Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Lincoln, IL

000 
WWUS53 KILX 022328
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
628 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

ILC101-022338-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0067.000000T0000Z-090603T0000Z/
LAWRENCE IL-
628 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND NO LONGER
APPEARED TO BE SEVERE.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM.

LAT...LON 3869 8753 3868 8755 3867 8758 3864 8762
      3860 8761 3857 8765 3857 8776 3864 8779
      3886 8754 3879 8750 3874 8750
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 231DEG 14KT 3868 8762

$$

SHIMON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
300 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

ANOTHER BUSY WEATHER DAY BEGINNING TO UNFOLD ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...WITH CONVECTION FIRING A FEW HOURS
SOONER THAN YESTERDAY. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A COMPLEX
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS ILLINOIS...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
ROUGHLY FROM QUINCY TO DANVILLE. NUMEROUS OTHER BOUNDARIES ARE
EVIDENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL...TO THE SOUTH OF THE COLD
FRONT...SOME INDUCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND OTHERS BY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS
REVOLVES AROUND THE DEPARTURE OF THE COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND THE
EVENTUAL END TO THE SHOWER/STORM RISK BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
THEN...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT FRONT AND SERIES OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES THAT WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA FOR PART OF THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
WEATHER FEATURES EXPECTED TO IMPACT FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WHILE SOME DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...THE
FORECAST TIME IS SHORT ENOUGH TO TRY AND IRON OUT THE DIFFERENCES
THROUGH MESOSCALE ANALYSIS AND EXTRAPOLATION.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE
FRONT IS BEING DRIVEN SOUTH BY A SHORT WAVE DIVING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SAME AREA. THE
FRONT WILL NOT MOVE ESPECIALLY QUICKLY DUE TO ITS NEARLY PARALLEL
ALIGNMENT TO THE UPPER FLOW...AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY
EJECTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM A DECAYING UPPER
LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE FRONT AND
VARIOUS UPPER IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES WILL STILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...THOUGH THE SETUP FOR TRAINING STORMS IS NOT AS FAVORABLE
AS LAST NIGHT. MODERATE INSTABILITY...CAPES OF 2-3K J/KG...AND WIND
PROFILES...0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KTS...SUPPORT STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
DIMINISH AS DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE
FRONT PULLS AWAY...BUT ADDITIONAL ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS UPPER LOW SHOULD CAUSE A WAVE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO
DEVELOP ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...SHOULD BE QUIET AS A LARGE/COOL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS/ENSEMBLES AGREE IN
PRINCIPLE FOR THE MOST PART...BUT STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN
THE DETAILS. THE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BE
BREAKING DOWN DURING THE PERIOD. A NORTHWEST FLOW/NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE WILL DRAG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE MIDWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL OUT. THEN...AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC BREAKS DOWN...NUMEROUS IMPULSES WILL EJECT OUT
OF A DECAYING UPPER LOW OFF CALIFORNIA AND CAUSE WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT. THERE IS MINIMAL MODEL AGREEMENT IN
THE TIMING OF THE EJECTED SHORT WAVES WHICH MAKES PREDICTING THE
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION VERY TRICKY. HOWEVER...THERE IS NOW ENOUGH
CLUSTERING/CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS TO CARRY A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED
TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT IF
THE FRONT STALLS APPRECIABLY NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED POSITION...ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED.

BAK
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1230 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

MOVED UP THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS 1 TO 2 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BEST CHANCES OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ALONG I-72 AT SPI...DEC
AND CMI WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THIS AFTERNOON. E/NE
WINDS COULD ALSO TURN MORE SOUTH FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON LIKE
SPI HAS CURRENTLY TURNED SE AS FRONT APPROACHES I-72. ISOLATED
CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KS MOVES E/NE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL IL
THIS EVENING. ALSO HAVE A DECENT SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO IL FROM
SOUTHERN IA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THIS KEEPS RISK
OF THUNDERSTORMS UP NORTH OVER PIA AND BMI. SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING BUT LOW CLOUDS LIKELY CONTINUE
ESPECIALLY SE OF THE IL RIVER/PIA WHERE MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS
POSSIBLE. NE WINDS NEAR 10 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z/1 PM WED
EXCEPT A BIT LIGHTER TONIGHT.

