Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Indianapolis, IN

000 
WWUS53 KIND 181052
SVSIND

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
652 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

INC153-181115-
/O.CON.KIND.SV.W.0075.000000T0000Z-090618T1115Z/
SULLIVAN-
652 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 AM
EDT/615 AM CDT/ FOR SULLIVAN COUNTY...

AT 652 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR MEROM...OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROBINSON...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SULLIVAN AROUND 705 AM EDT...
  PAXTON AROUND 710 AM EDT...
  CARLISLE AROUND 715 AM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING
IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY REMEMBER...IF
YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3919 8762 3920 8760 3914 8727 3890 8729
      3891 8753 3896 8754 3897 8755 3899 8759
      3906 8759 3911 8767 3915 8767
TIME...MOT...LOC 1052Z 294DEG 25KT 3907 8757

$$

JOHNSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
300 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

.DISCUSSION
MAIN WEATHER FACTOR TO WORK WITH ARE THE THUNDERSTORMS. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. OVERNIGHT THE NAM HAS A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IT HAD A BULLSEYE OF PCPN IN
WESTERN KY WHERE A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE. IT
ALSO HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED IN WESTERN IL. THIS PCPN IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF PVA
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH INDIANA DURING THE MORNING. DUE TO THIS
PLACED A CHC OF TSTMS IN THE FCST DURING THE MORNING. LARGE
DIFFERENCE IN MODEL POPS AND TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE INCREASES TO 4600 FOR THE GFS WITH THE NAM HAVING SLIGHTLY
LOWER VALUES. LI'S RANGE FROM -6 TO -9 THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS
HAVE STRONG POSITIVE OMEGA VALUES. DUE TO ALL THIS INSTABILITY AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MODEL TEMPS HAVE A BIG DIFFERENCE. FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
RUNS THE NAM WANTS TO DECREASE TEMPS EVEN THOUGH BOTH MODELS SHOW
STRONG WAA. MUCH OF THE TEMP INCREASE WIL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF
PCPN DURING THE MORNING. SINCE THE GFS DIDN'T HAVE THE PCPN THIS
MRNG WILL NOT GO AS HIGH AS IT SHOWS BUT WITH THE WAA AND ANY
SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL GO MUCH WARMER THEN THE NAM. TONIGHT THE WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH. ALL OTHER VALUES BECOME MORE STABLE SO
AFTER THE INITIAL HIGH TSTM PROB DURING THE EVENING WILL DECREASE
POPS TO SLGT CHC CNTRL AND S BUT KEEP A CHC GOING CLOSER TO THE
FRONT IN THE N. MODELS ONLY DIFFER A LITTLE ON THE LOW TEMPS SO WILL
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE.

ON FRIDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE AGAIN INCREASES TO BETTER THEN 4000. THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE S/W MOVES IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON. LI'S OF BOTH MODELS ARE AROUND -8. DEW POINTS WILL BE
AROUND 70 WITH HIGHS ARND 90. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LIKELY POPS DUE
TO ALL THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. HIGH TEMPS WILL AGAIN DEPEND ON
HOW QUICK THE PCPN MOVES IN. BOTH MODELS CONVERGE ON THE TEMPS BUT
WITH THE PCPN MOVING IN WILL GO CLOSER TO THE NOT AS HOT NAM.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY DURING SAT MRNG. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION GIVING THE AREA A BREAK IN
THE PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION...

DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY STREAM INTO THE TAF SITES THE
FIRST THREE HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS HEADS THIS WAY.
SOME MVFR LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AT BMG AND LAF BUT OTHERWISE THE
CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT EFFECTIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. THE
COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD IMPACT WESTERN TERMINALS OF LAF AND HUF
TOWARDS 12Z. IT WILL BE IN A WEAKENING PHASE SO THE COVERAGE OF
THUNDER IS IN QUESTION. WILL MENTION CB AT ALL SITES THIS MORNING
BUT NEED TO SEE HOW THE COMPLEX EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS TO DETERMINE THE ACTUAL COVERAGE OF STORMS. COMPLEX SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 16-18Z. THEN SOME BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BEFORE
THE NEXT CHANCE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. FOR NOW WILL JUST INCLUDE CB QUALIFIERS AGAIN AS THE
COVERAGE WILL BE IN QUESTION. STORMS SHOULD END AFTER 01-02Z AND
THEN RETURNING TO VFR.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AVIATION...JOHNSON
PUBLIC...HAINES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
613 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

INZ039>042-045>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-191015-
HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-
HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-
GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-
LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
613 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY.

A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS OVER INDIANA. PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE THROUGH. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BUT TORNADOES COULD NOT
BE RULED OUT. BY MIDNIGHT ALL THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
EITHER MOVE OUT OR DECREASE BELOW SEVERE WEATHER LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE EVENING. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES.

IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 90 WITH HIGH HUMIDITIES MAY POSE A HEALTH RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND MORE LIKELY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING THEN AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ021-028>031-035>038-043-044-191015-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-VERMILLION-PARKE-
613 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY.

A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS OVER INDIANA. THIS WILL CAUSE PERIODS
OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BUT TORNADOES COULD NOT
BE RULED OUT. BY MIDNIGHT ALL THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
EITHER MOVE OUT OR DECREASE BELOW SEVERE WEATHER LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE EVENING. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES.

IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 90 WITH HIGH HUMIDITIES MAY POSE A HEALTH RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND MORE LIKELY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING THEN AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

HAINES