Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
439 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2009

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

VERY BUSY SHORT TERM FORECAST AS MAJOR QUESTION IS HOW MUCH RAIN WE
TACK ONTO ALREADY IMPRESSIVE TOTALS OF UP TO AND OVER 6 INCHES AT
SOME LOCALES. THOUGH THE GROUND HAS BEEN ABLE TO ABSORB A
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF WATER...THE RAPID RAIN RATES TODAY HAVE
RESULTED IN SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CWA. AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER MO MOVES NORTHEAST
PLACEMENT/TIMING/DURATION/INTENSITY OF SAID CONVECTION BECOME
PARAMOUNT AS MUCH MORE RAINFALL OVER CERTAIN LOCATIONS WOULD BE
QUITE PROBLEMATIC.

SCATTERED CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING WITH MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES IN A
LOW SHEAR/LOW FLOW ENVIRONMENT KICKING OFF STORMS HERE THERE AND
EVERYWHERE AMONGST 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE IN A RECOVERING BOUNDARY
LAYER. EXPECT THIS SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO CONTINUE WITH
COVERAGE A LITTLE INCREASED IN ERN TIER OF INDIANA AND ALL OF OHIO
COUNTIES AND USED NUMEROUS WORDING TO DESCRIBE THERE.

NEXT CONCERN WILL BE WITH CONVECTION UPSTREAM MOVING THROUGH WRN
ILLINOIS ATTM.  ANOTHER WEAK UPR WAVE DRIVING THIS CONVECTION
PROGGED BY MODELS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA A LITTLE AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE NAM AFTER IT WAS THE ONLY MODEL IN THE ENTIRE
SUITE TO PICK UP ON FOCUSING HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER CWA TODAY.
THIS SAID...HAVE BUMPED OVERNIGHT POPS UP TO LIKELY IN THE SE CWA
WHILE SLIGHTLY TRIMMING THEM IN THE NW AS WAVE LOOKS TO EJECT INTO
CEN/ERN CWA.  NAM CERTAINLY SHOWING A MORE IMPRESSIVE LLJ TONIGHT
THAN LAST NIGHT WITH REGION ALSO BEING BRUSHED BY RIGHT REAR QUAD OF
FAIRLY POTENT H25 JET.  WITH PWATS STILL AOA 2 INCHES...WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS OVER 14KFT...AND THIN CAPE PROFILES STILL SUPPORTIVE OF
INCREDIBLY PRECIPITATION EFFICIENT STORMS...UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR INCREASING FLOOD RISK TONIGHT.  THE
TIPPECANOE AND EEL RIVERS ARE ALREADY RESPONDING TO RAINFALL TODAY
AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE OTHERS FOLLOW SUIT.

TRIMMED POPS SLIGHTLY IN THE SE ON TUESDAY AND WENT WITH COVERAGE
WORDING PER NAM TRENDING QUICKER WITH LEAD OUTFLOW ASSISTED TROUGH.
IT DOES LOOK AS THOUGH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL HANG BACK AND NOT
COME THROUGH UNTIL AFTERNOON WITH STILL UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG MLCAPE
AHEAD OF FRONT SO SCATTERED COVERAGE STILL SEEMS PRUDENT. THOUGH
THERE COULD BE SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NORTHWEST LATE
AFTERNOON NW LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS DOWN NEAR THE
LAKE AND CUT BACK ON HIGHS IN WRN BERRIEN COUNTY A TOUCH TO ACCOUNT.
FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR AREA TUE NIGHT AND TRIMMED BUT HELD ON TO LOW
POPS IN THE SOUTH AS EXACT LOCATION OF STALLING BOUNDARY STILL IN
QUESTION.

&&

.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BECOME EVEN
MORE AMPLIFIED THIS PERIOD AS A TROF EVENTUALLY DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE THIS PERIOD PER ECMWF...GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES. THE
ONGOING FORECAST WITH WARM AND WET CONDITIONS TRANSITING TO A COOLER
AND DRY PATTERN APPEARS ON TRACK...SO HAVE ON MADE MINOR CHANGES.
HOWEVER...CONCERN IS FOR THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING. MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHEAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM. BELIEVE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING GIVEN MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES AND A STRONG SHORT WAVE. AFTER
FRIDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY AND COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS/...

ANOTHER VERY DIFFICULT TAF PERIOD WITH LITERALLY A HALF DOZEN OR
MORE BOUNDARIES ROAMING AROUND THE AREA IN THIS LOW FLOW
ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED CONVECTION ALL AROUND KFWA YET TO IMPACT
RUNWAYS BUT EXPECT THAT CONVECTION OVER NRN HUNTINGTON COUNTY WILL
MAKE AN IMPACT IN THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS AND INCLUDED TEMPO TSRA
GROUP AS SUCH. WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...FULLY EXPECT ONE
OR BOTH TAF SITES TO DROP TO AT LEAST MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH MUCH LOWER
CIGS OR VISBYS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE WITH THESE
BOUNDARIES FLOATING AROUND SO TRIED BEST TO TIME/PLACE MOVEMENT OF
BNDRYS.

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SIMPSON
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...SIMPSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
417 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2009

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-180830-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
417 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2009 /317 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OF STORMS EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF US 24. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...A FEW STORMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG...GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN ON TUESDAY...PRIMARILY
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF US 24. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG...GUSTY WINDS. IN
ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH PONDING OF
WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WENDESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS BY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE
EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT FORM DURING THIS PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-180830-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
417 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...A FEW STORMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG...GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WENDESDAY
NIGHT...THERE IS AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS BY
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT TIMING
AND LOCATION OF THIS THREAT.

WINDS MAY CAUSE CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/PROGRAMAREAS/MARINE/INDEX.PHP

ARNOTT

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