River Flood Warning 141, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
711 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

.AVIATION...

DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.

THE FORECAST PROBLEM EARLY ON WILL BE THE MORNING FOG. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS FOG SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT BY 13-14Z AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 12-13KTS WITH A BIT OF GUSTINESS
UP TO 20KTS. WITH DRY AIR INITIALLY PRESENT THIS MORNING...PRECIP
CHANCES WILL NOT RETURN UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 21Z SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND SO WILL JUST HANDLE THIS WITH A MENTION OF CB ON
THE CLOUD GROUPS. THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL AGAIN
TONIGHT. AFTER CB DISSIPATES BY 02Z IT WILL BE VFR AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN WHICH SHOULD HELP FOR LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP WITH
HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINING. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING BY 12Z
THURSDAY WILL HELP TO KEEP SURFACE MOISTURE HIGH IN CENTRAL
INDIANA SO FOR NOW WILL HAVE MVFR VSBY FROM FOG IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2009/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE SHORT TERM THE MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. INITIALLY THE NAM HAS THE FRONT SLIGHTLY FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH WHICH FITS SURFACE OBS. BY 12Z THEIR LOCATIONS DIFFER
LITTLE. THE LOW THAT IS ALONG THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST.
THIS WILL MOVE A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AT 00Z THE
NAM HOLDS IT IN SOUTHERN INDIANA WHILE THE GFSMOVES IT TO THE OHIO
RIVER. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS
AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTANT WITH BRINGING A MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE AROUND 3000. WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF
THERE SHOULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OF PARTLY SUNNY WHICH SHOULD GIVE A
QUICK TEMP INCREASE. ALSO WITH THE FRONT MOVING TO THE NORTH THERE
MAY BE MORE SUNSHINE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HELP TO
INCREASE TEMPS. WITH THE FRONT MOVING TO THE NORTH THERE IS WAA. THE
NAM BRINGS IN THE MOST. THE WAA ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE WILL GO
WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER NAM TEMPS.

AT 06Z THE GFS HOLDS THE FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. THE NAM MOVES IT
THERE BUT THEN MOVES IT EAST OF OHIO BY 12Z. THIS MOVEMENT IS WAY TO
FAST CONSIDERING THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN AROUND FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WITH
THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WHICH WOULD GIVE LESS CAA WENT
CLOSER TO THE WARMER GFS TEMPS.

ON THURSDAY STRONG WAA BEGINS. 850 MB TEMPS INCREASE 1-2 DEGREES
DURING THE DAY. THE GFS HAS A BETTER HANDLE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH IT
INCREASING TEMPS. THE NAM DECREASES TEMPS. SO WILL GO WITH THE
WARMER GFS TEMPS. THE PREFERED GFS DOES INCREASE THE CAPE TO 5000.
DEW POINTS WILL BE AROUND 70. WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WARMER GFS TEMPS.

THE NEXT CHANGE IN WEATHER WILL BE A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTANT WITH THIS. IT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
NIGHT. THESE SHOULD MOVE OUT DURING THE MORNING. DRY WEATHER WILL
THEN MOVE IN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AVIATION...JOHNSON
PUBLIC...SH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
620 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-181030-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
620 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG WITH UNSTABLE AIR WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED BUT THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WHICH COULD PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING AND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WITH A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THIS WEEK...THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER EACH DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. STAY TUNED FOR LATER
UPDATES ON THE EXTENDED SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

HAINES