Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
745 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

.AVIATION/UPDATE...
DEEPENING LOW OVER MN WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM IKK-ILN MOVG NE
THIS EVE. SHRTWV MOVG NE ALONG FRONT ACROSS IL HAS RESULTED IN BKN
LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVG INTO NWRN INDIANA, WHILE SCT STORMS HAVE
FORMED ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT OVER NE INDIANA AND NW OH. FRONT
EXPECTED TO LIFT NE ACROSS NRN INDIANA THIS EVE CAUSING TSRA AT BOTH
TERMINALS. NOT MUCH UPSTREAM BEHIND WARM FRONT ATTM, SO JUST FCST
VCSH AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE THIS EVE. CDFNT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THU PRECEDED BY
PRE-FRONTAL TROF...WITH SHRA/TSRA AND MVFR CONDITIONS PSBL WITH BOTH
FEATURES.

AS FOR PUBLIC PRODUCTS...GIVEN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION APCHG WRN
PORTION OF CWA LATE THIS AFTN...ACCOMPANIED BY DESTABILIZATION AS
WARM FRONT PUSHES NE AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...INCREASED POPS
FOR THE EVE HOURS AND ADDED SVR MENTION TO GRIDS/ZFP ON EARLIER
UPDATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...

ANOMALOUS LATE SUMMER UPPER LOW STILL EXPECTED TO DROP INTO NORTHERN
PLAINS AND SLIDE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE PERIOD.
STRONG SHORT WAVE COMING OUT OF SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO
GENERATE MCS WHICH WILL MOVE INTO GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. CHALLENGE
IS WITH WHERE MCS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE TO THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO DICTATE IF AND WHERE ANY
CONVECTION FIRES ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF MAIN COLD FRONT.

WEAK FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH OUR AREA ON MONDAY IS RETURNING NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF
STRONG PLAINS SHORT WAVE. INITIAL MCV NOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST
MISSOURI IS SITUATED NEAR WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN IL THIS EVENING. WARM FRONT
WILL ALSO BE LIFTING NORTH INTO OUR AREA WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
JET EARLY THIS EVENING. 30 TO 40 KNOTS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THIS
BOUNDARY THIS EVENING AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG THETA E
ADVECTION OVER TOP FRONT WITHIN THIS LOW LEVEL JET. ATMOSPHERE SOUTH
OF FRONT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE UNSTABLE. REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWING SCATTERED TSRA ALREADY ALONG BOUNDARY IN MOIST ASCENT
REGION AND TRYING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. EXPECT SCATTERED TSRA
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING
WITH THESE FEATURES.

A BRIEF LULL IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
PERIODS BEFORE MAIN SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY COMING INTO SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI APPROACHES. HOWEVER...NAM12 SHOWING STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
PERSISTING WITH UNSTABLE...HIGH THETA E AIR IN PLACE DURING THE
ENTIRE NIGHT. THIS COULD KEEP SCATTERED TSRA GOING SO WILL NOT TRY
AND TIME A LULL BUT KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SIMPLICITY. NAM AND GFS
DIVERGE ON HOW THIS SECOND SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE...WITH NAM MOVING IN
MORE TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AREA WHILE GFS SLIDES IT
MORE TO EAST ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH. BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
CONSISTENT IN THEIR DEPICTIONS LAST SEVERAL RUNS BUT NAM MAKES MORE
SENSE WITH REGARDS TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE
TILTED UPPER SYSTEM. 00Z ECMWF ALSO SIDING TOWARD NAM SOLUTION.
ESSENTIALLY THIS BOILS DOWN TO HOW HIGH OF A POP TO GO WITH LATE
TONIGHT AND WHERE. WILL SIDE TOWARD CATEGORICAL NORTHWEST AND TAPER
TO HIGH CHANCE SOUTHEAST. WILL INCREASE SOUTHEAST TO LIKELY ON
THURSDAY WITH MAIN FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS.

SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
WE RECOVER ON THURSDAY FOR MAIN SURFACE FRONT. SHEAR VALUES REMAIN
HIGH WITH UNSTABLE AIRMASS SO STRONG STORMS AND ISOLATED SEVERE
STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARD SUNRISE WITH MAIN SHORT
WAVE AS NAM12 SHOWS 55 KNOT LLJ INTO NORTHWEST AREA. AMOUNT OF
MORNING RAIN AND CLOUD DEBRIS WILL BE KEY TO HOW UNSTABLE WE GET IN
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF MAIN COLD FRONT. PLAN TO KEEP LIKELY POPS AND
KEEP SEVERE MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW.

