River Flood Warning 104, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
700 AM EDT THU APR 30 2009

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.

APPROACHING DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND PRECIP SHIELD
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR VIS/CIG CONDS WITH PERIODS OF IFR VIS
CONDS IN -SHRA OR -TSRA THROUGH 16Z. AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS JUST
NORTH OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY LOOK FOR SFC WINDS TO VEER TO THE SSW AND
INCREASE WITH GUSTS AOA 20KTS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z. WE COULD SEE A
DECREASE IN THE PRECIP COVERAGE AFTER 18Z AS THE FIRST WAVE DEPARTS
HOWEVER A SECOND WAVE WILL APPROACH BY 00Z WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIP
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THEREAFTER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON PRECIP TODAY.

A WEAK WMFNT WAS JUST SOUTH OF I-70 WITH SCT SHOWERS OVER THE SE
CWA.  A SFC LOW OVR MO WILL MOVE NE INTO NORTHERN INDIANA LATER
TODAY.

TODAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND SHWV WILL PUSH THE WMFNT INTO THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE LATER TODAY.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME.  SEVERE
PARAMATERS 0-6K SHEAR AROUND 35KTS WITH CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG OR
LESS.  WITH CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED FOR
SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  WITH H85 JET INCREASING TO
45-50KTS LATER THIS MORNING AND BUFKIT SHOWING SOME MIXING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH.  WAA THROUGH
THE DAY WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S.  AS THE SFC LOW MOVES
INTO NORTHERN INDIANA CONVECTION WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AND
HAVE TAPERED POPS OFF.  WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1 TO 1.5 HAVE ADDED
HEAVY RAIN TO THE GRIDS.

TONIGHT...SECOND SHWV WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA LATER
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  MOISTURE STILL ON THE INCREASE
TONIGHT SO HEAVY RAIN WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.  STORM TOTAL PRECIP
COULD REACH AROUND AN INCH BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION SETS UP.

FRIDAY...WITH THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STILL LINGERING/STALLING
ON FRIDAY HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING THEN TAPERING OFF TO
CHANCE FROM NW TO SE IN THE AFTERNOON.  BY EVENING...THE GFS BRINGS
A STRONG WAVE THROUGH BUT A COMPARISON OF STABLE/CONV PRECIP SHOWS
THIS MAY BE A FEEDBACK ISSUE AND HAVE DISCOUNTED THE HIGH QPF.
LEANING TOWARDS THE NAM RESULTS IN LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN
THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE CWA.

SATURDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL BE DRY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY.  CLOSED H5 LOW OVER ERN CANADA
WILL KEEP MOST PRECIP TO THE FAR NORTH OR SOUTH.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN ITS TREK TOWARD
INDIANA ON SUNDAY WITH AN H5 LOW MOVING OUT OF SOCAL.  STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM SO WILL CONTINUE TO
CONFINE POPS TO THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY.  AS THE
H5 LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC SYSTEM GET CLOSER PRECIP WILL SPREAD
ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY NIGHT.  BY MONDAY THE
GFS/ECMWF ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS.  TEMPS ON SUNDAY/MON
WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...SALLY
AVIATION...CO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
358 AM EDT THU APR 30 2009

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-062>065-069>072-010800-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-MARTIN-
LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
358 AM EDT THU APR 30 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH STRONG WIND...HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH STRONG
WIND...HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING THE MAIN THREATS.

THE THREAT FOR MINOR FLOODING ALONG AREA RIVERS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE EXPECTED RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ060-061-067-068-010800-
SULLIVAN-GREENE-KNOX-DAVIESS-
358 AM EDT THU APR 30 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH STRONG WIND...HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING THE MAIN THREATS.

LOWLAND FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE LOWER WABASH AND LOWER WHITE
RIVERS.  SEE THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC STATEMENT FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH STRONG
WIND...HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING THE MAIN THREATS.

LOWLAND FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE LOWER WABASH AND LOWER WHITE
RIVERS. SEE THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC STATEMENT FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

SALLY