Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
306 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2009

.SHORT TERM...
CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS TSTMS WAS
SLOWLY ERODING AND WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WAS ADVECTING NE INTO THE
AREA. ILX/DTX MORNING SOUNDINGS BOTH SUGGESTED CONSIDERABLE CAPPING
FOR SFC BASED CONVECTION IN PLACE BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/HEATING SHOULD ALLOW THIS TO BE OVERCOME LATE THIS AFTN AND
THIS EVE AS CDFNT OVER WI/IA MOVES SE AND MCV OVER IA MOVES EAST.
THUS, THINK ITS LIKELY THAT TSTMS WILL DVLP UPSTREAM AND PSBLY OVER
THE CWA LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING. MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG
AND 30-40KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTS TO SUGGEST A THREAT OF SVR
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SWRN PORTION OF CWA WHERE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. SHEAR GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
SUGGESTING MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND WITH LINE SEGMENTS
AND POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.

FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA BY TUE MORNING AS
ANOTHER SHRTWV/CDFNT MOVES SE-E INTO THE UPR GRTLKS/PLAINS. LOW
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BACK DURING THE DAY AS SHRTWV APPROACHES WHICH MAY
CAUSE SOME OVER-RUNNING SHOWERS/TSTMS IN OUR AREA. CWA EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ON COOLER SIDE OF FRONT TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS
AROUND 10F COOLER THAN TODAY... RANGING FROM THE U60S NW TO THE U70S
SE.

AS LOW AMPLITUDE SHRTWV TROF CONTS TO PROGRESS E-SE ACROSS THE UPR
GRTLKS AND MS VALLEY TUE NGT ANOTHER SFC CDFNT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH
OUR AREA. SOME INSTABILITY...MAINLY ELEVATED WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA... WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DVLP. VERY MOIST
AIRMASS, SLOW MOVG FRONT, AND SMALL MBE VECTORS SUGGEST POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. DECENT WIND
FIELDS AND SHEAR ALSO SUGGESTS A FEW STORMS MAY BE SVR...MAINLY
ACROSS SRN PORTION OF CWA WHERE BETTER CHC OF SFC BASED INSTABILITY
IN THE EVE. WILL TURN COOLER BEHIND THIS FRONT TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS
BY WED MORNING RANGING FROM THE U40S NORTH TO THE M50S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

INITIAL FOCUS WILL BE ON FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...FINALLY PUSHING AWAY FROM THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO BUILD SOUTH AND CLEAR THINGS OUT. GFS/GEM/ECMWF ALL INDICATE A
WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WITH MUCH OF THE CWA STILL ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF IT WEDS MORNING...WITH SE AREAS POSSIBLY INTO
AFTERNOON. AFTER COLLABORATION AND FOLLOWING THINKING OF OVERNIGHT
SHIFT...HAVE EXPANDED POPS TO ALL AREAS WEDS AM BUT KEPT IN CHC AT
THIS POINT WITH POPS THEN CONFINED TO LOW CHC IN SE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. DEWPTS ONLY IN THE 40S TO MAYBE NEAR 50 AND NORTHEAST
FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE THUNDER AT THIS TIME SO WILL ONLY GO WITH
SHOWERS. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY PRECIP AROUND AND AREA ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT...HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SOMEWHAT.

RIDGE LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD WEDS NGT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY
SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES IN AND BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WELL AS A POTENTIAL SIG WARM UP. 850MB
TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND OF GREATER THAN 20 C WILL BE OFF TO THE WEST
WHICH WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE 90S. HOWEVER...DONT THINK WE WILL
GET THAT WARM HERE BUT MID 80S AND INCREASING DEWPTS LOOK ON TAP. IN
TERMS OF PRECIP...GFS TRIES TO BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN
SATURDAY...BUT PREFER THE SLOWER ARRIVAL TO THINGS MORE IN THE SAT
NGT TO SUNDAY NIGHT FRAME. LOW LOOKS TO BE PULLING AWAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ARRIVING FOR MONDAY SO HAVE WENT DRY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 126 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2009/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTN. UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ADVECTING NE INTO NRN INDIANA AHEAD OF CDFNT DROPPING SE ACROSS
WI/IA. COMBINATION OF THIS FRONT AND WK SHRTWV MOVG EAST ACROSS IA
SHOULD CAUSE TSRA TO DVLP OVER OR JUST UPSTREAM OF THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTN AND MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS EVE WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS...PSBLY BRIEFLY IFR. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AND STALL OVER CENTRAL INDIANA BY TUE MORNING. MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DVLP BEHIND THE FRONT AND SCT SHRA/TSRA
ALSO PSBL NEARER TO THE BOUNDARY... FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED SHRA AT
FWA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...WEISSER/FISHER
AVIATION...JT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
446 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2009

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-020900-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
446 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2009 /346 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THESE WILL BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-020900-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
446 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE LAKE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WAVES
WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAY TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. WAVES WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THESE WILL BE SEVERE.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/PROGRAMAREAS/MARINE/INDEX.PHP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
617 PM EDT MON JUN 01 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 PM     HAIL             MARION                  40.56N  85.66W
06/01/2009  M0.70 INCH       GRANT              IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTED ON NORTH SIDE OF MARION

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0902618

LMK

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