Special Weather Statement, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
654 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 311 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2009
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WITH THIS ROUND. FORECAST
RATIONAL REMAINS THE SAME WITH TWO SYSTEMS IN THE FORECAST AND THE
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT. ACTIVE ATMOSPHERE WITH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY INCREASING IN NEBRASKA...OKLAHOMA...ALABAMA...AND
SCATTERED ACTIVITY SPREADING OVER ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. FORECAST
REMAINS A BLEND OF MODEL INFORMATION AND THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE
REMAINS THE FIRST SYSTEM TODAY...LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND THE CHANCES FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECHARGE BEFORE
THE BEST DYNAMICS ARRIVE.

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TOMORROW...
SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING SO FAR IS A BIT LESS
ORGANIZED THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...THOUGH THE BROAD EXPANSE OF
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IS STILL ACROSS THE MISS RIVER VALLEY AND BACK
INTO THE PLAINS. WILD CARD FOR THIS AFTERNOONS THUNDERSTORMS AND
MODERATE RISK BY SPC IS STILL THE REMAINING CLOUD COVER KEEPING
INSTABILITY TO A MINIMUM. AT THIS POINT...THE GFS IS STILL PUSHING
A RATHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON AS THE CWA GETS PLENTY OF DIURNAL
HEATING IN A BIT OF A DRY SLOT AS A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE GETS
PUSHED TO THE NORTH. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS...THE WINDS INCREASE
TO THE S/SW AND BRING HIGHER DEPTS AND TEMPS. UPPER WAVE
APPROACHING AND WIND SHEAR PROFILES WILL HELP INITIAL TS
DEVELOPMENT ESTABLISH ROTATION. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOS.

LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT LOOMS CLOSER TO THE
REGION...TS WILL TAKE ON A MORE LINEAR LOOK WITH AN ENHANCED WIND
THREAT. NAM/WRF...AMONG OTHERS...RACE THROUGH A LINE BEFORE 06Z.
WHEREAS THE MODERATE RISK DOES NOT INCLUDE THE FAR ERN AND SERN
COUNTIES FOR ILX... THE ENHANCED WIND THREAT FOR THE DEVELOPED
LINE LATER TONIGHT WILL AFFECT THESE COUNTIES...AND SEVERE WORDING
IS MAINTAINED IN THE ZONES FOR THIS REASON.

PRECIP ENDING IN THE MORNING HOURS...AND TEMPS STAYING IN THE
LOWER 70S BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ONCE AGAIN...VERY LITTLE TO CHANGE FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN
WITH WAA SHOWERS AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP AND A WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH...WITH A COLD FRONT ON ITS HEELS FOR SATURDAY. MAIN
DIFFERENCE WITH THIS ONE IS THAT THE COLD FRONT AT THIS TIME IS
LOOKING TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER
DYNAMICS THAT THE SYSTEM TODAY.

HJS
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 653 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2009

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ONLY LAST FOR 2-3 HOURS...ABOUT 4HRS
AT CMI. THEN THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FOR ABOUT 6HOURS
FOR REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION THEN
RETURNS LATER THIS AFTERNOON STARTING AT AROUND 21Z AT PIA...SPI
AND DEC. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING OF ONSET OF PCPN AT
SITES SO WILL START WITH VCTS AND THEN HAVE TEMPO GROUP FOR TIME
PERIOD THAT APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT SITES TONIGHT. PCPN WILL
THEN END JUST BEFORE FROPA WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE AROUND MIDNIGHT
TOMORROW. 50KTS OF LLWS AT 1KFT THIS MORNING ON ILX SOUNDING...SO
HAVE ADDED WS IN FIRST PERIOD OF TAFS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GET
GUSTY LATER THIS MORNING AS STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...AND GRADIENT TIGHTENS. AFTER
FROPA...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY.

AUTEN
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
608 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2009

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047>053-141100-
CASS-CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-
MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-PEORIA-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-STARK-
TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
608 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD TO THE I-55 CORRIDOR BY THIS EVENING. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH THE
STORMS...ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF QUARTER-
SIZED...WINDS GREATER THAN 60 MPH...AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE
STORMS WILL PUSH INTO EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY LATER THIS EVENING.

THE ILLINOIS RIVER FROM PEORIA AND DOWNSTREAM WILL REMAIN IN
FLOOD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A SLOW FALL IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY FROM 3 PM TO 11 PM.

A CONFERENCE CALL WILL BE CONDUCTED FOR EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND THE
MEDIA AT 10 AM.

ILZ044>046-054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-141100-
CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-
EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-MOULTRIE-PIATT-RICHLAND-SHELBY-
VERMILION-
608 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH INTO EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS
THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF
QUARTER-SIZED AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE
STORMS WILL PUSH INTO INDIANA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING AFTER 6 PM.

A CONFERENCE CALL WILL BE CONDUCTED FOR EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND THE
MEDIA AT 1030 AM.

AUTEN

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
913 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2009

ILZ049-050-131500-
MORGAN-SCOTT-
913 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT AND SOUTHERN
MORGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 AM CDT...

AT 911 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MURRAYVILLE...OR 8 MILES EAST OF
WINCHESTER...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WOODSON...
  FRANKLIN...
  ALEXANDER...

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...LAKE JACKSONVILLE AND NORTONVILLE.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3974 9000 3954 8994 3953 9038 3967 9041
TIME...MOT...LOC 1413Z 254DEG 35KT 3961 9029

CHS