN   NWS EMPLOYEE

            RECENT EVENT TOTAL...6.94 INCHES SINCE SAT
            MORNING...NUMEROUS FLOODED YARDS WITH WATER ACROSS ROADS
            AT SOME LOCATIONS

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0902533

JC

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