LONG TERM...
COOLER DAYS FRI/SAT WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS PRIMARILY FRI AFTERNOON WITH COLD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF
PUSHING THROUGH. LEFT CHC POPS IN FOR PRE-AFT HOURS AS A HEDGE
AGAINST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING STEEP LLEVEL LAPSE RATES AS EARLY
AS 14Z FUELED BY H85 TEMPS FALLING TO 8C. ADDNL AID DURING AFTERNOON
WITH MID LEVEL TROF OVERHEAD FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS DIMINISHING IN THE
EVE WITH LOSS OF HEATING.  SOME DOUBT AS TO A TOTALLY DRY SATURDAY
IN THE EAST WITH MID LEVEL TROF AXIS NOT PUSHING THROUGH UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON BUT FEELING AT THIS TIME IS ANYTHING THAT WOULD POP UP
WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED...AND NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH CHANCE TO
WARRANT A POP AT THIS TIME.  SAT TEMPS COULD BE QUITE COOL WITH
MIXING NOT EXPECTED TO REACH H85 AND H925 TEMPS AT ONLY 12C PLUS
EARLY FORMING CU DECK HELPING SQUASH AUGUST INSOLATION.  BACKED
HIGHS DOWN A TOUCH WITHIN LOW-MID 70S RANGE

THEREAFTER A STEADY MODERATION BACK TO TEMPS JUST ABOVE CLIMO IN THE
LOW 80S BY END OF PD AS RIDGE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS EDGES EAST...ONLY
TO BE DEFEATED BY YET ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
AT END OF PD. WITH A TROPICAL SYSTEM CURVING UP THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND...SUSPECT EVERYTHING UPSTREAM WILL GET BOGGED DOWN A BIT.
COMBINED WITH POOR MODEL CONSISTENCY DECIDED TO KEEP DAY 7 DRY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...LUDINGTON
AVIATION/UPDATE...JT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
545 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-202145-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
545 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009 /445 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME
OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-202145-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
545 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/PROGRAMAREAS/MARINE/INDEX.PHP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
804 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

OHZ001-002-004-005-200100-
DEFIANCE OH-FULTON OH-HENRY OH-WILLIAMS OH-
804 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

AT 804 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BRYAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  BRYAN...
  ARCHBOLD...
  STRYKER...
  WEST UNITY...
  FAYETTE...
  NEY...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 90 IN OHIO BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 17 AND
37.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT THURSDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO.

LAT...LON 4157 8407 4134 8451 4145 8469 4171 8435
      4171 8421
TIME...MOT...LOC 0004Z 234DEG 20KT 4143 8460

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
811 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0809 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LOGANSPORT              40.75N  86.36W
08/19/2009                   CASS               IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN AND POWER OUTAGES ACROSS THE COUNTY

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0900070

SAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
816 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

INZ003-MIZ077-200115-
BERRIEN MI-LA PORTE IN-
716 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

AT 716 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 22 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MICHIGAN CITY...OR NEAR
SOUTH HAVEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  TRAIL CREEK AND MICHIGAN CITY...
  LONG BEACH...
  OTIS...
  WATERFORD AND PINOLA...
  POTTAWATTOMIE PARK...
  MICHIANA SHORES...GRAND BEACH AND MICHIANA...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 90 IN INDIANA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 38 AND
54.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 94 IN INDIANA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 33 AND
45.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 94 IN MICHIGAN BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 1.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT THURSDAY
MORNING/100 AM EDT THURSDAY MORNING/ FOR NORTHERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO.

LAT...LON 4173 8692 4175 8689 4176 8684 4180 8680
      4181 8677 4167 8662 4154 8694 4172 8695
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 233DEG 28KT 4151 8720

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
829 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0754 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NW DUNKIRK            40.79N  86.43W
08/19/2009  E60 MPH          CASS               IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE LIMBS DOWN UP TO 15 INCHES IN DIAMETER...ESTIMATED
            60 MPH WINDS

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0900071

BJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
834 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0832 PM     TSTM WND GST     WABASH                  40.80N  85.82W
08/19/2009  E60 MPH          WABASH             IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ESTIMATED 60MPH OR GREATER

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0900072

SAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
849 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

INZ004-MIZ077-078-200145-
BERRIEN MI-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH IN-
849 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

AT 848 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR EDWARDSBURG...OR NEAR NILES...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  DOWAGIAC...
  CASSOPOLIS...
  EAGLE LAKE...
  SUMNERVILLE...
  DAILEY AND POKAGON...
  DIAMOND LAKE...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 90 IN INDIANA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 82 AND
85.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT THURSDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO.

LAT...LON 4199 8586 4176 8606 4176 8607 4175 8607
      4170 8611 4179 8632 4208 8614 4208 8609
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 209DEG 17KT 4182 8616