Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
817 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009

.UPDATE...

HAVE UPDATED TO CANCEL BOTH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES AS COLD
DOME ASSOCIATED WITH MORNING MCS HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED THE SEVERE
THREAT FOR THE TIME BEING. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME ELEVATED
CELLS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AND THESE WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
AND MAY BRING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

GIVEN SOME TIME TO RECOVER...EXPECT ROUND TWO TO GET GOING THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MORE DETAILS ON THIS LATER THIS MORNING.

UPDATED PRODUCTS/GRIDS ARE OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009/

AVIATION...
TSRA CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF WARM FRONT AND MOVG SE ALONG
IT HAS RESULTED IN SFC BOUNDARY BEING SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH
DESPITE RATHER STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT. TSRA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AFFECTING THE TERMINALS THROUGH MID MORNING. DIURNAL
HEATING/MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN FRONT MOVG NE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CDFNT OVER WRN IA/MN THIS
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AIRMASS
EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ALLOWING TSRA
TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND LINGERING BOUNDARIES IN THE WARM
SECTOR LATE THIS AFTN/EVE. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON THAT AMOUNT OF DETAIL
ATTM. SHOWERS AND PSBLY SOME TSRA SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, BUT
FOR NOW JUST MENTIONED TSRA LATE THIS AFTN/EVE WHEN APPEARS WILL
BE MOST LIKELY. SOME MVFR CIGS PSBL BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT
BUT MODELS HAVE DIFFERING OPINIONS ON EXTENT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND NOT MUCH EVIDENCE OF LOW CIGS UPSTREAM SO FOR NOW
JUST FCST LOW VFR CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009/

DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SRN MN THIS MORNING
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SE INTO SW OH. PROFILER INDICATING
50KT LLJ INTERSECTING THIS WARM FRONT RESULTING IN MCS DEVELOPMENT
OVER NE IA/SRN WI OVERNIGHT. UPWIND PROPAGATION VECTORS ACROSS THE
REGION SUGGESTS THIS AREA OF STORMS WILL MOVE SE ACROSS OUR CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN THE MCS COULD
RESULT IN DAMAGING WINDS. THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS EXTRAPOLATES
THROUGH THE CWA BY AROUND 12-14Z SO FORECAST CATEGORICAL POPS
NORTH AND LIKELY POPS SOUTH EARLY TODAY WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY
MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTN WITH JUST A CHC OF STORMS DURING THIS
TIME. AIRMASS SHOULD RESUME DESTABILIZATION WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING. MLCAPES CONT TO BE FCST AROUND 3KJ/KG THIS AFTN AS
LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS WI AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT DROPS INTO ERN
WI/NRN IL. TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF CDFNT THIS
AFTN. GIVEN HIGH INSTABILITY, DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL
TURNING OF WINDS, SUPERCELLS PSBL WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT, PRBLY
TRANSITIONING TO LINES/BOWS AFTER A FEW HRS. CDFNT EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH TSTM POPS AND THREAT
OF SVR WX CONTINUING. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IF TRAINING
OCCURS...ESPECIALLY THIS EVE AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W-E LATE TONIGHT AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS PSBL SATURDAY, THOUGH
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON FRONTAL PRECIP ENDING
SOONER AND HAVE THUS TRENDED POPS LOWER FOR SAT AND CONFINED
MENTION TO THE 12-18Z TIMEFRAME.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RIDGE OVER SRN U.S. WILL
BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE UPR GRTLKS/MS VALLEY BY SUNDAY. STILL
SOME INDICATIONS OF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE SUNDAY- TUE TIMEFRAME AS
MODELS MOVG WK SHRTWVS THROUGH NRN PORTION OF THE RIDGE, HWVR,
POOR AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THESE WK FEATURES AND PRBLY LOW
COVERAGE GIVEN LIGHT WIND FIELDS AND RIDGING ALOFT, SO OPTED TO
KEEP FCST DRY THROUGH THESE PERIODS.

AS FOR TEMPS, BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT HEATING/MIXING TODAY
FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE U80S/L90S. BUMPED UP HIGHS A BIT FOR SATURDAY
AS WELL AS MODELS INDICATING DECENT MIXING WILL LIMIT AFFECTS OF
WK CAA SO EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE L-M80S, EXCEPT COOLER NEAR LM
WITH W-NW FLOW. RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY, BUT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND A COOLER START TO THE DAY EXPECT HIGHS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE M80S. WITH RIDGE REMAINING
IN THE VCNTY NEXT WK, APPEARS TEMPS WILL CONT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE M-U80S.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JT
UPDATE...ARNOTT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
557 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-201000-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
557 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009 /457 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. ISOLATED TORNADOES AND FLOODING
DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NECESSARY AT TIMES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-201000-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
557 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
WITH WIND GUSTS ABOVE 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
734 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW CROMWELL           41.38N  85.64W
06/19/2009                   NOBLE              IN   NWS EMPLOYEE

            MULTIPLE LARGE TREE LIMBS SNAPPED ON 200 N BETWEEN SR 5
            AND 1150 W IN NOBLE COUNTY

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0902689

BJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
811 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009

INZ004-191245-
ST. JOSEPH IN-
811 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009

AT 810 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SOUTH BEND...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  GULIVOIRE PARK...MISHAWAKA AND LAKEVILLE...
  OSCEOLA AND WOODLAND...
  WYATT...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 90 IN INDIANA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 69 AND
79.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4176 8638 4176 8635 4168 8607 4149 8607
      4149 8624 4161 8649 4164 8649
TIME...MOT...LOC 1211Z 302DEG 35KT 4164 8633

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
849 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009

INZ003-004-191330-
LA PORTE IN-ST. JOSEPH IN-
849 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009

AT 747 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES WEST OF NEW CARLISLE...OR NEAR LA
PORTE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BRIEF MODERATE DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  NEW CARLISLE...
  NORTH LIBERTY...
  FISH LAKE AND HUDSON LAKE...
  FISH LAKE...
  CRUMSTOWN...LYDICK AND CHAIN-O-LAKES...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 90 IN INDIANA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 50 AND
74.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4176 8629 4149 8637 4162 8675 4175 8670
TIME...MOT...LOC 1250Z 288DEG 26KT 4166 8664

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
938 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0907 AM     HAIL             CRUMSTOWN               41.62N  86.41W
06/19/2009  E0.75 INCH       ST. JOSEPH         IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND WITH SMALL
            BRANCHES DOWN AND A FEW SHINGLES OFF

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0902691

BJS