Areal Flood Warning 13, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
730 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2009

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS
TAFS WILL START OUT WITH A COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS
IS MOVING QUICKLY TO THE EAST. HIGH PESSURE WITH MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE IN AFTER FROPA. ALL TAFS BUT BMG WILL START OUT VFR. BMG WILL
BECOME VFR BY 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE TAF. ON FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE PLAINS WITH A
WARM FRONT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

&&

.DISCUSSION..

FORECAST FOCUS ON CHANCES OF PRECIP THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN AN
ACTIVE PATTERN.

THIS MORNING THE SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A LARGE MCS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS CURRENTLY
SWEEPING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. ALOFT AT H5 THE PATTERN REMAINED
RATHER FLAT ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS. THE EXCEPTION WAS A SHARP
TROUGH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WAS HELPING TONIGHTS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

MODELS ARE SIMILAR TO ONE ANOTHER WITH MAV AND MET MOS NUMBERS
QUITE CLOSE. SO A BLEND WAS USED AND ACTUALLY THERE WERE NOT MANY
CHANGES NEEDED TODAY AS THE GOING FORECAST WAS HANDLING THINGS
WELL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR TODAY THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW LONG TO LEAVE POPS IN THIS
MORNING. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN
SHOULD ACTUALLY BE OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. SO WILL
GENERALLY KEEP POPS IN THROUGH 15-18Z AND THEN DRY IT OUT THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW BECOMES QUICKLY ZONAL AS THE UPPER TROUGH
WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST ENDING THE LIFT. TEMPS SHOULD ACTUALLY
MODERATE A BIT AS THE H8 VALUES WILL BE NEAR +12C WHICH WILL BRING
HIGHS INTO THE MID 70S.

TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE SOUTH. THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL STALL OUT WELL SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS.
THIS WILL BRING SOME OVERRUNNING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE SOUTH.LOWS
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STAYS UP AS DEWPOINTS STAY IN THE MIDDLE 50S AND CLOUDS REMAIN.

ON FRIDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND BRING A MORE HUMID
AIRMASS INTO PLACE. SCATTERED TSRA APPEAR POSSIBLE AS THERE WILL
BE SOME WEAK FORCING PROVIDED BY AN APPROACHING TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES. SWODY2 INDICATES A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA WHICH IS WHERE BETTER SHEAR WILL BE
PRESENT. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION SCATTERED POPS.

OVERNIGHT FRIDAY TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD AS THE FRONT LIFTS
TO OUR NORTH AND A LOW RUNS UP ALONG IT. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPS
OVERNIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 60S AND KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN GOING ALL
NIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES BY. HIGHEST POPS TO THE NORTH CLOSER TO
THE LOW WITH LIKELY POPS REMAINING THERE. THEN WILL KEEP LIKELY
POPS GOING ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW SLIDES SOUTH AS A STRONG H5
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE LAKES.

BEHIND THIS FRONT THINGS WILL GET MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MAKES AN UNSEASONABLE VISIT AND KEEPS HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 60S FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AVIATION...SH
PUBLIC...JOHNSON

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
603 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 AM     FLOOD            4 NW GREENCASTLE        39.68N 86.89W
05/14/2009                   PUTNAM             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            6 INCH DEEP WATER REPORTED ON COUNTY ROAD 350 N NEAR THE
            INTERSECTION WITH COUNTY ROAD 225 W

&&

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
614 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 WSW GREENWOOD         39.59N 86.18W
05/14/2009  M3.36 INCH       JOHNSON            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            COCORAHS OBSERVER MEASURED 3.36 INCHES OF RAIN FOR A 24
            HOUR PERIOD.

&&

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
617 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 S BROWNSBURG          39.78N 86.39W
05/14/2009  M1.96 INCH       HENDRICKS          IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            COCORAHS OBSERVER MEASURED 1.96 INCHES OF RAIN FOR A 24
            HOUR PERIOD WITH MINOR FLOODING OBSERVED.

&&

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
629 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 ENE JASONVILLE        39.18N 87.13W
05/14/2009  M2.66 INCH       CLAY               IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            COCORAHS OBSERVER MEASURED 2.66 INCHES OF RAIN FOR A 24
            HOUR PERIOD.

&&

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
630 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 AM     HEAVY RAIN       INDIANAPOLIS INTL AIRP 39.72N 86.29W
05/14/2009  M2.37 INCH       MARION             IN   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            RAINFALL MEASURED BY INDIANAPOLIS ASOS AS 2.37 INCHES FOR
            A 24 HOUR PERIOD. 1.47 HAS FALLEN SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
652 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 N SHOALS              38.71N 86.79W
05/14/2009                   MARTIN             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STATE HIGHWAY 450 FLOODED 3 NORTH OF SHOALS. ONE VEHICLE
            STRANDED.

&&

SHAINES