HUETTL
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
250 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

ILZ027>031-036>038-031200-
FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-MCLEAN-PEORIA-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
250 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING LATE
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING SOUTH OF PEORIA. THE PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE FROM DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN
TO DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT...AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER.

FOR INTERESTS ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER...FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THIS WEEK...BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE SEVERAL MORE
DAYS ALONG AND SOUTH OF PEORIA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN
LATER SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED UNTIL 8 PM TODAY SOUTH OF PEORIA.

ILZ040>057-061>063-031200-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-COLES-CUMBERLAND-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-
EDGAR-LOGAN-MACON-MASON-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PIATT-SANGAMON-
SCHUYLER-SCOTT-SHELBY-VERMILION-
250 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING
AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
HAIL...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER.

FOR INTERESTS ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER...FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THIS WEEK...BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE SEVERAL MORE
DAYS ALONG AND SOUTH OF PEORIA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING. NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN
LATER SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH 8 PM TODAY.

ILZ066>068-071>073-031200-
CLAY-CRAWFORD-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
250 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS THROUGH THIS EVENING. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. IN ADDITION...DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT INTO TONIGHT ALONG WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LINCOLN. THIS ADDRESS IS ALL IN LOWER CASE.

HUETTL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
503 PM CDT TUE JUN 02 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             3 S RIDGE FARM          39.85N 87.65W
06/02/2009  M0.88 INCH       EDGAR              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DPK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
507 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

ILZ045-046-055-057-022300-
CHAMPAIGN-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-VERMILION-
507 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHEASTERN DOUGLAS...NORTHERN
EDGAR...SOUTHEASTERN CHAMPAIGN AND SOUTHERN VERMILION COUNTIES UNTIL
600 PM CDT...

AT 503 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CHRISMAN...OR 15 MILES NORTH OF
PARIS...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG STORM 2 MILES WEST OF
NEWMAN...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED SOUTH OF RIDGE FARM WITH THE STORM
NEAR CHRISMAN. WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  NEWMAN...
  HUNE...
  METCALF...
  PALERMO...
  RIDGE FARM...

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...EDGAR AND SCOTTLAND.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3973 8821 3988 8819 3999 8753 3998 8753
      3973 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 265DEG 11KT 3983 8766

SHIMON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
516 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

ILZ041>043-047-048-051-053-022315-
CASS-DE WITT-LOGAN-MACON-MASON-MENARD-SANGAMON-
516 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR LOGAN...MENARD...NORTHEASTERN
CASS...NORTHEASTERN SANGAMON...NORTHERN MACON...SOUTHEASTERN MASON
AND SOUTHERN DE WITT COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 514 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
CHANDLERVILLE TO NIANTIC...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

PEOPLE IN CASS...DE WITT...LOGAN...MACON...MASON...MENARD AND
SANGAMON COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF ATHENS...WILLIAMSVILLE...
CORNLAND...PETERSBURG...DECATUR...WARRENSBURG...LATHAM...FORSYTH...
ELKHART AND MOUNT PULASKI...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 4029 8995 4014 8875 3983 8877 3999 9019
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 219DEG 19KT 3998 9007 3985 8911

BARKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
556 PM CDT TUE JUN 02 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     HAIL             DECATUR                 39.85N 88.93W
06/02/2009  E0.50 INCH       MACON              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DIME SIZED HAIL AT SOUTH SHORES

0535 PM     HAIL             DECATUR                 39.85N 88.93W
06/02/2009  E0.50 INCH       MACON              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LONG CREEK

&&

DPK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
607 PM CDT TUE JUN 02 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND GST     MOUNT CARMEL AIRPORT    38.61N 87.73W
06/02/2009  M75 MPH          LAWRENCE           IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORT VIA LAWRENCE COUNTY SHERIFF

&&

DPK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
611 PM CDT TUE JUN 02 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ELKHART                 40.02N 89.48W
06/02/2009                   LOGAN              IL   MESONET

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN...SWOP REPORT

&&

DPK