Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
300 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2009

.DISCUSSION

PRIMARY CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG STORM THREAT TONIGHT WHILE
BUILDING RIDGE BRINGS EXTENDED DRY PATTERN LATE SATURDAY INTO MID
WEEK AT LEAST.

QUITE ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS NRN IL AS WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA.  TEMPERATURES REACHING MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE OR WILL CLIMB TO MID AND
UPPER 60S LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND FORECAST WILL BE A BLEND
OF THESE. ONE AREA OF DIFFERENCE HOWEVER WAS IN QPF FOR TONIGHT
WHICH HAS BEARING ON FLOOD WATCH. CHOSE TO AVERAGE GFS AND NAM QPF
AND MOS GUIDANCE DATA BRINGING FCST QPFS AROUND ONE INCH TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...SOMEWHAT MORE UNSTABLE RELATIVE TO CONDITIONS TWO NIGHTS
BACK. DYNAMICS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS TWO NIGHTS BACK WITH STRONGEST
850MB WINDS PUSHING NORTH OF FCST AREA BEFORE STORMS ARRIVE. END
RESULT WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR POTENTIAL
SEVERE ESPECIALLY EARLY IN EVENT OVER OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES.
HOWEVER GIVEN MARGINAL AMOUNT OF SEVERE CONVECTION TWO DAYS BACK AND
TONIGHTS CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY LESS CONDUCIVE...ALONG WITH LATE NIGHT
LESS FAVORABLE SEVERE WEATHER TIMING...DO NOT THINK SEVERE THREAT IS
QUITE AS GREAT AS WEDNESDAY.

GIVEN DECENT INFLUX OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...EXPECT HEAVY RAIN TO BE
A THREAT BUT AGAIN NOT AS SERIOUS AS TWO DAYS AGO. HOWEVER...WITH
ELEVATED STREAMS AND SATURATED SOIL...FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE IN
HIGHEST QPF AREA CENTERED NEAR LAFAYETTE AND THUS HAVE INTRODUCED
FLOOD WATCH.

SATURDAY...MODELS MAINTAIN SOME PCPN ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AS CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS OHIO RIVER. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
ONGOING FCST WITH THIS.  BY LATE IN DAY SATURDAY SUN SHOULD BE
SHINING IN NW COUNTIES WITH REMAINING HIGH CLOUDS THINNING AND
CLEARING IN SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
UPPER RIDGE TAKES CONTROL PROVIDNING DRY WEATHER.  LOW DEWPOINTS AND
LIGHT WINDS UNDER CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR
A FEW LOCATIONS TO BRIEFLY TOUCH UPPER 30S THOUGH WET AND WARM
GROUND SHOULD PREVENT ANY CHANCE FOR FROST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE PUSHED BACK
INTO GREAT LAKES WITH SYSTEMS TRAVERSING NORTH PERIPHERY OF RIDGE
FIRING CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS IN NORTHWEST FLOW.  CENTRAL INDIANA SHOULD
REMAIN ON SOUTH EDGE OF THIS STAYING DRY AND WARM BUT BEARS WATCHING
FOR INTRODUCTION OF RAIN CHANCES AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 15/1800Z TAFS

WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MOIST AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW BROKEN CU TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTN WITH CIGS AROUND BKN050. SCT CONVECTION WILL FIRE
IN THE UNSTABLE ATMS. HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LOW TO MENTION
OTHER THAN A CB MENTION.

DIURNAL DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY THIS EVENING...BUT
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE AFT 06Z AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
IN. TIMING LOOKS A BIT SLOWER THAN PREV EXPECTED SO HAVE SLOWED
TIMING DOWN BY A COUPLE OF HOURS FROM PREV FORECASTS. SINCE TSRA
STILL MORE THAN 12H OUT HAVE NOT PUT IN A TEMPO YET AS LATER
FORECASTS CAN BETTER PIN DOWN THE TIMING. MVFR CONDS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR IN ANY TSRA. AFTER FROPA CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR BY 13Z OR SO
AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THRU ABOUT THE END OF THE PD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...CS/CC
PUBLIC...DT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
355 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2009

INZ036>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-162000-
MONTGOMERY-BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-
VERMILLION-PARKE-PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-
OWEN-MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-
BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
355 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL INDIANA...MAINLY NORTH OF A SULLIVAN TO NEW CASTLE LINE.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WHILE A SOLID LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN THAT MAY CAUSE
FLOODING. NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD WITH ELEVATED FLOODING
LEVELS POSSIBLE FROM RAINS OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

EXTENSIVE FLOODING ALONG THE BIG BLUE RIVER...EAST FORK WHITE
RIVER...EEL RIVER...MUSCATATUCK RIVER...WABASH RIVER...WHITE
RIVER...AND MANY SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC STATEMENTS FOR
SPECIFIC RIVER FORECASTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ021-028>031-035-162000-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-
355 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING. A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE AROUND MIDNIGHT AND LAST THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE STORMS WILL BE FLOODING FROM
THE HEAVY RAINS. HAIL TO NICKEL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD AND ELEVATED FLOODING
LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

FLOODING ALONG WABASH RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC STATEMENTS FOR
SPECIFIC RIVER FORECASTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

TUCEK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
631 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2009

INZ056-064-065-072-152315-
BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-JENNINGS-SHELBY-
631 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR BARTHOLOMEW...DECATUR...
NORTHWESTERN JENNINGS AND SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM
EDT...

AT 628 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM COLUMBUS TO ELIZABETHTOWN TO COUNTRY SQUIRE
LAKES...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  NEWBERN AROUND 640 PM EDT...
  FLAT ROCK AROUND 650 PM EDT...
  LETTS AROUND 655 PM EDT...
  GENEVA AROUND 700 PM EDT...

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LISTEN FOR
LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE FLOODING WARNINGS...SHOULD THE RISK FOR
MINOR LOW LAND FLOODING BECOME MORE IMMINENT.

SALLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
706 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             HOPE                    39.30N 85.77W
05/15/2009  E1.75 INCH       BARTHOLOMEW        IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 70 MPH WIND

&&