River Flood Warning 92, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
352 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009

...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT...LARGEST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE NEAR TERM WITH
RETREATING WARM FRONT AND STRONG BUT NOT YET SEVERE CONVECTION
FIRING NORTH OF THE H92 LLEVEL THETAE BOUNDARY. MOST OF THE AREA
REMAINS CAPPED UNDER SOMEWHAT LOWER THETAE VALUES BEHIND MORNING
MCS. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MIXING OUT GIVEN
A DECENT BIT OF MORNING SUN AND H85 AND H92 FLOW THAT HAS VEERED
SOUTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA...SHOWN BY THE
WOLCOTT PROFILER. A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY REMAINS HOWEVER AND THIS
BOUNDARY ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM H92 TO H85 MAY STILL
SPARK CONVECTION DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT...CELLS HAVE BEEN TRAINING SOMEWHAT AND EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT /SEE BELOW/ WILL
CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS THAT SAW 1-3+ INCHES OF
RAINFALL THIS MORNING.

UNFORTUNATELY...EVEN IF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT DOES NOT
GENERATE CONVECTION...EXPECT THAT WE WILL NOT BE OFF THE HOOK AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW OVER NEBRASKA AND IOWA AS WELL AS ITS
ASSOCIATED UPPER SHORTWAVE PULLS EAST TONIGHT. GIVEN 0-3KM SHEAR
INCREASING TO 30-40KTS AND A LINEAR FORCING MECHANISM...EXPECT
ONE OR TWO LINES OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING WITH A BOW ECHO...OR SOME BOWING SEGMENTS LIKELY.
ALSO...ISOLATED SPIN UP TORNADOES ALONG THIS LINE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN CLEARING THE AREA BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME REMAINING SHRAS THROUGH DAYBREAK.
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...BUT TAPER TO CHC IN
THE NORTHWEST WITH ANY TSRAS AFTER 6Z LIKELY FROM ABOUT FWA SOUTH
AND EAST.  LOWS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WON/T DROP ALL THAT FAR GIVEN
CLOUD COVER...WINDS AND NOT THAT COLD OF A PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT.
EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONGER TERM DISCUSSION...
SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END EARLY
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
IN HANDLING OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE
WARMER WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES THAN THE GFS...WARMING CLOSE TO
20C DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. KEPT THE ONGOING FORECAST
DRY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1225 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009/

AVIATION /18Z TAFS/...

VFR BOTH SITES ATTM WITH CONVECTION NEARING SBN. EXPECT STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION TO REACH SBN IN THE 18-22Z TIMEFRAME WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR RESTRICTIONS LIKELY ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY TAKE LONGER TO REACH
FWA...SO HAVE LEFT CONDITIONS VFR HERE LONGER /UNTIL 22Z/...BUT
CAN/T RULE OUT A POP UP STORM THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER MORE DISCRETE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE WITH ONE OR MORE LINES DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. HAVE
CONTINUED MVFR SHRAS WITH CB GROUPS TO HANDLE THIS ACTIVITY. AFTER
MIDNIGHT TSRA SHOULD TAPER TO SHRAS WITH MVFR FOG /AND PERHAPS IFR
GIVEN ENOUGH RAINFALL/ DEVELOPING. CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR
SATURDAY MORNING WITH JUST SOME SCT REMAINING CU.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 14G22KTS WILL CONTINUE THOUGH THE EVENING...
VEERING MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT. CERTAINLY MUCH STRONGER WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS. FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY WEST NORTHWEST
WINDS 14G22KTS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR
     INZ003>009-018.

MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-
     015-016-024-025.

LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...ARNOTT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
557 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-201000-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
557 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009 /457 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. ISOLATED TORNADOES AND FLOODING
DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NECESSARY AT TIMES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-201000-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
557 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
WITH WIND GUSTS ABOVE 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
626 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0607 PM     HAIL             BIPPUS                  40.94N  85.62W
06/19/2009  E1.00 INCH       HUNTINGTON         IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0902711

BJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
636 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0536 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PLYMOUTH                41.34N  86.31W
06/19/2009                   MARSHALL           IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON 18TH AND APPLE

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0902712

BJS

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