River Flood Advisory 8, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
720 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2009

.DISCUSSIION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MS VALLEY AT 12Z TODAY WILL MOVE TO
APPALACHIANS BY 12Z SATURDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KTS TDY
BECOMING LGT SW BY LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THIS MOVEMENT. DRY
AIR WITH HIGH WILL RESULT IN VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. AFT 08Z AREAS
VSBYS 2-3SM IN BR BUT SKIES RMNG CLR.
&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST WL BE TIMING OF THE TRWS OUT
OF THE FA. THEN...DOWN THE ROAD...TIMING AND CVRG OF TRWS SAT/SAT
NGT AHEAD OF ANOTHER CD FNT. KIND-88D WAS SHOWING THE MAIN AREA OF
TRWS ACRS OUR SERN COUNTIES NEAR AND UPR WAVE AND LIFTING NE AHEAD
OF A WAVE ACRS WRN TN THAT WAS RIDING NEWD ALONG A STNRY FNT ALONG
THE OH RVR. FINALLY...UPR PATTERN FEATURED THE AFOREMENTIONED S/W
AHEAD OF A TROF ACRS THE UPR GT LKS AND CNTRL PLAINS.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...PRECIP SHOULD BE E OF THE FA BY 12Z THIS
MRNG AS THE SFC WAVE LIFTS TO NERN KY DRAGGING THE FNT TO ERN KY.
THIS AGREES BETTER WITH THE SLIGHTY QUICKER 00Z GFS. SFC HIGH PRES
THEN TO SPREAD E ACRS CNTRL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MODEL TIME
SECS SHOW NICE DRYING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. MEANWHILE...MODELS ARE
FAVORING ONLY SCT DIURNAL AFTERNOON CU. BASED ON 850MB TEMPS PROGGED
AT 13-14 DEGREES CELSIUS TODAY...FEEL SIMILAR MOS MAY BE A DEGREE OR
TWO TOO WARM TODAY.

TNGT...SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES OVER OH VLY AND SRN GT LKS WITH A
WEAK GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CALM WINDS. MEANWHILE...THE
COLUMN REMAINS DRY SO SHOULD SEE VERY GOOD RADIATION COOLING WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE MID 50S ALONG
THE COUNTYSIDE. PREFER SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. MAY NEED TO ADD FOG LATER AS WELL BUT
WILL SEE WHAT THE 12Z RUNS AND BUFKIT ARE SHOWING. GFS AND NAM WERE
FASTER THAN THE EURO ON SATURDAY NGT BRINING THE CD FNT THROUGH.
HOWEVER...THE EURO WAS DRY OWING TO A MUCH DRIER MN LVL RH PROG.
BASED ON CONTINUITY AND STRENGTH IN NUMBERS PREFER TO STICK WITH THE
GFS/NAM COMBO WHICH BRINGS A SMALL CHC SATURDAY AFTERNOON W...GOOD
CHC ALL ZONES SATURDAY NGT AND NO PRECIP ON SUN. SO...WL PULL SLGT
CHC POPS ON SUN.

WL KEEP SMALL CHC POPS IN MON NGT THROUGH THU AS ANOTHER FNT MOVES
THROUGH AND APPEARS TO STALL ACRS THE OH VLY.

&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...KWIATKOWSKI
PUBLIC...MK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
724 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2009

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-011130-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
724 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVER ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LIGHTNING IS A THREAT FROM ANY
THUNDERSTORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)