Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Lincoln, IL

000 
WWUS53 KILX 181055
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
555 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

ILC023-033-181106-
/O.EXP.KILX.SV.W.0075.000000T0000Z-090618T1100Z/
CRAWFORD IL-CLARK IL-
555 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN CLARK AND NORTHERN
CRAWFORD COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 600 AM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 3897 8754 3908 8796 3928 8795 3922 8758
      3921 8758 3915 8766 3912 8766 3906 8758
      3900 8758 3898 8754
TIME...MOT...LOC 1056Z 287DEG 18KT 3911 8763

$$

AUTEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
329 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

FORECAST CONCERN IS RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH MCS AND
FRIDAY WITH COLD FRONT. SPC UPGRADED TO MODERATE RISK FROM I-74
NORTH TODAY AND SLIGHT RISK SOUTH WHILE ALL OF CENTRAL/SE IL IN
MODERATE RISK FRIDAY. 00Z SHORT RANGE MODELS STILL NOT HANDLING
MESOSCALE FEATURE/MCS ACTIVITY WITH CONVECTION LIKE WITH MCS OVER
EASTERN IOWA AND NW IL. 00Z ECMWF MODEL SEEMS TO CAPTURE THIS MCS
THE BEST AND USED THIS MODEL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THIS
MODEL HAD A BETTER TRACK RECORD PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH NOT
PERFECT.

RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MCS OVER EASTERN HALF OF IA INTO NW IL AS FAR
SE AS THE IL RIVER AND MOVING ESE. THIS FUELED BY 35 TO 45 KT SW
LOW LEVEL JET AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS MOVING NE FROM MO. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SE IA. VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SE OF THE IL RIVER. 08Z/3 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS
1006 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE ERIE WITH ITS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH SOUTHERN OH/IN/IL AND THEN OVER NE MO
AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TO 1003 MB LOW PRESSURE IN SW NEBRASKA. A
SMALL MCS/CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS NORTH OF WARM FRONT OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHCENTRAL SD. DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 670S FROM PONTIAC AND DANVILLE NE TO NEAR 70F FROM GALESBURG
TO LINCOLN TO LAWRENCEVILLE SW. ALOFT A 593 DM 500 MB SUBTROPICAL
HIGH WAS OVER LA AND RIDGING INTO MO WHILE 571 DM 500 MB LOW WAS
OVER THE SE ONTARIO PENISULA AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF WAS OVER
THE ROCKIES.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THINK MCS WILL MOVE ESE ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL THIS MORNING
WITH CATAGORICAL POPS FROM PEORIA NORTH WHERE HEAVY RAINS AND
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. POPS TAPER OFF TO 30% FROM JACKSONVILLE TO
ROBINSON SOUTH THIS MORNING. MCS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING MIDDAY
WITH SOME SUNSHINE APPEARING AND WARMING TEMPS UP INTO THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S WITH WARMEST READINGS SW WHERE AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES AROUND 100F. THIS COMBINED WITH SULTRY DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S WILL GENERATE A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON WITH
CAPES OF 4000 J/KG OR HIGHER AND LIFTED INDICES OF MINUS 6 TO 9C.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKLEY DEVELOP NE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS NE INTO NE IL WHILE JUST SLIGHT CHANCE SW WHERE CAP
INCREASING WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN
IL.

CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH BEST
CHANCES SHIFTING NORTH OF CENTRAL IL WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE
GOOD CHANCE OF CONVECTION NORTH OF PEORIA TONIGHT CLOSER TO
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WHERE MORE MCS ACTIVITY POSSIBLE BUT FURTHER
NORTH THAN THIS MORNINGS MCS.

MODELS NOW TRENDING A BIT SLOWER WITH COLD FRONT MOVING SE INTO
CENTRAL IL FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AGAIN
WITH CAPES AGAIN ABOVE 4000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES OF MINUS 6 TO
10C. SPC HAS MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER CENTRAL/SE IL
FROM MID AFTERNOON TO MID EVENING FRI FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS BUT ALSO HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. COULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX EVENT FOR CENTRAL IL. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S AGAIN FRI WITH LAWRENCEVILLE AT 95F WHERE AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES PEAK FROM 100 TO 104F.

CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE AFTER MIDNIGHT
FRI NIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY DAWN SAT AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SAT MORNING.
LINGERED JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION SAT OVER EASTERN IL
THOUGH BEST CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF IL.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO IL ON SUNDAY/FATHERS DAY AND
00Z ECMWF MODELS KEEPS CENTRAL/SE IL DRY SUNDAY AND MON. THOUGH
00Z GFS HAS SOME QPF SUNDAY OVER CENTRAL IL WITH A SHORT WAVE
RIDGING OVER TOP OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. FOLLOWED ECMWF MODEL WHICH
KEEPS QPF NORTH OF CENTRAL IL SUNDAY. STILL FAIRLY WARM THIS WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER 80S.

HUETTL

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1203 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

LOW LEVEL JET BEGINNING TO CRANK UP OVER MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN
IOWA AS EVIDENCED BY LATHROP MISSOURI PROFILER. CONVECTION HAS
BECOME WIDELY SCATTERED OVER EASTERN IOWA AND WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS NEAR THE NOSE OF THE JET. ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO
BE TOWARD SUNRISE AS MCS CONGEALING OVER WESTERN IOWA APPROACHES.
MCS SHOULD BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF TS TO TAF SITES DURING THE
MORNING. THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG CONVECTION WILL LINGER. 00Z NAM
SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP WILL BE RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST IN WEAK
MID-LEVEL FLOW. THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY AND WILL END PRECIP FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE DAY. MCS WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED AND WILL NOT
FOCUS ON WIND SHIFT WITH PASSAGE. WINDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

BARKER
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
317 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2009

ILZ036-040-041-047>052-061-181200-
CASS-CHRISTIAN-FULTON-MASON-MENARD-MORGAN-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-
SHELBY-
317 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA...AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

FOR INTERESTS ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER...RIVER LEVELS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FROM HAVANA DOWNSTREAM INTO
NEXT WEEK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE DOWN THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING MORE THUNDERSTORMS
TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. DURING THIS PERIOD...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
THAT ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY RISKS AT THIS TIME.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH THE MID 90S IN MANY AREAS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ILZ027>031-037-038-042-043-181200-
DE WITT-KNOX-LOGAN-MARSHALL-MCLEAN-PEORIA-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
317 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE DOWN THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING MORE THUNDERSTORMS
TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. DURING THIS PERIOD...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
THAT ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY RISKS AT THIS TIME.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH THE MID 90S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ044>046-053>057-062-063-181200-
CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-COLES-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-MACON-MOULTRIE-
PIATT-VERMILION-
317 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...THEN
SHOULD MAINLY BE NORTH OF I-72 THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING MORE THUNDERSTORMS.
DURING THIS PERIOD...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT ANY OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY RISKS AT THIS TIME.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID 90S ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ066>068-071>073-181200-
CLAY-CRAWFORD-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
317 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA AND MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS TOWARD SUNRISE. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

FOR INTERESTS ALONG THE LITTLE WABASH RIVER...RIVER LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE TODAY AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN ON
FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING MORE
THUNDERSTORMS. DURING THIS PERIOD...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT
ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY RISKS AT THIS TIME.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 95 TO AROUND 100 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&
THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LINCOLN. THIS ADDRESS IS ALL IN LOWER CASE.

GEELHART

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
353 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

ILZ027>029-036-181000-
FULTON-KNOX-PEORIA-STARK-
353 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR KNOX...NORTHERN FULTON...PEORIA AND
STARK COUNTIES UNTIL 500 AM CDT...

AT 352 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MONMOUTH...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ABINGDON...
  GALESBURG...
  KNOXVILLE...
  GILSON...
  MAQUON...
  WILLIAMSFIELD...

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...DELONG...DAHINDA...MONICA AND
KICKAPOO.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 4115 8967 4056 8969 4058 9046 4109 9045
      4116 9044
TIME...MOT...LOC 0853Z 273DEG 42KT 4089 9061

AUTEN